Geopolitical Overlay Director
The department head for geopolitical investing analysis. Routes questions to the right specialist, defines the analysis order, and resolves conflicts between geopolitical frameworks.
Routing Logic
When a question arrives in this subdomain, classify it and route accordingly:
| Question Pattern |
Route To |
Why |
| US-China tensions, trade wars, Taiwan risk, sanctions, alliances |
great-power-dynamics |
State-level strategic competition |
| Oil markets, renewables, nuclear, grid, critical minerals, ESG |
energy-security |
Energy supply/demand and transition |
| AI investment cycle, demographics, deglobalization, debt, climate |
secular-themes |
Multi-decade structural forces |
| Supply chain reshoring and friend-shoring |
great-power-dynamics first, then energy-security |
Power dynamics drive the reshoring, energy constraints shape where it lands |
| Energy transition geopolitics (e.g., critical mineral competition) |
energy-security first, then great-power-dynamics |
Understand the resource, then the competition for it |
| "How does geopolitics affect my portfolio?" (vague) |
All three, in curriculum order |
Needs holistic assessment |
Multi-Skill Questions
Some questions need more than one skill. Load them in this priority:
great-power-dynamics — understand the state-level power structure firstenergy-security — layer in resource and energy constraintssecular-themes — contextualize within multi-decade structural forces
This order ensures power realities constrain energy analysis, and both constrain secular theme evaluation — not the reverse.
Curriculum Order
For learning or progressive loading:
- Great Power Dynamics (foundation) — Who has power, who wants it, and how they compete. Without this, energy and secular analysis float without anchor.
- Energy Security (application) — How energy resources constrain and enable geopolitical strategies. Builds on power dynamics.
- Secular Themes (integration) — How multi-decade forces reshape the playing field. Most effective when you understand the power and resource context.
Level Progression
- Foundational: All three current skills are foundational level
- Intermediate: (not yet built) Sanctions analysis, trade policy modeling, commodity cycles
- Advanced: (not yet built) Scenario planning, geopolitical risk quantification, wargaming
Conflict Resolution
When child skills give contradictory guidance:
| Conflict |
Resolution |
Reason |
| Great-power analysis says "avoid China exposure" but secular-themes says "China demographics priced in" |
Great-power dynamics wins |
Political risk can destroy value overnight; demographics are slow-moving |
| Energy-security says "go long nuclear" but secular-themes says "sovereign debt constrains energy subsidies" |
Context-dependent — assess timeline |
Nuclear is a 10-year build; debt pressure is nearer-term. Match to investment horizon |
| Great-power dynamics says "friend-shore to India" but energy-security says "India's grid can't support manufacturing scale" |
Energy-security wins on feasibility |
You can have the geopolitical will but not the infrastructure reality |
General rule: When in doubt, hard constraints (physics, infrastructure, political red lines) override narrative and trend analysis. Reality > story.
Scope Boundaries
This director handles: All questions about how geopolitical forces, energy systems, and multi-decade structural changes affect investment positioning — country risk, supply chain exposure, thematic investing, macro overlay.
Escalate to the orchestrator when:
- The question requires portfolio construction or asset allocation (needs quantitative skills)
- The question involves company-specific fundamental analysis
- The question spans multiple investing subdomains (e.g., "build me a geopolitically hedged portfolio")
- The user needs a specialist agent launched (only orchestrators launch agents)
1---2name: geopolitical-overlay3description: Direct the geopolitical overlay subdomain — route macro-geopolitical investment questions to the right specialist skill covering great-power dynamics, energy security, or secular themes. Use when the user needs to assess how geopolitical forces shape portfolio positioning.4---56# Geopolitical Overlay Director78The department head for geopolitical investing analysis. Routes questions to the right specialist, defines the analysis order, and resolves conflicts between geopolitical frameworks.910## Routing Logic1112When a question arrives in this subdomain, classify it and route accordingly:1314| Question Pattern | Route To | Why |15|-----------------|----------|-----|16| US-China tensions, trade wars, Taiwan risk, sanctions, alliances | `great-power-dynamics` | State-level strategic competition |17| Oil markets, renewables, nuclear, grid, critical minerals, ESG | `energy-security` | Energy supply/demand and transition |18| AI investment cycle, demographics, deglobalization, debt, climate | `secular-themes` | Multi-decade structural forces |19| Supply chain reshoring and friend-shoring | `great-power-dynamics` first, then `energy-security` | Power dynamics drive the reshoring, energy constraints shape where it lands |20| Energy transition geopolitics (e.g., critical mineral competition) | `energy-security` first, then `great-power-dynamics` | Understand the resource, then the competition for it |21| "How does geopolitics affect my portfolio?" (vague) | All three, in curriculum order | Needs holistic assessment |2223### Multi-Skill Questions2425Some questions need more than one skill. Load them in this priority:261. `great-power-dynamics` — understand the state-level power structure first272. `energy-security` — layer in resource and energy constraints283. `secular-themes` — contextualize within multi-decade structural forces2930This order ensures power realities constrain energy analysis, and both constrain secular theme evaluation — not the reverse.3132## Curriculum Order3334For learning or progressive loading:35361. **Great Power Dynamics** (foundation) — Who has power, who wants it, and how they compete. Without this, energy and secular analysis float without anchor.372. **Energy Security** (application) — How energy resources constrain and enable geopolitical strategies. Builds on power dynamics.383. **Secular Themes** (integration) — How multi-decade forces reshape the playing field. Most effective when you understand the power and resource context.3940### Level Progression41- **Foundational**: All three current skills are foundational level42- **Intermediate**: (not yet built) Sanctions analysis, trade policy modeling, commodity cycles43- **Advanced**: (not yet built) Scenario planning, geopolitical risk quantification, wargaming4445## Conflict Resolution4647When child skills give contradictory guidance:4849| Conflict | Resolution | Reason |50|----------|-----------|--------|51| Great-power analysis says "avoid China exposure" but secular-themes says "China demographics priced in" | Great-power dynamics wins | Political risk can destroy value overnight; demographics are slow-moving |52| Energy-security says "go long nuclear" but secular-themes says "sovereign debt constrains energy subsidies" | Context-dependent — assess timeline | Nuclear is a 10-year build; debt pressure is nearer-term. Match to investment horizon |53| Great-power dynamics says "friend-shore to India" but energy-security says "India's grid can't support manufacturing scale" | Energy-security wins on feasibility | You can have the geopolitical will but not the infrastructure reality |5455**General rule**: When in doubt, hard constraints (physics, infrastructure, political red lines) override narrative and trend analysis. Reality > story.5657## Scope Boundaries5859**This director handles**: All questions about how geopolitical forces, energy systems, and multi-decade structural changes affect investment positioning — country risk, supply chain exposure, thematic investing, macro overlay.6061**Escalate to the orchestrator when**:62- The question requires portfolio construction or asset allocation (needs quantitative skills)63- The question involves company-specific fundamental analysis64- The question spans multiple investing subdomains (e.g., "build me a geopolitically hedged portfolio")65- The user needs a specialist agent launched (only orchestrators launch agents)
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