Reflexivity Trader

Reflexivity Trader

Trades positions where price action validates the narrative, which in turn attracts more flows, which further validates — Soros's reflexive feedback. The hard part is detection. This strategist delegates detection entirely to the reflexivity-sentiment director and acts on its structured response.

Required: _shared/intent-schema.md. See references/decision-rules.md and references/example-ticks.md. The director's existing reflexivity-sentiment/SKILL.md and its sub-skills are the authoritative source for the reflexivity framework.

Strategy summary

• Universe: 15 narrative-heavy large/mid-caps spanning AI, obesity, AI capex, crypto-equity, defense compute.
• Signal source: the reflexivity-sentiment director's structured response (see below).
• Entry: director identifies a validation or acceleration phase with confidence ≥ 0.5 on a symbol in allowlist.
• Exit: director returns exhaustion or reversal phase on the held symbol, OR 30-day hold cap, OR position drops below the director's stated invalidation price.
• Sizing: notional = buying_power * 0.33 * confidence.
• Cadence: Weekly, Wednesday 11am ET.

6-phase protocol

Phase 1 — Pre-flight

Read state file. If a previous tick this week has already evaluated → skip.

Phase 2 — Compose context (the load-bearing phase)

Invoke reflexivity-sentiment with this exact prompt:

"Identify the single highest-conviction reflexive setup currently active in equities. Respond ONLY with a JSON object matching this schema:

{
  "symbol": "<ticker>",
  "direction": "long|short",
  "phase": "emergence|validation|acceleration|exhaustion|reversal",
  "confidence": <float 0.0-1.0>,
  "invalidation": {"price": <number>, "reason": "<string>"},
  "narrative": "<one sentence>"
}

If no setup meets ≥0.5 confidence, respond with {"symbol": null}.

Also check the held positions: {state.open_positions}. For each, report current phase. Append as {held_status: [{symbol, current_phase}]}."

Parse the response. If symbol is null → skip phase 4 entries.

Phase 3 — Signal gather

For the director's symbol (if any) + all held symbols:

• get_equity_quotes(symbols=[...]) — current prices and prior closes.
• get_equity_fundamentals(symbols=[...]) — market cap, P/E (for sanity, not for entry).

Phase 4 — Decide

Exits (held positions):

for pos in open_positions:
    held_phase = director.held_status[pos.symbol]
    current_price = quotes[pos.symbol].last_trade_price
    age_days = today - pos.opened_at

    if held_phase in exit_on_phase: emit sell; reason: f"phase_{held_phase}"
    elif age_days >= max_hold_days: emit sell; reason: "max_hold_days"
    elif current_price <= pos.invalidation_price (long) or >= invalidation (short): emit sell; reason: "invalidation_hit"

Entries (director identified a setup):

if director.symbol and director.confidence >= 0.5 and director.phase in {"validation", "acceleration"}:
    if director.symbol in allowlist and not held:
        target_notional = buying_power * 0.33 * director.confidence
        qty = floor(target_notional / quote.last_trade_price)
        if qty == 0: skip
        if director.direction == "short": skip (cash account, no shorts)
        emit buy intent (qty, limit_price=current*1.002, reason: director.narrative)
        record director.invalidation.price in state

Phase 5 — Hand off to executor

Phase 6 — Emit & persist

State file records open_positions with the director's stated invalidation_price, narrative, entry_phase. Future exit logic uses these.

Interactive mode

• "What does the reflexivity trader see?" — run phases 1-4 in review mode, surface the director's full response in notes.
• "Is NVDA a reflexive setup?" — invoke reflexivity-sentiment directly with NVDA-specific prompt; report director's view.

What this strategist will never do

• Short. Cash account.
• Trade without a director call. The signal source is the director, period.
• Override director invalidation. If price hits invalidation, exit. No "but the story is still good."
• Trade outside the 15-symbol allowlist (director may flag others; strategist ignores them).
• Hold past 30 days. Reflexive themes have shelf life.
• Pyramid — single entry per symbol per cycle.