Deal Risk Assessment

Deal Risk Assessment

Purpose

Systematically evaluate the health of active deals in the Talosix sales pipeline. Identify risks early, recommend corrective actions, and improve forecast accuracy by replacing gut-feel assessments with structured analysis grounded in clinical trial EDC sales patterns.

When to Use

• Weekly pipeline review and deal inspection
• Before updating forecast commitments
• When a deal shows signs of stalling or going silent
• Before requesting executive involvement or resources
• Quarterly pipeline health assessments

Information Gathering

For each deal being assessed, collect:

1. Opportunity Details - Deal name, prospect company, deal value, stage, close date
2. Timeline - Days in current stage, total days in pipeline, original vs. current close date
3. Stakeholders - Identified contacts, their roles, engagement level
4. Activities - Recent meetings, emails, demos, evaluations
5. Competitive Landscape - Known competitors, prospect's incumbent vendor
6. Next Steps - Agreed-upon next action and date
7. Champion Status - Who is the internal champion, how active are they
8. Technical Evaluation - Status of any POC, pilot, or technical review
9. Procurement - Status of legal/procurement engagement, MSA review

Scoring Framework

Score each deal across these dimensions on a 1-5 scale (1 = high risk, 5 = low risk):

1. Champion Strength (Weight: 25%)

2. Decision Process Clarity (Weight: 20%)

3. Compelling Event (Weight: 20%)

4. Technical Fit (Weight: 15%)

5. Competitive Position (Weight: 10%)

6. Engagement Recency (Weight: 10%)

Overall Score Calculation

Deal Health Score = (Champion x 0.25) + (Decision Process x 0.20) +
                   (Compelling Event x 0.20) + (Technical Fit x 0.15) +
                   (Competitive Position x 0.10) + (Engagement x 0.10)

Score Interpretation

Red Flags

Automatically flag deals exhibiting any of these patterns:

Immediate Action Required

• Ghost Champion - Champion has not responded in 14+ days
• Close Date Slippage - Close date pushed more than twice
• Single-Threaded - Only one contact engaged, no multi-stakeholder access
• No Next Step - No agreed-upon next action with a date
• Procurement Stall - Legal/procurement engaged but no progress in 21+ days

Warning Signs

• Expanding Evaluation - Prospect adds new competitors late in the process
• Stakeholder Turnover - Key contact leaves or changes roles during evaluation
• Scope Creep - Requirements expanding without corresponding budget discussion
• Delayed POC - Technical evaluation keeps getting postponed
• Budget Uncertainty - No budget confirmed or "still working on budget" after discovery
• Committee Decision - Decision shifted from individual to committee
• Unusual Silence After Demo - No follow-up questions after a demo (often means they're not serious or chose a competitor)

Clinical Trial EDC-Specific Red Flags

• Study Already Started - Prospect's study has already begun enrollment with another EDC (switching mid-study is rare)
• CRO Mandate - Prospect's CRO has a preferred/mandated EDC vendor
• Enterprise Agreement - Prospect has an enterprise license with incumbent that covers EDC
• Regulatory Filing Dependency - Prospect is mid-submission and reluctant to change systems
• Validation Concerns - IT/QA team has raised CSV burden as a significant concern

Recommended Actions by Risk Level

Strong (4.5-5.0)

• Maintain momentum, don't over-manage
• Prepare for contracting and implementation planning
• Ask champion to confirm timeline with procurement
• Schedule executive alignment meeting

Healthy (3.5-4.4)

• Address the lowest-scoring dimension specifically
• Expand stakeholder engagement to reduce single-thread risk
• Confirm compelling event and quantify cost of inaction
• Request access to procurement/legal to start MSA review

At Risk (2.5-3.4)

• Conduct an honest assessment of whether this deal is real
• Develop a champion or find a new one
• Create urgency through a time-bound offer or reference visit
• Involve sales leadership for strategy session
• Consider requesting an executive-to-executive meeting

Troubled (1.5-2.4)

• Escalate to sales leadership for go/no-go decision
• Reduce time investment unless a clear path to recovery exists
• Attempt a "pattern interrupt" (new stakeholder, new angle, executive outreach)
• Move to nurture if no improvement within 2 weeks

Critical (1.0-1.4)

• Remove from active forecast immediately
• Move to long-term nurture or close-lost
• Document lessons learned for similar future opportunities
• Redirect resources to healthier deals

Pipeline Forecast Methodology

Weighted Pipeline Calculation

Weighted Value = Deal Value x Stage Probability x (Health Score / 5)

Stage probabilities for clinical trial EDC sales:

Adjust base probability up or down by the health score ratio to get a more realistic weighted pipeline.

Output Format

Deliver deal risk assessments as:

1. Individual Deal Scorecard - One-page scoring with dimension breakdown, red flags, and recommended actions
2. Pipeline Risk Summary - Table of all active deals with scores, ratings, and top risk per deal
3. Forecast Adjustment Recommendations - Which deals to move between forecast categories based on assessment
4. Action Plan - Prioritized list of actions across the pipeline, sorted by deal value and urgency