octagonai Prediction Markets Analysis
Generate comprehensive research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. This skill combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to identify mispricings, surface price drivers, and provide actionable trading insights.
Prerequisites
Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.
Note: Report generation requires Octagon Plus, Pro, or Enterprise subscription (3 credits per report). Cached reports are free for all users.
Core Functionality
The Prediction Markets Agent provides:
| Capability | Description |
|---|---|
| Market vs. Model Probability | Computes independent model probability and compares against live market price |
| Event-Driven Research | Identifies key claims, catalysts, and decision-flipping events |
| Historical Resolution Tracking | Surfaces past resolution outcomes for context on base rates |
| Contract Snapshot | Returns live bid/ask spreads, last traded price, volume, and open interest |
| Cross-Category Coverage | 120+ active markets across Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate |
Model Variants
| Variant | Description | Use Case |
|---|---|---|
octagon-prediction-markets-agent |
Default. Returns cached report if available, otherwise generates new | General use |
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:cache |
Always retrieves cached report | Fastest response, may not be latest |
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:refresh |
Always generates fresh report | Most up-to-date, takes several minutes |
Example Queries
Federal Reserve Policy
Analyze this Fed decision prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun
Cryptocurrency Price Range
Research this Bitcoin price prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01
Sports Matchup
Analyze this NHL playoff prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhleast/eastern-conference-championship/kxnhleast-26
Entertainment Awards
Research this Grammy nomination market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrammynomsoty/grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year/kxgrammynomsoty-69
IPO Timing
Analyze when SpaceX will IPO: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipospacex/when-will-spacex-ipo/kxipospacex
Force Fresh Report
Generate a fresh report (bypass cache) for: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01
Example Response Structure
## Market Overview
- **Event**: Fed Decision June 2026
- **Resolution Date**: June 18, 2026
- **Current Market Price**: 72% (Hold rates)
- **Model Probability**: 68%
- **Mispricing Signal**: Market slightly overpriced
## Price Drivers
1. **Recent Economic Data**: CPI trending lower, supporting rate hold
2. **Fed Communications**: Dovish tone in recent FOMC minutes
3. **Labor Market**: Unemployment stable at 4.1%
## Key Catalysts
| Date | Event | Potential Impact |
|------|-------|------------------|
| June 10 | CPI Release | High - could shift probabilities 5-10% |
| June 12 | FOMC Statement | Medium - language on future path |
## Historical Resolution Context
- Last 6 meetings: 4 holds, 2 cuts
- Model accuracy on this series: 78%
## Contract Details
| Outcome | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | OI |
|---------|-----|-----|------|--------|-----|
| Hold | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 15,234 | 89,000 |
| Cut 25bp | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 8,456 | 45,000 |
| Hike | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 2,100 | 12,000 |
## Recommendation
**Slight Sell** on Hold contract. Model sees 4% overpricing. Consider waiting for CPI data before positioning.
Market Categories
The agent covers 120+ active markets across:
| Category | Example Markets |
|---|---|
| Politics | Elections, legislation, executive actions |
| Economics | Fed decisions, inflation, employment data |
| Crypto | Bitcoin/Ethereum price ranges, ETF approvals |
| Sports | Championship outcomes, playoff matchups |
| Entertainment | Awards shows, box office, streaming |
| Science & Tech | Space launches, AI milestones, IPO timing |
| Climate | Temperature records, hurricane landfalls |
Use Cases
Identify Mispricings
Compare crowd consensus against model-derived probability to find trading opportunities.
Pre-Trade Research
Research key drivers behind a prediction market price before placing a trade.
Catalyst Monitoring
Monitor upcoming events that could move contract prices.
Event Analysis
Get structured, sourced research on fast-moving events in politics, finance, and beyond.
Historical Data Access
Use the prediction_markets_history tool to fetch historical data:
Fetch historical data for prediction market ticker KXFEDDECISION-26JUN from January to June 2026
Parameters:
ticker: Market ticker symbolcaptured_from: Start date filtercaptured_to: End date filterlimit: Number of recordscursor: Pagination cursor
Integration with Other Skills
Combine with other Octagon skills for comprehensive analysis:
| Skill | Integration Use |
|---|---|
earnings-call-analysis |
Analyze CEO comments relevant to prediction market events |
sec-8k-analysis |
Track material events that could impact market outcomes |
stock-performance |
Correlate stock moves with prediction market probabilities |
Analysis Tips
Check model vs. market spread: Larger spreads suggest potential mispricings
Monitor catalyst calendar: Know when decision-flipping events are scheduled
Review resolution history: Past accuracy provides context for current probabilities
Consider liquidity: Check volume and open interest before sizing positions
Use cache wisely: Use
:cachefor quick checks,:refreshbefore tradingCross-reference sources: Combine prediction market analysis with fundamental research
Supported Platforms
- Kalshi: Full support for all active markets
- Polymarket: Coming soon
For More Markets
Browse the full list of supported markets at octagonai.co/markets.