octagonai Prediction Markets Analysis
Generate comprehensive research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. This skill combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to identify mispricings, surface price drivers, and provide actionable trading insights.
Prerequisites
Ensure the Octagon Claude plugin is installed and configured in Claude Code before invoking this skill.
Note: Report generation requires Octagon Plus, Pro, or Enterprise subscription (3 credits per report). Cached reports are free for all users.
Core Functionality
The Prediction Markets Agent provides:
| Capability | Description |
|---|---|
| Market vs. Model Probability | Computes independent model probability and compares against live market price |
| Event-Driven Research | Identifies key claims, catalysts, and decision-flipping events |
| Historical Resolution Tracking | Surfaces past resolution outcomes for context on base rates |
| Contract Snapshot | Returns live bid/ask spreads, last traded price, volume, and open interest |
| Cross-Category Coverage | 120+ active markets across Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate |
Model Variants
| Variant | Description | Use Case |
|---|---|---|
octagon-prediction-markets-agent |
Default. Returns cached report if available, otherwise generates new | General use |
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:cache |
Always retrieves cached report | Fastest response, may not be latest |
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:refresh |
Always generates fresh report | Most up-to-date, takes several minutes |
Example Queries
Federal Reserve Policy
Analyze this Fed decision prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun
Cryptocurrency Price Range
Research this Bitcoin price prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01
Sports Matchup
Analyze this NHL playoff prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhleast/eastern-conference-championship/kxnhleast-26
Entertainment Awards
Research this Grammy nomination market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrammynomsoty/grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year/kxgrammynomsoty-69
IPO Timing
Analyze when SpaceX will IPO: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipospacex/when-will-spacex-ipo/kxipospacex
Force Fresh Report
Generate a fresh report (bypass cache) for: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01
Example Response Structure
## Market Overview
- **Event**: Fed Decision June 2026
- **Resolution Date**: June 18, 2026
- **Current Market Price**: 72% (Hold rates)
- **Model Probability**: 68%
- **Mispricing Signal**: Market slightly overpriced
## Price Drivers
1. **Recent Economic Data**: CPI trending lower, supporting rate hold
2. **Fed Communications**: Dovish tone in recent FOMC minutes
3. **Labor Market**: Unemployment stable at 4.1%
## Key Catalysts
| Date | Event | Potential Impact |
|------|-------|------------------|
| June 10 | CPI Release | High - could shift probabilities 5-10% |
| June 12 | FOMC Statement | Medium - language on future path |
## Historical Resolution Context
- Last 6 meetings: 4 holds, 2 cuts
- Model accuracy on this series: 78%
## Contract Details
| Outcome | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | OI |
|---------|-----|-----|------|--------|-----|
| Hold | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 15,234 | 89,000 |
| Cut 25bp | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 8,456 | 45,000 |
| Hike | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 2,100 | 12,000 |
## Recommendation
**Slight Sell** on Hold contract. Model sees 4% overpricing. Consider waiting for CPI data before positioning.
Market Categories
The agent covers 120+ active markets across:
| Category | Example Markets |
|---|---|
| Politics | Elections, legislation, executive actions |
| Economics | Fed decisions, inflation, employment data |
| Crypto | Bitcoin/Ethereum price ranges, ETF approvals |
| Sports | Championship outcomes, playoff matchups |
| Entertainment | Awards shows, box office, streaming |
| Science & Tech | Space launches, AI milestones, IPO timing |
| Climate | Temperature records, hurricane landfalls |
Use Cases
Identify Mispricings
Compare crowd consensus against model-derived probability to find trading opportunities.
Pre-Trade Research
Research key drivers behind a prediction market price before placing a trade.
Catalyst Monitoring
Monitor upcoming events that could move contract prices.
Event Analysis
Get structured, sourced research on fast-moving events in politics, finance, and beyond.
Historical Data Access
Use the prediction_markets_history tool to fetch historical data:
Fetch historical data for prediction market ticker KXFEDDECISION-26JUN from January to June 2026
Parameters:
ticker: Market ticker symbolcaptured_from: Start date filtercaptured_to: End date filterlimit: Number of recordscursor: Pagination cursor
Integration with Other Skills
Combine with other Octagon skills for comprehensive analysis:
| Skill | Integration Use |
|---|---|
earnings-call-analysis |
Analyze CEO comments relevant to prediction market events |
sec-8k-analysis |
Track material events that could impact market outcomes |
stock-performance |
Correlate stock moves with prediction market probabilities |
Analysis Tips
Check model vs. market spread: Larger spreads suggest potential mispricings
Monitor catalyst calendar: Know when decision-flipping events are scheduled
Review resolution history: Past accuracy provides context for current probabilities
Consider liquidity: Check volume and open interest before sizing positions
Use cache wisely: Use
:cachefor quick checks,:refreshbefore tradingCross-reference sources: Combine prediction market analysis with fundamental research
Supported Platforms
- Kalshi: Full support for all active markets
- Polymarket: Coming soon
For More Markets
Browse the full list of supported markets at octagonai.co/markets.