Omicverse Single Cell Cellrank Fate

OmicVerse Single-Cell — CellRank Fate Maps from RNA Velocity

Goal

Take a single-cell AnnData that already has RNA velocity computed (adata.layers['velocity'], adata.uns['velocity_graph'], etc.) and produce a fate map: terminal-state assignments, per-cell fate probabilities, and branch-aware marker dynamics. CellRank does the velocity-driven random-walk side; OmicVerse plotting + dynamic_features does the visualisation and gene-trend side.

This skill is the post-velocity skill: assumes velocity is already computed (use single-cell-rna-velocity for that). It pairs CellRank's VelocityKernel + ConnectivityKernel mix with the same dynamic_features GAM backend used by Monocle / VIA / etc., so plot helpers (branch_streamplot, dynamic_trends, dynamic_heatmap) are interoperable across all trajectory skills.

Quick Workflow

1. Confirm velocity is already in adata.layers['velocity'] and adata.uns['velocity_graph'] is populated. The pancreas endocrinogenesis dataset (scv.datasets.pancreas) is the canonical demo.
2. Build the transition matrix by mixing kernels:

   vk = cr.kernels.VelocityKernel(adata).compute_transition_matrix()
   ck = cr.kernels.ConnectivityKernel(adata).compute_transition_matrix()
   kernel = 0.8 * vk + 0.2 * ck
   

   Velocity gives directionality; connectivity smooths over noise. The 80/20 mix is canonical.
3. Fit a GPCCA estimator: g = cr.estimators.GPCCA(kernel). g.compute_macrostates(n_states=6, cluster_key='clusters') clusters the spectral decomposition; the resulting macrostates are candidates for terminal states.
4. Predict terminal states: g.predict_terminal_states(n_states=4). Fewer terminals = more confidence per terminal; pick n_states from biological knowledge (4 for pancreas endocrine: Alpha / Beta / Delta / Epsilon, with the trunk macrostates excluded).
5. Fate probabilities: g.fate_probabilities is an (n_cells, n_terminals) DataFrame; pull a per-terminal probability and write to adata.obs for plotting: adata.obs['beta_fate'] = np.asarray(g.fate_probabilities['Beta']).ravel().
6. Branch streamplot of pseudotime by cluster: ov.pl.branch_streamplot(adata, group_key='clusters', pseudotime_key='development_pseudotime', trunk_groups=[...], branch_center=0.62, ...).
7. Embedding-coloured fate: ov.pl.embedding(adata, basis='X_umap', color=['clusters', 'beta_fate'], cmap='Reds', frameon='small').
8. Per-fate gene trends: filter cells to the fate of interest (adata_beta = adata[adata.obs['beta_fate'] > 0.15]), then run ov.single.dynamic_features(adata_beta, genes=[...], pseudotime='development_pseudotime', layer='Ms', ...) and plot with ov.pl.dynamic_trends(compare_features=True, ...). The Ms layer (smoothed-spliced from scvelo) is the appropriate input for velocity-derived workflows.
9. Branch-aware comparison between two terminal-state fates (e.g. Alpha vs Beta in pancreas): pass groupby='clusters', groups=branch_clusters to dynamic_features, then plot with compare_groups=True, split_time=<trunk-end>, shared_trunk=True.
10. Multi-module dynamic heatmap: organise marker genes into named programs ({'Endocrine progenitor': [...], 'Alpha fate': [...], ...}) and pass to ov.pl.dynamic_heatmap(var_names=<dict>, ...) for a panel-style figure.
11. Unified trajectory overlay (optional): after velocity_pseudotime is in adata.obs, draw the CellRank-derived PAGA backbone with ov.pl.trajectory(adata, method='cellrank', ...) or overlay it on an existing UMAP via ov.pl.trajectory_overlay(adata, ax=ax, method='cellrank'). Useful for placing the kernel-projection figure and the topology figure side by side.

Interface Summary

External (CellRank — pip install cellrank):

• cr.kernels.VelocityKernel(adata).compute_transition_matrix().
• cr.kernels.ConnectivityKernel(adata).compute_transition_matrix().
• Kernel arithmetic: 0.8 * vk + 0.2 * ck returns a combined kernel (CellRank operator-overloads).
• cr.estimators.GPCCA(kernel).
  • .compute_macrostates(n_states=N, cluster_key='clusters').
  • .predict_terminal_states(n_states=k).
  • .fate_probabilities (DataFrame; (n_cells, n_terminals)).
  • .macrostates, .terminal_states — categorical columns.

OmicVerse-side (this skill's contribution):

• ov.pl.trajectory(adata, *, method='cellrank', basis='X_umap', color=...) — unified trajectory backbone plot, shared with the other trajectory skills (commit 4f28ab6). Use method='cellrank' so the development-pseudotime / fate-driven topology is rendered consistently with diffusion / slingshot / palantir / monocle / sctour.
• ov.pl.trajectory_overlay(adata, *, ax, method='cellrank', ...) — overlay the CellRank-derived PAGA backbone on an existing ov.pl.embedding(...) axis. Useful for composing a velocity-stream view and a graph-overlay view in one figure.
• ov.pl.branch_streamplot(adata, *, group_key, pseudotime_key, trunk_groups=[...], branch_center=0.5, figsize=..., xlabel=..., show=True) — stream + branch view of per-cluster pseudotime.
• ov.pl.embedding(adata, *, basis='X_umap', color=[...], cmap='Reds', frameon='small') — generic embedding plot; colour by fate probability.
• ov.single.dynamic_features(adata, genes, pseudotime, *, layer='Ms', groupby=None, groups=None, n_splines=8, store_raw=True, raw_obs_keys=...) — same API as the trajectory skills, but layer='Ms' is the key choice for velocity workflows.
• ov.pl.dynamic_trends(res, *, genes, compare_features=False, compare_groups=False, split_time=None, shared_trunk=True, add_point=True, point_color_by=..., line_style_by=..., ...).
• ov.pl.dynamic_heatmap(adata, *, var_names: dict|list, pseudotime, layer='Ms', cell_annotation, ..., use_fitted=True, ...).

Boundary

Inside scope:

• Building VelocityKernel + ConnectivityKernel mixes; choosing weights.
• GPCCA macrostate computation + terminal-state prediction.
• Pulling fate probabilities into adata.obs and plotting.
• Branch-aware gene-trend plots filtered by fate probability or terminal cluster.
• Multi-module dynamic heatmap.

Outside scope — separate skill:

• Computing RNA velocity itself — see single-cell-rna-velocity (existing skill; covers scvelo / dynamo / latentvelo / graphvelo).
• Other estimators: CFLARE, Schur — only GPCCA is documented here (the canonical CellRank 2 estimator).
• VIA / Monocle / diffusion / slingshot / palantir / scTour — see the per-method skills.
• Building the embedding (UMAP / FA2 / PHATE) — preprocessing skill.

Branch Selection

Kernel mix (0.8 * vk + 0.2 * ck)

• Default tutorial mix: 80 % velocity, 20 % connectivity. Velocity drives directionality; connectivity bridges sparse-graph regions.
• 100 % velocity (vk alone): pure velocity-driven; works on dense, well-estimated velocities (e.g. Smart-seq2). Often too noisy on shallow 10x data.
• 50/50 mix: when velocity confidence is moderate; gives connectivity more weight to smooth out noise.
• 100 % connectivity (ck alone): no velocity at all — equivalent to a graph-based pseudotime; use only as a sanity baseline.

n_states for compute_macrostates

• Run with n_states=6–10 first; inspect g.macrostates.cat.categories. Macrostates that look like trunks (high in-flow, low out-flow) are not terminal candidates.
• Then predict_terminal_states(n_states=k) where k is your biological estimate (e.g. 4 endocrine fates for pancreas).

n_states for predict_terminal_states

• Use biological knowledge: count distinct terminal cell types you expect from the cohort.
• Pancreas endocrinogenesis: 4 (Alpha / Beta / Delta / Epsilon) typically.
• Hematopoietic: 4–6 depending on cohort scope.
• Wrong: choosing n_states based on macrostate count alone — macrostates include trunks.

Fate probability cutoff for filtering

• 0.15 (tutorial default) — keep cells with at least 15 % probability of the chosen fate.
• 0.05 — looser; includes more cells (better for noisy GAM fits).
• 0.5 — strict; only confident-fate cells (cleaner trends but fewer cells, may under-fit).

pseudotime_key for branch_streamplot / dynamic_features

• 'development_pseudotime' — when scvelo wrote it (scv.tl.velocity_pseudotime).
• 'velocity_pseudotime' — same data, different naming convention.
• 'dpt_pseudotime' — diffusion pseudotime (alternative; produces a different ordering).
• For CellRank-driven analysis, prefer velocity_pseudotime so the timing axis is consistent with the kernel.

layer='Ms' is critical: the smoothed spliced layer from scvelo. Don't pass 'spliced' (raw, noisy) or 'velocity' (vector, not expression). Without layer='Ms', dynamic_features falls back to adata.X which is usually the wrong scale for post-velocity plotting.

Branch-aware vs single-fate trends

• Single-fate (adata_beta = adata[fate > threshold]): clean trends per terminal; doesn't show divergence.
• Branch-aware (groupby='clusters', groups=[branch_a, branch_b], compare_groups=True, shared_trunk=True): shows where two fates diverge; needs a sensible split_time (median pseudotime of the trunk clusters).

Input Contract

• AnnData with RNA velocity already computed:
  • adata.layers['velocity'] populated.
  • adata.uns['velocity_graph'] (or equivalent) for VelocityKernel.
  • adata.obs['development_pseudotime'] (or velocity_pseudotime) for branch_streamplot / dynamic_features.
  • adata.layers['Ms'] (smoothed spliced) for dynamic_features(layer='Ms', ...).
  • adata.obs['clusters'] (or any cell-type column) populated.
• pip install cellrank (the omicverse install does not ship CellRank by default).
• Embedding (X_umap / X_pca) for the visualisation steps.

Minimal Execution Patterns

import omicverse as ov
import scanpy as sc
import scvelo as scv
import cellrank as cr
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

ov.plot_set(font_path='Arial')

# Assume velocity has already been computed (see single-cell-rna-velocity skill)
# adata.layers['velocity'], adata.uns['velocity_graph'],
# adata.obs['development_pseudotime'], adata.layers['Ms'], adata.obs['clusters']

# 1) Build the kernel mix
vk = cr.kernels.VelocityKernel(adata).compute_transition_matrix()
ck = cr.kernels.ConnectivityKernel(adata).compute_transition_matrix()
kernel = 0.8 * vk + 0.2 * ck

# 2) GPCCA macrostates -> terminal states
g = cr.estimators.GPCCA(kernel)
g.compute_macrostates(n_states=6, cluster_key='clusters')
print('macrostates:', list(g.macrostates.cat.categories))

g.predict_terminal_states(n_states=4)
print('terminals:', list(g.terminal_states.cat.categories))

# 3) Per-cell fate probabilities -> obs column
adata.obs['beta_fate'] = np.asarray(g.fate_probabilities['Beta']).ravel()
ov.pl.embedding(adata, basis='X_umap',
                color=['clusters', 'beta_fate'],
                cmap='Reds', frameon='small')

# 4) Branch streamplot
fig, ax = ov.pl.branch_streamplot(
    adata, group_key='clusters',
    pseudotime_key='development_pseudotime',
    trunk_groups=['Ductal', 'Ngn3 low EP', 'Ngn3 high EP', 'Pre-endocrine'],
    branch_center=0.62,
    figsize=(6, 4),
    xlabel='Development pseudotime',
    show=False,
); plt.show()

# Per-fate gene trends (Beta lineage)
adata_beta = adata[adata.obs['beta_fate'] > 0.15].copy()

beta_dyn = ov.single.dynamic_features(
    adata_beta,
    genes=['Pdx1', 'Ins1', 'Ins2', 'Sox9'],
    pseudotime='development_pseudotime',
    layer='Ms',
    distribution='normal', link='identity',
    n_splines=8, store_raw=True,
    raw_obs_keys=['clusters'],
)
ov.pl.dynamic_trends(
    beta_dyn, genes=['Pdx1', 'Ins1', 'Ins2', 'Sox9'],
    compare_features=True,
    add_point=True, point_color_by='clusters',
    line_style_by='features',
    figsize=(6.2, 3.2), linewidth=2.2,
)

# Branch-aware comparison (Alpha vs Beta on the shared endocrine trunk)
branch_clusters = ['Alpha', 'Beta']
split_mask = adata.obs['clusters'].astype(str).isin(['Ngn3 high EP', 'Pre-endocrine'])

cr_branch_dyn = ov.single.dynamic_features(
    adata,
    genes=['Gcg', 'Ins1', 'Ins2', 'Pdx1'],
    pseudotime='development_pseudotime',
    layer='Ms',
    groupby='clusters',
    groups=branch_clusters,
    n_splines=8, store_raw=True,
)
split_time = float(np.nanmedian(
    adata.obs.loc[split_mask, 'development_pseudotime']
))
ov.pl.dynamic_trends(
    cr_branch_dyn, genes=['Gcg', 'Ins2', 'Pdx1'],
    compare_groups=True,
    split_time=split_time, shared_trunk=True,
    add_point=True, point_color_by='group',
    figsize=(4.2, 3), linewidth=2.2, ncols=3,
    title='CellRank branch-aware marker trends',
)

# Multi-module dynamic heatmap of marker programs
modules = {
    'Endocrine progenitor': ['Sox9', 'Neurog3', 'Fev'],
    'Alpha fate':           ['Gcg', 'Arx'],
    'Beta fate':            ['Pax4', 'Ins1', 'Ins2', 'Pdx1'],
    'Delta fate':           ['Sst', 'Hhex'],
}
modules = {k: [g for g in v if g in adata.var_names] for k, v in modules.items()}
modules = {k: v for k, v in modules.items() if v}

ov.pl.dynamic_heatmap(
    adata,
    var_names=modules,
    pseudotime='development_pseudotime',
    layer='Ms',
    cell_annotation='clusters',
    cell_bins=180, smooth_window=17, fitted_window=31,
    figsize=(5, 4),
    standard_scale='var', cmap='RdBu_r',
    use_fitted=True, show_row_names=True, border=False, show=False,
)

Validation

• After compute_macrostates: g.macrostates.cat.categories should include the cell-type clusters that look like canonical trunks AND terminals. If only one macrostate emerges, n_states was too small or the velocity is too noisy.
• After predict_terminal_states: terminal categories should not include obvious trunks (e.g. 'Ductal' in pancreas). If a trunk shows up as a terminal, the kernel mix is wrong (try more velocity weight) or n_states is wrong.
• Fate probabilities in g.fate_probabilities: each row sums to ~1 across the n_terminals columns. If they don't, the GPCCA didn't converge — try n_states+1 for macrostates and re-fit.
• After branch_streamplot: visually confirm the trunk-to-branch transition aligns with the branch_center value. Adjust branch_center to position the split point in the figure.
• After dynamic_features(layer='Ms'): marker genes peak at biologically expected pseudotimes (e.g. Ins1/Ins2 should peak late on Beta lineage). If they peak early, the pseudotime is reversed — check velocity_pseudotime polarity.
• Trunk filtering for split_time: the median pseudotime of trunk clusters should be between the pre-branch and post-branch peaks. Outside that window, shared_trunk=True will look weird.

Resource Map

• See reference.md for compact copy-paste snippets.
• See references/source-grounding.md for which APIs are external (CellRank) vs OmicVerse, and verified signatures for the OmicVerse-side helpers.
• For RNA velocity computation, see the existing single-cell-rna-velocity skill.
• For other trajectory backends, see the per-method skills.

Examples

• "Compute a CellRank fate map on a scvelo-processed pancreas AnnData with 0.8*vk + 0.2*ck and predict 4 terminal states."
• "Pull the Beta fate probability into obs['beta_fate'] and plot it on the UMAP alongside cluster labels."
• "Build a branch-aware gene-trend plot for Alpha vs Beta with a shared endocrine trunk."
• "Make a multi-module dynamic heatmap of progenitor + 3 endocrine fates with use_fitted=True."

References

• Tutorial notebook: t_velo_cellrank.ipynb — pancreas endocrinogenesis end-to-end with scvelo + CellRank.
• CellRank 2 paper: Lange et al. 2022, Nature Methods — "CellRank for directed single-cell fate mapping".
• Live API verified — see references/source-grounding.md.