Polymarket

Polymarket

When to Use

Trigger phrases:

• "polymarket"
• "Help me with polymarket"

Use cases:

• When the task matches this skill's domain expertise

When NOT to use:

• For tasks outside this skill's scope

Query prediction market data from Polymarket's public API (no auth required).

When NOT to Use

• When you cannot afford to lose the capital at risk
• For instruments you do not understand
• When emotional state impairs judgment (revenge trading, FOMO)

Overview

Polymarket provides market analysis capabilities with risk management.

Workflow

# Example: Position sizing (Kelly Criterion)
def kelly_size(win_rate: float, avg_win: float, avg_loss: float) -> float:
    if avg_loss == 0: return 0
    b = avg_win / abs(avg_loss)
    kelly = (win_rate * b - (1 - win_rate)) / b
    return max(0, min(kelly * 0.5, 0.02))  # Half-Kelly, max 2%

1. Research — Analyze market conditions and opportunities
2. Plan — Define entry, exit, and position sizing
3. Execute — Place trades with proper order types
4. Monitor — Track positions and market changes
5. Manage risk — Apply stop-losses and hedging
6. Review — Post-trade analysis and journaling

Risk Management

• Never risk more than 1-2% of portfolio per trade
• Set stop-loss before entering any position
• Diversify across uncorrelated assets
• Size positions based on volatility (ATR)
• Have a maximum daily loss limit

Key Metrics

• Win rate and profit factor
• Sharpe ratio and max drawdown
• Average risk-reward ratio
• Expectancy per trade
• Correlation to benchmark

Discipline Rules

• Follow your trading plan — no impulsive trades
• Cut losses short, let winners run
• Review every trade in your journal
• Never revenge trade after a loss
• Take breaks after consecutive losses

Anti-Rationalization Table

Process

1. Scope — Define research questions, identify data sources, set time boundaries
2. Gather — Collect data from primary sources, APIs, and public records
3. Synthesize — Analyze findings, identify patterns, produce actionable report

Verification

• All steps executed successfully
• Results validated against acceptance criteria
• Error handling tested with edge cases
• Documentation updated with findings