pku-yuangroup Version Compatibility
Reference examples tested with: metafor 4.4+, forestplot 3.1+, ggforestplot 0.1+ (subgroup forests), ggforest from survminer 0.4.9+, MendelianRandomization 0.10+.
Before using code patterns, verify installed versions match. If versions differ:
- R:
packageVersion('<pkg>')then?function_name
If code throws ImportError, AttributeError, or TypeError, introspect the installed package and adapt the example to match the actual API rather than retrying.
Forest and Funnel Plots
"Summarize effects across studies / subgroups" -> Render each effect estimate (HR, OR, RR, β) as a square (size = inverse variance / weight), horizontal bar (95% CI), and label, with an optional summary diamond at the bottom from a meta-analysis pool (fixed-effect or random-effects). The funnel plot diagnoses publication bias by plotting effect size vs precision; asymmetry indicates missing small-study-with-null-result publications (Egger 1997).
- R:
metafor::forest,metafor::funnel,forestplot::forestplot,survminer::ggforest(Cox HR forests),MendelianRandomization::mr_forest
The Single Most Important Modern Insight -- Heterogeneity Is the First Question
A pooled effect estimate is meaningless if the underlying studies are heterogeneous. The Higgins I² statistic (Higgins-Thompson 2002 Stat Med 21:1539) quantifies between-study variance; the conventional 25/50/75% interpretation tiers come from the Cochrane Handbook §10.10.2 (Higgins et al editors), NOT the original Higgins-Thompson paper which cautioned against rigid cutoffs. A meta-analysis with I² > 75% and a pooled effect must explain the heterogeneity (subgroup analysis, meta-regression) — pooling without explanation is statistically defensible but biologically unhelpful.
A forest plot's bottom must report: pooled estimate + 95% CI + I² + τ² (between-study variance) + Q-test p-value. Without these, the plot is a list of effects, not a meta-analysis.
Decision Tree by Analysis Type
| Analysis | Tool | Pooling model | Forest method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-trial subgroup HRs | survminer::ggforest | None (subgroup display) | Coxph object |
| Meta-analysis of binary outcomes | metafor::rma -> forest() | DerSimonian-Laird or REML random-effects | Standard forest |
| Meta-analysis of continuous outcomes | metafor::rma(yi, vi) | REML random-effects | Standard forest |
| Mendelian randomization | MendelianRandomization::mr_forest | Multiple MR methods | MR-specific forest |
| Subgroup forest with interaction p | metafor::rma + addpoly + interaction model | Subgroup REML | Nested forest |
| Network meta-analysis | netmeta::forest.netmeta | Bayesian or frequentist | Network forest |
| Cumulative meta-analysis (over time) | metafor::cumul + forest | – | Cumulative forest |
Fixed-Effect vs Random-Effects Meta-Analysis
| Model | Assumption | When appropriate | Pooled estimate weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-effect (Mantel-Haenszel, IVS) | All studies estimate the same true effect | Single mechanism, homogeneous design | 1 / within-study variance |
| Random-effects (DerSimonian-Laird, REML) | Studies estimate distinct true effects from a common distribution | Heterogeneous designs / populations | 1 / (within + between variance) |
Use random-effects by default. Fixed-effect assumes all studies estimate the same parameter, which is almost never true across multi-center trials with different populations. REML is the modern default (Viechtbauer 2005); DerSimonian-Laird is the older default still commonly seen.
metafor::rma + forest -- The Reference Implementation
Goal: Pool study-level effect estimates with random-effects meta-analysis; render a forest plot with study weights, individual effect+CI, and pooled summary diamond.
Approach: Compute per-study yi (effect) and vi (sampling variance); fit REML random-effects model; pass to forest() with prediction interval if heterogeneity is non-trivial.
library(metafor)
# Input: per-study effect (yi) and variance (vi)
# For OR: yi = log(OR), vi = SE(log(OR))^2
# For HR: yi = log(HR), vi = SE(log(HR))^2
res <- rma(yi = log_or, vi = log_or_se^2,
data = studies, slab = paste(author, year),
method = 'REML')
# I^2 and tau^2 in the summary
summary(res)
# I^2 (residual heterogeneity)
# tau^2 (estimated amount of (residual) heterogeneity)
# Q-test for heterogeneity
forest(res,
atransf = exp, # display OR on natural scale
at = log(c(0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 4)), # ticks at meaningful OR values
refline = 0, # log(1) for OR/HR/RR
xlab = 'Odds Ratio (95% CI)',
header = c('Study', 'OR [95% CI]'),
mlab = bquote(paste('RE Model (Q = ', .(round(res$QE, 2)),
', df = ', .(res$k - 1),
', p = ', .(format.pval(res$QEp, digits = 2)),
'; ', I^2, ' = ', .(round(res$I2, 1)), '%)')),
addpred = TRUE) # prediction interval per Higgins 2009
addpred = TRUE adds a 95% prediction interval — where a new study's effect is expected to fall (Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter 2009 JRSS-A). This is the most honest summary when I² > 30%.
ggforest for Cox Subgroup Forests
library(survminer)
fit <- coxph(Surv(time, status) ~ treatment + age + sex + stage, data = df)
ggforest(fit,
data = df,
main = 'Subgroup HRs',
cpositions = c(0.02, 0.22, 0.4),
fontsize = 0.7,
refLabel = 'Reference',
noDigits = 2)
ggforest produces a publication-ready subgroup forest from a coxph object. For pre-specified subgroup analyses (treatment × subgroup interaction), test interaction explicitly and annotate the p-value.
Small-k Regime -- When Meta-Analysis Asymptotics Break
For k < 5 studies, the REML-based 95% CI from metafor::rma() is severely anti-conservative — it relies on chi-square asymptotics that fail with few studies. Use Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman (HKSJ) adjustment (test = 'knha'):
res_hksj <- rma(yi = log_or, vi = log_or_se^2, data = studies,
method = 'REML', test = 'knha') # HKSJ for k<5
HKSJ uses a t-distribution with k-1 degrees of freedom and adjusts SE via the Q-statistic — well-calibrated even at k=3. For k < 3 a meta-analysis is not advisable; report individual study effects in a forest plot without a pooled summary.
Also: I² is uninterpretable below k = 5 (Borenstein 2017 Res Synth Methods 8:5); the point estimate has wide CI dominated by k itself, not heterogeneity. Do not report I² for k < 5.
Funnel Plot and Egger Test
Goal: Diagnose publication bias by visual asymmetry of effect size vs precision.
Approach: Plot effect (x) vs SE (inverted y); under no bias, points form a symmetric inverted funnel with the pooled estimate at the apex. Asymmetry suggests missing small-N null-result studies. Egger's regression test (Egger 1997 BMJ 315:629) formalizes the asymmetry.
funnel(res,
xlab = 'log(OR)',
refline = res$b)
# Egger's test
regtest(res, model = 'lm', predictor = 'sei')
# significant p indicates asymmetry; suggests publication bias
# Trim-and-fill (Duval-Tweedie 2000) -- adjusts for asymmetry
res_tf <- trimfill(res)
forest(res_tf)
funnel(res_tf)
Contour-enhanced funnel plot (Peters 2008 J Clin Epidemiol 61:991) overlays significance contours (p < 0.10, < 0.05, < 0.01); asymmetry concentrated in "non-significant" regions indicates publication bias more specifically than generic asymmetry.
funnel(res, level = c(90, 95, 99), shade = c('white', 'gray55', 'gray75'),
refline = 0, legend = TRUE)
Per-Method Failure Modes
Pooling under high heterogeneity without explanation
Trigger: Random-effects meta-analysis pooled with I² > 75%; no subgroup or meta-regression.
Mechanism: Pooled estimate is a weighted average across substantively different effects; biologically meaningless.
Symptom: Pooled OR = 1.5 with 95% CI (1.2-1.8) but per-study effects range 0.3-5.0.
Fix: Run subgroup analysis or meta-regression to explain heterogeneity; report I², τ², and prediction interval; do NOT report a single pooled effect as the answer.
Fixed-effect when studies are heterogeneous
Trigger: Default fixed-effect model on multi-population data.
Mechanism: Fixed-effect weights = 1/within-study variance, ignoring between-study variance.
Symptom: CI is misleadingly narrow; reviewer asks "why fixed effect with high I²?"
Fix: Switch to REML random-effects (method = 'REML'); document the choice.
Egger test p-value over-interpreted
Trigger: k < 10 studies; significant Egger p taken as definitive publication bias.
Mechanism: Egger's test is underpowered with few studies; sensitive to single outliers.
Symptom: Conclusion "publication bias" from k=6 trials.
Fix: Egger requires k ≥ 10 (Sterne 2011 BMJ 343:d4002); for fewer studies, visual funnel + contour-enhanced funnel is more reliable.
Trim-and-fill imputed studies presented as data
Trigger: Reporting trim-and-fill adjusted estimate as "the answer."
Mechanism: Trim-and-fill is a sensitivity analysis; imputed studies are hypothetical.
Symptom: Original pooled OR = 2.0; trim-and-fill adjusted to 1.5; report says "adjusted estimate is 1.5."
Fix: Present original AND trim-and-fill side-by-side; trim-and-fill is sensitivity, not primary.
Subgroup forest without interaction test
Trigger: Subgroup HRs plotted; conclusion "treatment works in subgroup X."
Mechanism: Visual differences across subgroups don't establish significant interaction.
Symptom: Subgroup forest shows HR=0.5 in subgroup A, HR=1.0 in subgroup B; no formal test.
Fix: Add treatment × subgroup interaction term to the model; report interaction p; cite Brookes 2001 / Wang 2007 for subgroup analysis caveats.
Forest plot axis on linear scale for ratios
Trigger: OR/HR/RR plotted with linear x-axis.
Mechanism: Ratios are multiplicatively symmetric; linear axis compresses < 1 effects.
Symptom: OR = 0.5 (halving) appears smaller than OR = 2 (doubling) on a linear scale, even though they are biologically equivalent.
Fix: Always log-scale the x-axis for ratios. metafor's atransf = exp + at = log(c(0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 4)) is the canonical pattern.
Weights not visible (point sizes uniform)
Trigger: Default forestplot package without weight encoding.
Mechanism: Reader cannot tell study influence on pool.
Symptom: A 5-patient pilot looks visually equivalent to a 5000-patient trial.
Fix: Use metafor forest() which auto-encodes weight via box size. forestplot package needs boxsize = argument.
Reconciliation: When Methods Disagree
| Pattern | Cause | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed-effect significant; random-effects n.s. | High heterogeneity inflates RE variance | Trust random-effects when I² > 30% |
| Egger n.s. but funnel looks asymmetric | k < 10 -> Egger underpowered | Trust visual; report contour-enhanced funnel |
| Trim-and-fill imputes many studies | Severe asymmetry | Caution; sensitivity, not primary |
| Subgroup forest suggests effect modification; interaction test n.s. | Visual difference does not establish formal interaction | Trust interaction test |
| MR forest shows divergent estimates across methods | Pleiotropy or weak instruments | Run MR-Egger, weighted median, mode-based (sensitivity); cite Bowden 2015 |
Quantitative Thresholds
| Threshold | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| I² substantial heterogeneity | > 50% | Cochrane Handbook §10.10.2 (Higgins et al editors) |
| I² considerable heterogeneity | > 75% | Cochrane Handbook §10.10.2 (Higgins et al editors) |
| Egger test min k | ≥ 10 | Sterne 2011 BMJ |
| Prediction interval (where new study lands) | report when I² > 30% | Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter 2009 |
| Forest x-axis | log scale for ratios | Convention |
Common Errors
| Error / symptom | Cause | Solution |
|---|---|---|
| Pooled estimate with I² = 90% | No heterogeneity exploration | Subgroup / meta-regression |
| Linear x-axis for OR forest | Ratios should be log-symmetric | atransf = exp, at = log(...) |
| Uniform point sizes | Weights not encoded | metafor::forest auto-encodes; forestplot needs boxsize |
| Egger from k=5 | Underpowered | k ≥ 10 for Egger |
| Trim-and-fill as primary | Sensitivity, not primary | Present both; document |
| Subgroup effect without interaction test | Visual ≠ test | Add interaction term |
| MR forest with single method | Pleiotropy risk | Triangulate methods |
References
- Bowden J, Davey Smith G, Burgess S. 2015. Mendelian randomization with invalid instruments: effect estimation and bias detection through Egger regression. Int J Epidemiol 44(2):512-525.
- Brookes ST, Whitley E, Peters TJ, et al. 2001. Subgroup analyses in randomised controlled trials: quantifying the risks of false-positives and false-negatives. Health Technol Assess 5(33):1-56.
- DerSimonian R, Laird N. 1986. Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Control Clin Trials 7(3):177-188.
- Duval S, Tweedie R. 2000. Trim and fill: a simple funnel-plot–based method of testing and adjusting for publication bias in meta-analysis. Biometrics 56:455-463.
- Egger M, Davey Smith G, Schneider M, Minder C. 1997. Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test. BMJ 315(7109):629-634.
- Higgins JPT, Thompson SG. 2002. Quantifying heterogeneity in a meta-analysis. Stat Med 21(11):1539-1558.
- Higgins JPT, Thompson SG, Spiegelhalter DJ. 2009. A re-evaluation of random-effects meta-analysis. JRSS-A 172(1):137-159.
- Peters JL, Sutton AJ, Jones DR, Abrams KR, Rushton L. 2008. Contour-enhanced meta-analysis funnel plots help distinguish publication bias from other causes of asymmetry. J Clin Epidemiol 61(10):991-996.
- Sterne JAC, Sutton AJ, Ioannidis JPA, et al. 2011. Recommendations for examining and interpreting funnel plot asymmetry in meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. BMJ 343:d4002.
- Viechtbauer W. 2010. Conducting meta-analyses in R with the metafor package. J Stat Softw 36(3):1-48.
- Hartung J, Knapp G. 2001. A refined method for the meta-analysis of controlled clinical trials with binary outcome. Stat Med 20(24):3875-3889.
- IntHout J, Ioannidis JPA, Borm GF. 2014. The Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method for random effects meta-analysis is straightforward and considerably outperforms the standard DerSimonian-Laird method. BMC Med Res Methodol 14:25.
- Borenstein M, Higgins JPT, Hedges LV, Rothstein HR. 2017. Basics of meta-analysis: I² is not an absolute measure of heterogeneity. Res Synth Methods 8(1):5-18.
- Higgins JPT, Thomas J, Chandler J, et al (editors). Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions (current version). Section 10.10.2 — interpretation tiers for I².
Related Skills
- clinical-biostatistics/effect-measures - HR / OR / RR / NNT definitions
- clinical-biostatistics/subgroup-analysis - Interaction tests for subgroup HRs
- causal-genomics/mendelian-randomization - MR-specific forest + sensitivity
- clinical-biostatistics/trial-reporting - CONSORT and meta-analysis reporting
- data-visualization/color-palettes - Palette for multi-study or subgroup forests