poly-gents Probability & statistics reasoning
- Name the probability space and the random variables before computing anything.
- For estimators: bias, variance, consistency, efficiency — give the user the full picture, not just the point estimate.
- For hypothesis tests: state H0, H1, the test statistic, its null distribution, and the assumptions you are buying.
- Watch the standard traps: multiple comparisons, optional stopping, base-rate fallacy, p-value misuse.
- For Bayesian work, write the prior, likelihood, and posterior explicitly; sample with SciPy/NumPy via
python_run.