Thinking Toolkit
Apply structured thinking without assuming access to tools, browsing, code,
memory, or a particular LLM provider. Use plain language and produce artifacts
that remain useful outside the conversation.
Core Contract
- Reply in the user's language. Keep standard model names recognizable.
- Preserve user agency. Treat model outputs as decision support, not automatic
truth or authority.
- Separate observed facts, user-provided claims, assumptions, hypotheses,
estimates, preferences, and recommendations.
- Never invent missing evidence. Mark unknowns and propose a way to resolve
only the unknowns that could change the outcome.
- Give a concise selection rationale and the resulting artifact. Do not expose
private hidden reasoning or produce a diary of internal deliberation.
- Match depth to stakes, reversibility, uncertainty, and user intent.
Choose the Mode
Explicit-model mode
Use the requested model when the user names it or an unambiguous alias. Read
the catalog, then read only that model's card. Add a
second model only when the user permits it and the first model leaves a distinct
gap that materially affects the result.
Automatic-selection mode
Use this mode when the user describes a situation without naming a method.
- Identify the job: decide, prioritize, diagnose, reframe, generate, map a
system, resolve conflict, give feedback, or communicate.
- Identify the dominant uncertainty: missing evidence, unclear values,
multiple criteria, causal ambiguity, dynamics, time pressure, or audience.
- Read the catalog and shortlist the models whose
selection cues match.
- Choose one primary model. Add at most two complementary models only when each
has a separate role in a clear sequence.
- State the selected model or sequence and explain the choice in one or two
sentences.
Use the Adaptive Workflow
1. Frame the situation
Capture only what matters:
- the desired outcome and decision owner or audience;
- scope, constraints, time horizon, and deadline;
- available options, evidence, and prior actions;
- stakes, reversibility, uncertainty, and affected people.
Ask up to three focused questions when missing information could materially
change the model, framing, or recommendation. Otherwise proceed and label
reasonable assumptions.
2. Set the working depth
- Use a quick pass for low-stakes, reversible, time-sensitive situations.
- Use a standard pass for ordinary planning, analysis, and communication.
- Use a deep pass for consequential, hard-to-reverse, contested, or systemic
situations. Include sensitivity checks, disconfirming evidence, and an exit or
review condition.
3. Apply the model faithfully
Read the selected card before using it. Follow its procedure in order, adapt the
questions to the user's context, and create the specified output. Do not reduce
a model to a label or generic advice.
4. Test the result
Check for unsupported causal claims, hidden assumptions, omitted stakeholders,
double-counted criteria, false precision, and missing alternatives. Where
relevant, test how the result changes under a plausible alternative assumption.
5. Close with action
End with the decision, insight, draft, experiment, or next step the user asked
for. State unresolved uncertainties and define what evidence or event should
trigger a review.
Fast Selection Map
| User need |
Primary model |
| Examine a choice from distinct perspectives |
Six Thinking Hats |
| Sort work by urgency and importance |
Eisenhower Matrix |
| Trace downstream consequences |
Second-Order Thinking |
| Compare options across weighted criteria |
Decision Matrix |
| Prioritize by benefit and required work |
Impact-Effort Matrix |
| Check a conclusion for inferential leaps |
Ladder of Inference |
| Match decision effort to stakes and comparability |
Hard Choice Model |
| Decide and adapt under time pressure |
OODA Loop |
| Match action to the nature of a situation |
Cynefin Framework |
| Balance product speed and quality using confidence |
Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality |
| Focus effort on the few contributors that drive most of an effect |
Pareto Analysis |
| Plan backward from a defined desirable future |
Backcasting |
| Organize possible causes of a defined effect |
Ishikawa Diagram |
| Trace one incident to a process-level fix |
Five Whys |
| Estimate an unknown quantity without direct data |
Fermi Estimation |
| Challenge a plan from an adversary's perspective |
Red Teaming |
| Reframe a problem at broader or narrower levels |
Abstraction Laddering |
| Resolve opposing positions through shared needs |
Conflict Resolution Diagram |
| Generate combinations across independent dimensions |
Zwicky Box |
| Run an end-to-end creative problem-solving process |
Productive Thinking Model |
| Prevent failure by reasoning backward |
Inversion |
| Decompose a problem or solution space |
Issue Trees |
| Rebuild from fundamental constraints and truths |
First Principles |
| Move from events to patterns, structures, and beliefs |
Iceberg Model |
| Map causal relationships and feedback loops |
Connection Circles |
| Map concepts and explicit propositions |
Concept Map |
| Explain goal-seeking or stabilizing behavior |
Balancing Feedback Loop |
| Explain compounding growth or decline |
Reinforcing Feedback Loop |
| Give specific, behavior-based feedback |
Situation-Behavior-Impact |
| Lead a message with its conclusion |
Minto Pyramid |
Combine Models Deliberately
- Use one model by default.
- Use a sequence only when models perform different phases, such as classify,
analyze, choose, stress-test, or communicate.
- Use no more than three models unless the user explicitly asks for a broader
workshop.
- Do not combine near-duplicates merely to appear thorough.
- Preserve each model's artifact and show how one output becomes the next
model's input.
- Read the combination recipes in the catalog before
constructing a sequence.
Response Shape
Adapt the headings to the request, but include these elements when useful:
- Frame — outcome, scope, constraints, and known evidence.
- Selected model(s) — name and concise selection rationale.
- Inputs and assumptions — clearly labeled.
- Model artifact — matrix, tree, map, sequence, draft, or structured notes.
- Interpretation — insights, trade-offs, uncertainty, and sensitivity.
- Action — decision, next step, owner, experiment, or review trigger.
Model References
Read only the cards needed for the current request.
Decision making
- Six Thinking Hats
- Eisenhower Matrix
- Second-Order Thinking
- Decision Matrix
- Impact-Effort Matrix
- Ladder of Inference
- Hard Choice Model
- OODA Loop
- Cynefin Framework
- Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality
- Pareto Analysis
- Backcasting
Problem solving
- Ishikawa Diagram
- Five Whys
- Abstraction Laddering
- Conflict Resolution Diagram
- Zwicky Box
- Productive Thinking Model
- Inversion
- Red Teaming
- Issue Trees
- First Principles
- Fermi Estimation
Systems thinking
- Iceberg Model
- Connection Circles
- Concept Map
- Balancing Feedback Loop
- Reinforcing Feedback Loop
Communication
- Situation-Behavior-Impact
- Minto Pyramid
Logic Analysis (/logic)
The model cards above help the user choose how to think. The /logic mode does
something different: it audits reasoning that already exists — a claim, an
argument, or a draft — and returns a verdict on its validity.
Route to /logic when the user asks to "check the logic", "find the logical
errors", "is this argument valid", "spot the fallacies", or gives a textbook
logic task — in any language. It has three modes:
- review (default) — diagnose the argument and deliver a verdict; no rewrite.
- fix — repair the reasoning with minimal intervention, preserving voice.
- solve — work a specific task (validate a syllogism, build a truth table,
apply a Mill's method, reconstruct an enthymeme).
Read the logic overview first — it carries the core
contract, the analysis procedure, and the verdict format. Then read only the
reference needed:
- Logic overview — modes, argument reconstruction, laws of
thought, verdict format.
- Fallacy taxonomy — named errors (English + Latin) with
modern examples.
- Formal validity — syllogism rules and
propositional/truth-functional tests.
- Induction — generalization, Mill's methods, analogy,
hypothesis strength.
1---2name: thinking-toolkit3description: A toolkit of 30 decision-making, problem-solving, systems-thinking, and communication models, plus a /logic mode that audits an argument's validity. This skill should be used when a user names a specific model, or describes a situation that calls for one: framing or reframing a problem, comparing options, setting priorities, tracing consequences, finding root causes, estimating an unknown quantity, planning toward a distant goal, mapping or stress-testing a system, resolving a conflict, giving feedback, or structuring a message. It should also be used to check reasoning for logical validity and fallacies. When the method is left open, the skill selects the smallest useful set of models automatically.4---56# Thinking Toolkit78Apply structured thinking without assuming access to tools, browsing, code,9memory, or a particular LLM provider. Use plain language and produce artifacts10that remain useful outside the conversation.1112## Core Contract13141. Reply in the user's language. Keep standard model names recognizable.152. Preserve user agency. Treat model outputs as decision support, not automatic16 truth or authority.173. Separate observed facts, user-provided claims, assumptions, hypotheses,18 estimates, preferences, and recommendations.194. Never invent missing evidence. Mark unknowns and propose a way to resolve20 only the unknowns that could change the outcome.215. Give a concise selection rationale and the resulting artifact. Do not expose22 private hidden reasoning or produce a diary of internal deliberation.236. Match depth to stakes, reversibility, uncertainty, and user intent.2425## Choose the Mode2627### Explicit-model mode2829Use the requested model when the user names it or an unambiguous alias. Read30[the catalog](references/catalog.md), then read only that model's card. Add a31second model only when the user permits it and the first model leaves a distinct32gap that materially affects the result.3334### Automatic-selection mode3536Use this mode when the user describes a situation without naming a method.37381. Identify the job: decide, prioritize, diagnose, reframe, generate, map a39 system, resolve conflict, give feedback, or communicate.402. Identify the dominant uncertainty: missing evidence, unclear values,41 multiple criteria, causal ambiguity, dynamics, time pressure, or audience.423. Read [the catalog](references/catalog.md) and shortlist the models whose43 selection cues match.444. Choose one primary model. Add at most two complementary models only when each45 has a separate role in a clear sequence.465. State the selected model or sequence and explain the choice in one or two47 sentences.4849## Use the Adaptive Workflow5051### 1. Frame the situation5253Capture only what matters:5455- the desired outcome and decision owner or audience;56- scope, constraints, time horizon, and deadline;57- available options, evidence, and prior actions;58- stakes, reversibility, uncertainty, and affected people.5960Ask up to three focused questions when missing information could materially61change the model, framing, or recommendation. Otherwise proceed and label62reasonable assumptions.6364### 2. Set the working depth6566- Use a quick pass for low-stakes, reversible, time-sensitive situations.67- Use a standard pass for ordinary planning, analysis, and communication.68- Use a deep pass for consequential, hard-to-reverse, contested, or systemic69 situations. Include sensitivity checks, disconfirming evidence, and an exit or70 review condition.7172### 3. Apply the model faithfully7374Read the selected card before using it. Follow its procedure in order, adapt the75questions to the user's context, and create the specified output. Do not reduce76a model to a label or generic advice.7778### 4. Test the result7980Check for unsupported causal claims, hidden assumptions, omitted stakeholders,81double-counted criteria, false precision, and missing alternatives. Where82relevant, test how the result changes under a plausible alternative assumption.8384### 5. Close with action8586End with the decision, insight, draft, experiment, or next step the user asked87for. State unresolved uncertainties and define what evidence or event should88trigger a review.8990## Fast Selection Map9192| User need | Primary model |93|---|---|94| Examine a choice from distinct perspectives | Six Thinking Hats |95| Sort work by urgency and importance | Eisenhower Matrix |96| Trace downstream consequences | Second-Order Thinking |97| Compare options across weighted criteria | Decision Matrix |98| Prioritize by benefit and required work | Impact-Effort Matrix |99| Check a conclusion for inferential leaps | Ladder of Inference |100| Match decision effort to stakes and comparability | Hard Choice Model |101| Decide and adapt under time pressure | OODA Loop |102| Match action to the nature of a situation | Cynefin Framework |103| Balance product speed and quality using confidence | Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality |104| Focus effort on the few contributors that drive most of an effect | Pareto Analysis |105| Plan backward from a defined desirable future | Backcasting |106| Organize possible causes of a defined effect | Ishikawa Diagram |107| Trace one incident to a process-level fix | Five Whys |108| Estimate an unknown quantity without direct data | Fermi Estimation |109| Challenge a plan from an adversary's perspective | Red Teaming |110| Reframe a problem at broader or narrower levels | Abstraction Laddering |111| Resolve opposing positions through shared needs | Conflict Resolution Diagram |112| Generate combinations across independent dimensions | Zwicky Box |113| Run an end-to-end creative problem-solving process | Productive Thinking Model |114| Prevent failure by reasoning backward | Inversion |115| Decompose a problem or solution space | Issue Trees |116| Rebuild from fundamental constraints and truths | First Principles |117| Move from events to patterns, structures, and beliefs | Iceberg Model |118| Map causal relationships and feedback loops | Connection Circles |119| Map concepts and explicit propositions | Concept Map |120| Explain goal-seeking or stabilizing behavior | Balancing Feedback Loop |121| Explain compounding growth or decline | Reinforcing Feedback Loop |122| Give specific, behavior-based feedback | Situation-Behavior-Impact |123| Lead a message with its conclusion | Minto Pyramid |124125## Combine Models Deliberately126127- Use one model by default.128- Use a sequence only when models perform different phases, such as classify,129 analyze, choose, stress-test, or communicate.130- Use no more than three models unless the user explicitly asks for a broader131 workshop.132- Do not combine near-duplicates merely to appear thorough.133- Preserve each model's artifact and show how one output becomes the next134 model's input.135- Read the combination recipes in [the catalog](references/catalog.md) before136 constructing a sequence.137138## Response Shape139140Adapt the headings to the request, but include these elements when useful:1411421. **Frame** — outcome, scope, constraints, and known evidence.1432. **Selected model(s)** — name and concise selection rationale.1443. **Inputs and assumptions** — clearly labeled.1454. **Model artifact** — matrix, tree, map, sequence, draft, or structured notes.1465. **Interpretation** — insights, trade-offs, uncertainty, and sensitivity.1476. **Action** — decision, next step, owner, experiment, or review trigger.148149## Model References150151Read only the cards needed for the current request.152153### Decision making154155- [Six Thinking Hats](references/six-thinking-hats.md)156- [Eisenhower Matrix](references/eisenhower-matrix.md)157- [Second-Order Thinking](references/second-order-thinking.md)158- [Decision Matrix](references/decision-matrix.md)159- [Impact-Effort Matrix](references/impact-effort-matrix.md)160- [Ladder of Inference](references/ladder-of-inference.md)161- [Hard Choice Model](references/hard-choice-model.md)162- [OODA Loop](references/ooda-loop.md)163- [Cynefin Framework](references/cynefin-framework.md)164- [Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality](references/confidence-speed-quality.md)165- [Pareto Analysis](references/pareto-analysis.md)166- [Backcasting](references/backcasting.md)167168### Problem solving169170- [Ishikawa Diagram](references/ishikawa-diagram.md)171- [Five Whys](references/five-whys.md)172- [Abstraction Laddering](references/abstraction-laddering.md)173- [Conflict Resolution Diagram](references/conflict-resolution-diagram.md)174- [Zwicky Box](references/zwicky-box.md)175- [Productive Thinking Model](references/productive-thinking-model.md)176- [Inversion](references/inversion.md)177- [Red Teaming](references/red-teaming.md)178- [Issue Trees](references/issue-trees.md)179- [First Principles](references/first-principles.md)180- [Fermi Estimation](references/fermi-estimation.md)181182### Systems thinking183184- [Iceberg Model](references/iceberg-model.md)185- [Connection Circles](references/connection-circles.md)186- [Concept Map](references/concept-map.md)187- [Balancing Feedback Loop](references/balancing-feedback-loop.md)188- [Reinforcing Feedback Loop](references/reinforcing-feedback-loop.md)189190### Communication191192- [Situation-Behavior-Impact](references/situation-behavior-impact.md)193- [Minto Pyramid](references/minto-pyramid.md)194195## Logic Analysis (`/logic`)196197The model cards above help the user *choose how to think*. The `/logic` mode does198something different: it *audits reasoning that already exists* — a claim, an199argument, or a draft — and returns a verdict on its validity.200201Route to `/logic` when the user asks to "check the logic", "find the logical202errors", "is this argument valid", "spot the fallacies", or gives a textbook203logic task — in any language. It has three modes:204205- **review** (default) — diagnose the argument and deliver a verdict; no rewrite.206- **fix** — repair the reasoning with minimal intervention, preserving voice.207- **solve** — work a specific task (validate a syllogism, build a truth table,208 apply a Mill's method, reconstruct an enthymeme).209210Read [the logic overview](logic/overview.md) first — it carries the core211contract, the analysis procedure, and the verdict format. Then read only the212reference needed:213214- [Logic overview](logic/overview.md) — modes, argument reconstruction, laws of215 thought, verdict format.216- [Fallacy taxonomy](logic/fallacies.md) — named errors (English + Latin) with217 modern examples.218- [Formal validity](logic/formal-validity.md) — syllogism rules and219 propositional/truth-functional tests.220- [Induction](logic/induction.md) — generalization, Mill's methods, analogy,221 hypothesis strength.