Howard Marks Cycles
Use this skill to apply Howard Marks-style cycle and risk judgment: identify where markets are in the cycle, compare price to value and risk premium, and decide whether to be defensive or aggressive.
When To Use
Use this skill when the user asks for:
- Market cycle diagnosis
- Credit spread and risk premium review
- Second-level thinking on a crowded view
- Defensive or aggressive portfolio posture
- Whether risk is being rewarded or ignored
Trigger phrases include Howard Marks, cycle, second-level thinking, risk premium, credit cycle, defensive, aggressive, and market psychology.
Do Not Use When
- The user needs a precise technical entry only.
- There is no market, valuation, credit, or sentiment context.
- The user asks for a prediction without uncertainty ranges.
- The setup requires leverage or forced timing.
Inputs Needed
- Asset class or market
- Valuation, yield, spread, or risk premium data
- Credit conditions, liquidity, default risk, and refinancing risk if relevant
- Sentiment, positioning, and consensus view
- Portfolio exposure and drawdown tolerance if posture is requested
Process
- Identify the cycle: early, mid, late, stressed, panic, recovery.
- Separate first-level view from second-level view.
- Compare price, value, and risk premium.
- Assess market psychology: fear, greed, complacency, forced selling.
- Decide posture: defensive, neutral, opportunistic, or aggressive.
- Size by margin for error, not confidence alone.
Output Format
# Marks Cycle View: [Market]
## Verdict
Defensive / Neutral / Opportunistic / Aggressive / Stand Down
## Cycle Position
## First-Level vs Second-Level View
## Risk Premium
## Market Psychology
## Portfolio Posture
## What Would Change The View
## Missing Data
Guardrails
- Do not forecast with false precision.
- Do not treat high returns as low risk.
- Do not become aggressive when risk is underpriced.
- Do not become paralyzed during panic if compensation is attractive.
- Always ask what is already in the price.
Questflow Use
In Questflow, this skill is best used as a portfolio posture and cycle-risk module across Funds, asset classes, and market regimes.
1---2name: marks-cycles3description: Use when evaluating markets through Howard Marks-style second-level thinking, credit cycles, risk premiums, market psychology, and defensive versus aggressive posture.4---56# Howard Marks Cycles78Use this skill to apply Howard Marks-style cycle and risk judgment: identify where markets are in the cycle, compare price to value and risk premium, and decide whether to be defensive or aggressive.910## When To Use1112Use this skill when the user asks for:1314- Market cycle diagnosis15- Credit spread and risk premium review16- Second-level thinking on a crowded view17- Defensive or aggressive portfolio posture18- Whether risk is being rewarded or ignored1920Trigger phrases include `Howard Marks`, `cycle`, `second-level thinking`, `risk premium`, `credit cycle`, `defensive`, `aggressive`, and `market psychology`.2122## Do Not Use When2324- The user needs a precise technical entry only.25- There is no market, valuation, credit, or sentiment context.26- The user asks for a prediction without uncertainty ranges.27- The setup requires leverage or forced timing.2829## Inputs Needed3031- Asset class or market32- Valuation, yield, spread, or risk premium data33- Credit conditions, liquidity, default risk, and refinancing risk if relevant34- Sentiment, positioning, and consensus view35- Portfolio exposure and drawdown tolerance if posture is requested3637## Process38391. Identify the cycle: early, mid, late, stressed, panic, recovery.402. Separate first-level view from second-level view.413. Compare price, value, and risk premium.424. Assess market psychology: fear, greed, complacency, forced selling.435. Decide posture: defensive, neutral, opportunistic, or aggressive.446. Size by margin for error, not confidence alone.4546## Output Format4748```md49# Marks Cycle View: [Market]5051## Verdict52Defensive / Neutral / Opportunistic / Aggressive / Stand Down5354## Cycle Position5556## First-Level vs Second-Level View5758## Risk Premium5960## Market Psychology6162## Portfolio Posture6364## What Would Change The View6566## Missing Data67```6869## Guardrails7071- Do not forecast with false precision.72- Do not treat high returns as low risk.73- Do not become aggressive when risk is underpriced.74- Do not become paralyzed during panic if compensation is attractive.75- Always ask what is already in the price.7677## Questflow Use7879In Questflow, this skill is best used as a portfolio posture and cycle-risk module across Funds, asset classes, and market regimes.
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