refoundai High Stakes Decision Making
Navigate irreversible choices and extreme uncertainty with speed and structural clarity.
Help the user with high stakes decision making using insights from 30 guests and posts across Lenny's Podcast and Newsletter.
How to Help
- Categorize the stakes - Help the user determine if a decision is a one-way or two-way door to apply the appropriate level of rigor.
- Frame the core problem - Facilitate the identification of the 'Eigenquestion' or the single decisive reason that drives the choice.
- Mitigate emotional bias - Use techniques like pre-mortems and neutral third-party perspectives to identify where fear or sunk costs are distorting reality.
- Drive to a conclusion - Transition from consensus-seeking to clear ownership, ensuring everyone is heard before a final call is made with 70 percent information.
Core Principles
Identify Leading Indicators
Annie Duke: "There is no such thing as a long feedback loop. And the way you choose to shorten the feedback loop is to say, what are the things that are correlated with the outcome that I eventually desire?"
Break down long-term goals into measurable intermediate signals to create shorter feedback loops for better decision-making.
Run Toward Necessary Pain
Ben Horowitz: "The biggest mistake that you make, the worst thing that you do as a leader, there's things in your control and there's things out of your control and hesitation, that's generally the most destructive. And I go through all the ways that it's destructive, but it's extremely bad. And the thing that causes you to hesitate is both decisions are horrible."
Trust your perception and act decisively when faced with two equally painful alternatives rather than avoiding the choice.
Build for Technological Trajectories
Kevin Weil: "Our general mindset is in two months, there's going to be a better model and it's going to blow away whatever the current set of limitations are. And we say this to developers too. If you're building and the product that you're building is kind of right on the edge of the capabilities of the models, keep going because you're doing something right. Give it another couple months and the models are going to be great, and suddenly the product that you have that just barely worked is really going to sing."
Design products and roadmaps based on where model capabilities will be in months rather than optimizing for current technical limitations.
Prioritize Existing Integrity
Laura Modi: "We are going to run out of product for the babies that are on Bobbie today. We have about six days before we get to a place where we won't be able to serve those who've already made a commitment to Bobbie. She's like, 'So we need to turn off our site and stop growing the business.'"
True customer-centricity requires prioritizing fulfillment for existing users over new acquisition during periods of severe supply or resource shortages.
Neutralize Fear-Based Predictions
Matt Mochary: "It's not because I'm magician or a genius, it's because when someone's in fear, they're gripped. They can't see reality, their brain is making very exaggerated predictions. Whereas when someone is not in fear, and I'm not because it's not my situation, I am not gripped and therefore, my brain isn't making exaggerated predictions. And so, we make this bet once I win, then all of a sudden the CEO realizes, oh my God, there's something to this, fear gives bad advice."
Use neutral third parties to identify when fear is causing you to make exaggerated negative predictions about a difficult choice.
Maintain Forward Momentum
Claire Hughes Johnson: "If you're not sure who the decision maker is, one, it's probably you. And I'd rather you act that way than not because you're going to like slow the whole company down. Follow a process and get it done, and don't forget to actually make a decision."
Take the initiative to drive a decision when authority is ambiguous to prevent organizational paralysis and maintain career velocity.
Decide with 70 Percent Information
From "Five habits of highly annoying product managers": "Try this next time you’re stuck on a decision: Ask your team if they’d rather keep hashing it out or for you to just make a call. I bet you they’d rather just move on."
Aim for approximately 70 percent of the information needed before making a call to maintain team momentum rather than seeking perfect consensus.
Templates & Frameworks
- Eigenquestions: The Art of Framing Problems (My favorite product management templates) - A framework for identifying the single most important question that, when answered, will answer all subsequent questions
- S.P.A.D.E. Decision-Making Framework (My favorite decision-making frameworks) - A structured decision-making framework that replaces consensus with accountability by assigning a single responsible decision-maker. SPADE stands for Setting, P
- RAPID Decision-Making Framework (Hari Srinivasan) - A model to clarify roles in complex decisions to ensure speed and accountability.
- Kombucha Scale (My favorite decision-making frameworks) - A quick mental model from Square for determining whether a decision warrants a formal framework, based on two variables: importance and urgency.
- Type-1 and Type-2 Decisions (How to get into product management) - Jeff Bezos's framework for categorizing decisions as irreversible (Type-1) or reversible (Type-2) to determine how much deliberation is warranted
- Pre-mortem with Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants (Shreyas Doshi) - A structured pre-mortem meeting framework where you imagine the project has failed, then categorize risks into three types: Tigers (real threats that will kill
- Single Decisive Reason (SDR) (Rahul Vohra) - A decision-making tool learned from Reid Hoffman where you must identify one reason that alone justifies a decision, preventing collections of weak reasons from
- Scenario Planning for Crisis (Three Scenarios) (Leading your company through a pandemic - Issue 20) - Framework for modeling business outcomes under three severity levels during an economic crisis
- Framework Selection Guide (Structured to Least Structured) (My favorite decision-making frameworks) - Lenny's ranking of decision-making frameworks from most structured to least structured, with guidance on when to use each.
See references/artifacts.md for the full list with details.
Questions to Help Users
- "Is this a one-way door or a two-way door decision in terms of cost to reverse?"
- "What is the single decisive reason for this proposal that stands alone without a laundry list of arguments?"
- "What are the leading indicators we will monitor to validate this path before we reach the final outcome?"
- "Who are the key detractors and have you met with them individually to understand their concerns?"
- "What are the pre-defined kill criteria that would trigger us to stop this project objectively?"
- "If you had to decide with only 70 percent of the data you want, what direction would you take right now?"
Common Mistakes to Flag
- Seeking Consensus over Alignment - Aiming for total agreement often leads to watered-down decisions or organizational paralysis.
- Misapplying the Two-Way Door - Using reversibility as an excuse to bypass deep thinking on strategic features that consume significant resources.
- Avoiding the Painful Choice - Leaders often delay decisions because all available options are undesirable, which only increases the eventual cost.
- Ignoring Sunk Cost Bias - Persisting in a failing project because of the emotional identity attached to it rather than its future utility.
Deep Dive
For all 24 sourced insights from 30 guests, see references/guest-insights.md
Related Skills
- Roadmap Prioritization
- Goal Setting Okrs
- Planning Cadence
- Evaluating Trade Offs