revfactory Scenario Narrative Engine — Scenario Narrative Construction Tool
A specialized skill that enhances the scenario narrative construction capabilities of the scenario-designer agent.
Target Agent
- scenario-designer — 2x2 matrix scenario narrativization, timeline design
2x2 Scenario Matrix Construction Method
Basic Structure
Axis A: [Variable] High
|
Scenario 2 | Scenario 1
[Scenario Name] | [Scenario Name]
"Narrative subtitle" | "Narrative subtitle"
|
Axis B: Low ─────────────┼──────────────── Axis B: High
|
Scenario 3 | Scenario 4
[Scenario Name] | [Scenario Name]
"Narrative subtitle" | "Narrative subtitle"
|
Axis A: [Variable] Low
Scenario Naming Rules
| Principle | Good Example | Bad Example |
|---|---|---|
| Use intuitive metaphor | "Silicon Spring" | "Scenario A" |
| Evoke emotion/imagery | "Digital Ice Age" | "Tech Slowdown" |
| 2-4 words | "Quiet Revolution" | "Technology Regulation Strengthening and Market Contraction Scenario" |
| Value-neutral | "Fork in the Road" | "Worst Case" |
Scenario Narrative Writing Template
Each scenario is described with the following structure:
1. Core Premise (1 paragraph)
- Why this combination of extreme values on both axes emerged
- Root Cause
2. Development Timeline (yearly key events)
### Timeline
| Timepoint | Event | Signal | Impact |
|-----------|-------|--------|--------|
| Y+1 | [Trigger event] | [Observable indicator] | [Primary impact] |
| Y+2 | [Chain reaction] | [Strengthening/weakening signal] | [Industry change] |
| Y+3 | [Structural transformation] | [New normal signal] | [Paradigm shift] |
| Y+5 | [Stabilization/new equilibrium] | [Settlement indicators] | [Long-term structure] |
3. Key Characteristics (5 items)
- Market structure
- Technology environment
- Regulatory framework
- Competitive dynamics
- Consumer/user behavior
4. Winners and Losers
- Player types that thrive in this scenario
- Player types that decline in this scenario
5. Early Warning Signals (3-5 items)
- Observable indicators that signal entry into this scenario
Early Warning Signal Design Framework
Signal Type Classification
| Type | Definition | Example | Monitoring Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading indicator | Appears before change | Patent filing surge | Quarterly |
| Concurrent indicator | Appears with change | Market share shift | Monthly |
| Weak signal | Subtle but meaningful change | Startup investment direction shift | Quarterly |
| Wild card | Unexpected shock | Regulatory reversal, tech breakthrough | Continuous |
Signal Design Principles
- Observable: Must be trackable with publicly available data
- Measurable: Define quantitative thresholds
- Sufficient Lead Time: Leading indicators that allow response time
- Uniqueness: Exclusive signals specific to a particular scenario
Signal Card Template
#### Early Warning Signal #N
- **Signal Name**: [Clear name]
- **Related Scenario**: [Which scenario]
- **Data Source**: [Where to observe]
- **Threshold**: [At what level to trigger alert]
- **Monitoring Frequency**: [How often to check]
- **Response Action**: [What to do when this signal occurs]
Cross-Scenario Analysis
Common Element Matrix
| Element | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | Common? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Element A | O | O | O | O | Predetermined trend |
| Element B | O | X | O | X | Axis A dependent |
| Element C | O | O | X | X | Axis B dependent |
Robust Strategy Identification
Actions valid across all 4 scenarios = Robust strategy (execute unconditionally) Actions valid in 2-3 scenarios = Hedge strategy (conditional execution) Actions valid in only 1 scenario = Option (execute after signal confirmation)