LTV loyalty churn alert & win-back
You connect historical purchase frequency (and recency) → silence / churn risk → automated activation workflows (journeys, messages, and ops hooks).
When NOT to use (should-not-trigger)
- Single purchase confirmation only ("thanks for your order") with no retention ask.
- Pure transactional templates with no lapse or segment context.
If the user later adds "many haven't bought again," switch to full workflow mode.
Gather context
- Recency: last purchase date distribution; spike in 90d+ silent (or merchant’s window).
- Frequency: orders per customer in last 12 months; baseline vs cohort.
- Monetary: AOV and cumulative spend — VIP threshold (define or ask).
- Tier / points: tier rules, points expiry date and notice rules.
- Channel: email, SMS, app push, CS outreach — constraints and consent.
For RFM-style cutoffs and workflow templates, read references/loyalty_playbook.md when needed.
Core workflow (always)
- Risk framing — Classify silence (e.g. at-risk: no order in 90d; high-risk: 120d+; formerly frequent now cold).
- Segment branch
- VIP / high-value → Dedicated CS care (named contact, proactive outreach, perk without trashing margin — early access, bundle concierge, not only generic % off).
- Standard buyer → Time-bound discount or incentive bait (deadline, code, stack rules clear).
- Activation workflow — Trigger, wait steps, exit rules, measure (reactivation rate, incremental revenue).
Mandatory outputs (full engagement)
Every full churn / loyalty answer must include:
- Risk summary — Who is silent, how many (or %), vs historical norm.
- Two branches — At least one block labeled VIP / high-value (CS care) and one Standard (discount bait), even if one segment is empty ("if no VIPs, still document threshold").
- Win-back plan table — concrete steps + channel + timing.
- Points expiry branch (if applicable) — Pre-expiry nudge sequence before burn.
Win-back plan table (required shape)
| Segment |
Silence signal |
Action |
Channel |
Timing |
| VIP |
e.g. 90d + LTV top decile |
Dedicated CS check-in + perk |
Email + optional call |
Day 0, Day 7 |
| Standard |
e.g. 90d no order |
Limited-time offer |
Email/SMS |
Day 0, Day 3, Day 10 |
| Points at risk |
Expiry in 14d |
Redeem nudge + basket builder |
Email |
T-14, T-7, T-2 |
Adjust rows to data; keep VIP vs Standard distinction explicit.
VIP branch (content requirements)
- Named or role-based concierge line.
- Non-price-first value where possible (early access, restock hold, bundle suggestion).
- Escalation path if no response.
Standard branch (content requirements)
- Time-bound offer (end date).
- Clear code or auto-apply and exclusions.
- Single primary CTA.
Success metrics (suggest in every full run)
- Reactivation rate (ordered within 30d of campaign).
- Incremental revenue vs holdout.
- Unsubscribe / complaint rate (guardrail).
Split with other skills
- Affiliate reconciliation → not this skill.
- Abandoned checkout (session drop) → checkout skill; this skill is post-purchase lapse.
1---2name: ltv-loyalty-winback3description: LTV loyalty churn alert & win-back4---56# LTV loyalty churn alert & win-back78You connect **historical purchase frequency (and recency)** → **silence / churn risk** → **automated activation workflows** (journeys, messages, and ops hooks).910## When NOT to use (should-not-trigger)1112- **Single purchase confirmation** only ("thanks for your order") with no retention ask.13- Pure transactional templates with no lapse or segment context.1415If the user later adds "many haven't bought again," switch to full workflow mode.1617## Gather context18191. **Recency**: last purchase date distribution; spike in 90d+ silent (or merchant’s window).202. **Frequency**: orders per customer in last 12 months; baseline vs cohort.213. **Monetary**: AOV and cumulative spend — **VIP threshold** (define or ask).224. **Tier / points**: tier rules, points expiry date and notice rules.235. **Channel**: email, SMS, app push, CS outreach — constraints and consent.2425For RFM-style cutoffs and workflow templates, read `references/loyalty_playbook.md` when needed.2627## Core workflow (always)28291. **Risk framing** — Classify silence (e.g. at-risk: no order in 90d; high-risk: 120d+; formerly frequent now cold).302. **Segment branch**31 - **VIP / high-value** → **Dedicated CS care** (named contact, proactive outreach, perk without trashing margin — early access, bundle concierge, not only generic % off).32 - **Standard buyer** → **Time-bound discount or incentive bait** (deadline, code, stack rules clear).333. **Activation workflow** — Trigger, wait steps, exit rules, measure (reactivation rate, incremental revenue).3435## Mandatory outputs (full engagement)3637Every **full** churn / loyalty answer must include:38391. **Risk summary** — Who is silent, how many (or %), vs historical norm.402. **Two branches** — At least one block labeled **VIP / high-value** (CS care) and one **Standard** (discount bait), even if one segment is empty ("if no VIPs, still document threshold").413. **Win-back plan table** — concrete steps + channel + timing.424. **Points expiry branch (if applicable)** — Pre-expiry nudge sequence before burn.4344## Win-back plan table (required shape)4546| Segment | Silence signal | Action | Channel | Timing |47|---------|----------------|--------|---------|--------|48| VIP | e.g. 90d + LTV top decile | Dedicated CS check-in + perk | Email + optional call | Day 0, Day 7 |49| Standard | e.g. 90d no order | Limited-time offer | Email/SMS | Day 0, Day 3, Day 10 |50| Points at risk | Expiry in 14d | Redeem nudge + basket builder | Email | T-14, T-7, T-2 |5152Adjust rows to data; keep **VIP vs Standard** distinction explicit.5354## VIP branch (content requirements)5556- Named or role-based **concierge** line.57- **Non-price-first** value where possible (early access, restock hold, bundle suggestion).58- **Escalation path** if no response.5960## Standard branch (content requirements)6162- **Time-bound** offer (end date).63- Clear **code or auto-apply** and exclusions.64- Single primary CTA.6566## Success metrics (suggest in every full run)6768- Reactivation rate (ordered within 30d of campaign).69- Incremental revenue vs holdout.70- Unsubscribe / complaint rate (guardrail).7172## Split with other skills7374- **Affiliate reconciliation** → not this skill.75- **Abandoned checkout** (session drop) → checkout skill; this skill is **post-purchase lapse**.
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