romiluz13 Pipeline Analyst
DATA RULE: Forecast categories assigned by criteria — not gut feel. Read all files before scoring.
DATE RULE: Check currentDate. Output overwrites memory/pipeline-forecast.md each run.
STEP 0 — Confirm Scope
Ask if not provided:
- Full pipeline review or specific stage?
- What's the quota target for this period? (needed for coverage calculation)
- What's the period? (this month / this quarter / this half)
STEP 1 — Load All Active Accounts
Read all files:
- All
accounts/*/account-brief.mdfiles → stage, MEDDPICC score, last interaction, champion, EB - Most recent discovery notes per account → to validate scores and surface red flags
Inventory every active account:
| Account | Stage | MEDDPICC Score | Champion | EB Named | Last Touch | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [name] | /40 | ✅/⬜ | ✅/⬜ | [date] | [action] |
STEP 2 — Assign Forecast Categories
Assign categories based ONLY on evidence from files. Never on optimism.
| Category | Criteria (ALL must be true) |
|---|---|
| Commit (>90%) | Score 35+/40 AND next step confirmed with date AND paper/procurement started |
| Best Case (>60%) | Score 28+/40 AND champion actively engaged AND EB identified by name |
| Upside (<60%) | Score 20+/40 AND discovery complete AND Why Anything confirmed |
| Not Forecast | Score < 20/40 OR Why Anything still unknown |
Forecast Summary:
| Category | Accounts | Total ACV | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commit | $__ | $__ (x1.0) | |
| Best Case | $__ | $__ (x0.6) | |
| Upside | $__ | $__ (x0.3) | |
| Total Forecast | $__ | $__ |
STEP 3 — Pipeline Velocity
Formula: (Qualified Opps x Average Deal Size x Win Rate) / Average Sales Cycle Length
Fill in from account-briefs and seller context:
- Qualified opportunities (score 20+/40): ___
- Average deal size: $___
- Estimated win rate: ___%
- Average sales cycle length: ___ days
Pipeline Velocity: $___ / day
Use to project: "At current velocity, you're on track for $[X] by [date]."
STEP 4 — Coverage Analysis
Coverage ratio = Total pipeline value / Quota target
| Ratio | Status | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 3x+ | Healthy | Enough to hit quota with normal attrition |
| 2-3x | Adequate | Manageable — watch for deals going dark |
| 1-2x | Thin | Need to add pipeline immediately |
| < 1x | Critical | Cannot hit quota from current pipeline |
Your coverage: [X]x — [Status]
STEP 5 — Surface At-Risk Deals
Flag any deal where ANY of the following is true:
- Last meaningful touch > 14 days ago
- MEDDPICC score stuck (same score 2+ reviews)
- Single-threaded (no champion or champion unresponsive)
- No confirmed next step with date
- Red flag triggered (from call-debrief STEP 3.5)
At-Risk Deals:
| Account | Risk Signal | Last Touch | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| [name] | [specific signal] | [date] | [specific recovery action] |
STEP 6 — Top 3 Focus Deals
Identify the 3 deals most worth investing time in THIS week:
- Highest score in Commit/Best Case with an actionable next step
- At-risk deals that can be recovered with 1 focused action
- Deals close to a scoring threshold that could upgrade category
| Priority | Account | Category | Why Focus Now | This Week's Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ||||
| 2 | ||||
| 3 |
STEP 7 — Save Pipeline Forecast
Overwrite: memory/pipeline-forecast.md (same pattern as territory-signals.md)
pipeline-forecast.md structure:
# Pipeline Forecast — {Date}
## Forecast Summary
[Table from Step 2]
## Coverage Analysis
Coverage ratio: [X]x — [Status]
Quota: $___
Pipeline: $___
## Pipeline Velocity
$___ / day — projected $[X] by [date]
## At-Risk Deals
[Table from Step 5]
## Top 3 Focus Deals This Week
[Table from Step 6]
## Full Pipeline Inventory
[Table from Step 1]
Quality Gates
- All active account-briefs read (not just the ones you remember)
- MEDDPICC scores sourced from actual call notes or account-briefs — never estimated
- Forecast categories assigned by criteria (not gut feel)
- Coverage ratio calculated with actual quota target
- At-risk deals have specific recovery actions (not "follow up")
- Pipeline velocity calculated
- Saved to memory/pipeline-forecast.md with today's date