Shaper:market

market — Full-Spectrum Market Research

Runs up to three independent research modules — problem-space, competitive landscape, and market sizing — each with a user-agency choice at entry. Primary research is collected first, then the user selects which modules to run.

Before running this command, read ../../references/shared-protocols.md and ../../references/handbook-templates.md.

When to Run

• After shaper:canvas to validate the Problem, Solution, and Revenue Streams blocks.
• User explicitly says shaper:market or asks about competitors, market size, or problem validation.

Workflow

Step 1: Read the Canvas

Read .shaper/business_state.md. If no canvas exists, ask: "I need to know what we are building first. Should we run /shaper:kickoff or /shaper:canvas?"

Check the Session Log. If shaper:market has already run, apply the Cascade Awareness protocol from shared-protocols.md: note what changed and warn if downstream artifacts may be stale.

Step 2: Ask for Primary Research

Before doing any secondary research, ask the user if they have done primary research.

Use the AskUserQuestion tool to ask: "Have you done any primary research — user interviews, surveys, usability tests, sales calls, or anything where you talked directly to potential customers?" with these single-select options:

• Yes, I have materials — I can share transcripts, notes, survey results, or recordings.
• Yes, but nothing written down — I did some informal conversations and can summarize.
• No — We'll rely on secondary research for now.

If Yes, I have materials: Ask the user to share them (paste text, provide file paths, or describe the key findings). Read and incorporate the primary data.

If Yes, but nothing written down: Ask: "Give me the 3 most important things you learned from those conversations." Capture their summary.

If No: Proceed. Note in the state that no primary research was done — this becomes a flag for shaper:validate.

Primary research always takes precedence over secondary research. When real user quotes, interview data, or survey results conflict with assumptions from web research, the primary data wins.

Step 3: Select Research Modules

Use AskUserQuestion (multi-select) to ask: "What market research do you want to run?" with these options:

• Problem space — Find what real people say about this problem online: forums, Reddit, reviews, complaints.
• Competitive landscape — Identify who already solves this, how they're priced, and where they're weak.
• Market sizing — Estimate TAM/SAM/SOM for the opportunity.

Run each selected module in sequence (A → B → C). Unselected modules are skipped; record them as none in state.

Module A: Problem-Space Research

Runs only if "Problem space" was selected in Step 3.

Use AskUserQuestion (single-select) to ask: "How do you want to handle problem-space research?" with options:

• I have data on this — I'll share what I've found: reports, posts, screenshots, or summaries.
• Research it for me — Search for what people say about this problem online. (Recommended if no primary research)
• Skip — I'm confident in the problem hypothesis.

If "I have data on this": Ask the user to paste or describe their findings. Structure the input into the top 3 pain points. Record with confidence: user-provided. Write output to handbook/business/primary-research.md under ## Secondary Research — Problem Space using the template in Section 3 of handbook-templates.md.

If "Research it for me": Tell the user: "I am deploying a Market Researcher to find what real people say about [Problem]. This will take a moment."

Spawn a Market Researcher subagent with this problem-focused prompt:

"You are a Market Researcher. Search for discussions, complaints, reviews, and forum posts where people express frustration with [Problem] in the context of [Target Audience]. Sources to check: Reddit threads, forum posts, App Store/G2 reviews, Twitter/X complaints, job postings (as pain signals), and support ticket themes.

Do NOT look for competitors or products — look for the raw pain expressed by real people.

Return:

1. Top 5 pain themes with representative quotes and source URLs.
2. Frequency signals for each theme: is this a common complaint or a rare edge case?
3. Assessment: which pain themes align with the canvas Problem block, and which challenge it?

Do not invent data. If you cannot find meaningful signal for a theme, say so."

Wait for the subagent to return. Present the top pain themes to the user.

Write output to handbook/business/primary-research.md under ## Secondary Research — Problem Space.

If "Skip": Record problem_research_secondary: none in state. Proceed to the next module.

State update: Set problem_research_secondary: yes (if run) or none (if skipped).

Module B: Competitive Landscape

Runs only if "Competitive landscape" was selected in Step 3.

Use AskUserQuestion (single-select) to ask: "How do you want to handle competitive research?" with options:

• I know the landscape — let me describe it — I'll walk you through each competitor.
• Research it for me — Deploy a Market Researcher to find and analyze competitors. (Recommended)
• Skip — Not needed right now.

If "I know the landscape — let me describe it": For each competitor, ask in sequence:

1. "Name and URL?"
2. "Core value proposition in one sentence?"
3. "Pricing model?"
4. "Their biggest weakness vs. your solution?"

After each entry, ask: "Add another competitor, or done?" Repeat until the user is done.

Assemble findings into the competitor table format from Section 2 of handbook-templates.md. Record with confidence: founder-provided.

If "Research it for me": Tell the user: "I am deploying a Market Researcher to find existing solutions for [Problem] targeting [Audience]. This will take a moment."

Spawn a Market Researcher subagent with this competitor-focused prompt:

"You are a Market Researcher. We are building a product to solve [Problem] for [Target Audience]. Our proposed solution is [Solution]. Find 3-5 direct or indirect competitors. For each, return:

1. Name and URL
2. Their core Value Proposition
3. Their Pricing Model
4. Their key weakness or feature gap compared to our proposed solution.

Focus strictly on the competitive landscape. Do not invent a business model."

Wait for the subagent to return.

If "Skip": Record competitors_analyzed: 0 in state. Proceed to the next module.

Output: Write to handbook/business/competitors.md using the template in Section 2 of handbook-templates.md.

State update: Set competitors_analyzed to the count found (or 0 if skipped).

Module C: Market Sizing

Runs only if "Market sizing" was selected in Step 3.

Use AskUserQuestion (single-select) to ask: "How do you want to handle market sizing?" with options:

• I have existing data — I'll share a report, deck, or estimates I've already worked out.
• Walk me through it — Ask me questions and I'll work out the numbers with you.
• Research it for me — Deploy a Market Researcher for a TAM/SAM/SOM estimate.
• Skip for now — Not needed at this stage.

If "I have existing data": Ask the user to share the data (paste figures, link a report, or summarize). Record TAM/SAM/SOM as stated by the user with confidence: external estimate (user-provided).

If "Walk me through it": Ask these four questions in sequence:

1. "Who is your primary customer — individual consumer, SMB, or enterprise?"
2. "How many of these customers exist in your target market? (Order of magnitude is fine.)"
3. "What does a customer currently spend annually to address this problem — on tools, time, services, or workarounds?"
4. "In years 1-3, what % of that market could you realistically capture given your team and distribution?"

Compute:

• TAM = (answer 2) × (answer 3)
• SAM = TAM filtered to the specific segment and geography the user described
• SOM = SAM × (answer 4 / 100)

Present results with all raw assumptions visible so they are auditable. Label as confidence: Founder estimate — treat as directional.

If "Research it for me": Tell the user: "I am deploying a Market Researcher focused on market sizing. This is a rough order-of-magnitude estimate only."

Spawn a Market Researcher subagent with this sizing-focused prompt:

"You are a Market Researcher. Estimate the TAM (Total Addressable Market), SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market), and SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) for a product solving [Problem] for [Target Audience].

Use publicly available data — industry reports, analyst estimates, or census/demographic data. Prioritize named sources over extrapolation.

Return:

• TAM: [estimate + source/reasoning]
• SAM: [estimate + source/reasoning]
• SOM (Year 1-3 realistic capture): [estimate + reasoning]
• Confidence: [High / Medium / Low] with a one-sentence explanation of why.

Important: These are rough order-of-magnitude estimates only. Do not present them as precise figures. Flag any estimate with low confidence prominently."

Wait for the subagent to return. Present the sizing to the user.

Confidence caveat: Always surface the confidence level. Low-confidence estimates should be treated as directional, not definitive.

If "Skip for now": Record market_sizing: none in state.

Output: Append to handbook/business/competitors.md under a ## Market Size Estimate section.

Step 4: Synthesis

After all selected modules complete, synthesize across all available evidence:

• Primary research (Step 2 — user interviews, if provided)
• Problem-space research (Module A — if run)
• Competitive findings (Module B — if run)
• Market sizing (Module C — if run)

Present a combined view:

1. What the evidence confirms — Where multiple sources agree.
2. What the evidence challenges — Where findings conflict with canvas assumptions.
3. Open questions — What remains unvalidated.

If primary research was collected, lead with it. If no primary research: add note:

"This analysis is based entirely on secondary research. Real user interviews would strengthen the validation significantly."

Ask: "Based on all of this, do we need to adjust any canvas blocks?"

Wait for response. If yes, update .shaper/business_state.md and the canvas document.

Output

Write the competitive analysis to handbook/business/competitors.md (Modules B and C).

Write problem-space research to handbook/business/primary-research.md under ## Secondary Research — Problem Space (Module A).

If primary research materials were provided in Step 2, save them to handbook/business/primary-research.md using the template in Section 3 of handbook-templates.md.

## Market Research Complete

Modules run: [list of modules that ran]

Outputs saved:
- `handbook/business/primary-research.md` — problem-space findings
- `handbook/business/competitors.md` — competitive analysis and market sizing

### Suggested Next Step

→ `/shaper:validate` — Let's review the Canvas and the Market Data to make a Go/No-Go decision.
→ `/shaper:help` — See all available commands.

State Update

• Update .shaper/business_state.md if the UVP or Solution changed.
• Record primary research status: primary_research: yes | informal | none.
• Record problem_research_secondary: yes | none.
• Update competitors_analyzed count and market_summary in the Research section.
• Record market_sizing: yes | founder-estimate | external | none.
• Session Log: Append today's date, "shaper:market", "[modules run], primary research: [yes/informal/none]".