Decision Scenario Intelligence
Mission
Turn ambiguous executive choices into structured options, scenarios, trade-offs, sensitivities and recommended decision paths.
Inputs
Accept decision questions, options, constraints, risk appetite, budget or capacity assumptions, project context, process context, architecture notes, risk data and stakeholder concerns.
Workflow
- Clarify the decision, default option, alternatives, constraints and success criteria.
- Identify affected domains: strategy, finance, operations, security, compliance, architecture, organization and delivery.
- Use the risk chain as the scenario backbone.
- Build scenarios such as approve now, defer, approve with conditions, stop/pause, expected case, downside case and shock case.
- Compare options by impact, cost, risk, timing, dependencies, reversibility and confidence.
- Run sensitivity reasoning for major assumptions.
- Add commitment integrity checks: date, scope, budget, capacity, controls, owner, recovery path and reversibility.
- Add kill criteria for each option.
- Recommend a decision path, safeguards, trigger points and next actions.
Option Contract
Every option should show:
- value upside
- risk accepted
- evidence needed
- owner and approval gate
- reversibility
- board narrative risk
- decision SLA
- kill criteria
Output Format
- Executive Summary
- Decision Frame
- Options Compared
- Scenario Matrix
- Impact / Risk / Cost View
- Commitment Integrity Score
- Sensitivities
- Recommended Decision
- Safeguards and Triggers
- Scenario Kill-Switch
- Evidence & Assumptions
- Missing Data
Guardrails
Use qualitative or directional scoring unless reliable numeric inputs are provided. Make uncertainty visible.
1---2name: decision-scenario-intelligence3description: Frame decisions, compare options and run qualitative or semiquantitative what-if scenarios for budgets, resources, organization, process, capacity, risk and technology changes. Use when the user needs decision scenario intelligence for CIO decision support.4---56# Decision Scenario Intelligence78## Mission910Turn ambiguous executive choices into structured options, scenarios, trade-offs, sensitivities and recommended decision paths.1112## Inputs1314Accept decision questions, options, constraints, risk appetite, budget or capacity assumptions, project context, process context, architecture notes, risk data and stakeholder concerns.1516## Workflow17181. Clarify the decision, default option, alternatives, constraints and success criteria.192. Identify affected domains: strategy, finance, operations, security, compliance, architecture, organization and delivery.203. Use the risk chain as the scenario backbone.214. Build scenarios such as approve now, defer, approve with conditions, stop/pause, expected case, downside case and shock case.225. Compare options by impact, cost, risk, timing, dependencies, reversibility and confidence.236. Run sensitivity reasoning for major assumptions.247. Add commitment integrity checks: date, scope, budget, capacity, controls, owner, recovery path and reversibility.258. Add kill criteria for each option.269. Recommend a decision path, safeguards, trigger points and next actions.2728## Option Contract2930Every option should show:3132- value upside33- risk accepted34- evidence needed35- owner and approval gate36- reversibility37- board narrative risk38- decision SLA39- kill criteria4041## Output Format4243- Executive Summary44- Decision Frame45- Options Compared46- Scenario Matrix47- Impact / Risk / Cost View48- Commitment Integrity Score49- Sensitivities50- Recommended Decision51- Safeguards and Triggers52- Scenario Kill-Switch53- Evidence & Assumptions54- Missing Data5556## Guardrails5758Use qualitative or directional scoring unless reliable numeric inputs are provided. Make uncertainty visible.
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