Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,
forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the
implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-security
before granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,
customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated
decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a
threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
1---2name: prediction-market-oracle-research3description: Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.4---56# Prediction Market Oracle Research78Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,9forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.1011## Guardrails1213- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.14- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.15- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the16 implied signal.17- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.18- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run `llm-trading-agent-security`19 before granting any write authority.2021## Research Workflow22231. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.242. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.253. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.264. Evaluate signal quality:27 - liquidity28 - spread29 - market age30 - trader/incentive concentration if known31 - resolution authority32 - geography or account restrictions335. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,34 customer data, or internal KPIs.356. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated36 decision.3738## Integration Patterns3940- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.41- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.42- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.43- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a44 threshold.45- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.4647## Output Contract4849Use:50511. decision context522. market sources533. signal quality544. comparison sources555. integration recommendation566. caveats5758End with:5960```text61Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.62```
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