Presentation Evidence

Build the evidence ledger

Use when evidence is the current gate.

• Read repo instructions, PRESENTATION-BRIEF.md, SOURCE-INVENTORY.md, and the cited source files before writing new claims.
• Read the current mode from STATUS.md; do not assume the mode selected at intake is still current.
• General mode keeps evidence proportionate.
• Record provenance and sufficient qualification for material claims.
• Write EVIDENCE-LEDGER.md from templates/EVIDENCE-LEDGER.md.
• Create one row per material claim, not one row per source file.
• Record the exact source, source type, caveat, allowed use, and the slide or range the claim may support.
• Add dates, definitions, units, or methods when they are necessary to keep a material claim honest.
• Use references/claim-safety.md for research-enhanced claim safety.

Authority & scientific fidelity rules

• Primary & Official Authority Preference: For demographic, economic, suicide/mortality, birth rate, or public health claims, mandate primary/official sources (e.g. official statistical bureaus like DSEC, WHO, World Bank, peer-reviewed journals) rather than secondary news reports or casual commentary.
• Explicit Baselines & Denominators: Always capture the exact reference year, definition, denominator, and global baseline comparisons (e.g. regional suicide rate vs WHO global average).
• Nuanced Literature Fidelity: Guard against oversimplified pop-clichés (e.g. do not reduce complex findings like the Killingsworth/Kahneman income-wellbeing association to "money can't buy happiness").

Research-enhanced mode alone adds A/B/C/D claim safety.

• A: directly supportable in the main talk.

• B: reasonable interpretation with careful wording.

• C: contested or context-dependent, notes or backup only.

• D: unsafe or unsupported, reject.

• Record exact dates, definitions, units, denominators, and methods.

• Record correlation-versus-causation review.

• Record competing measures and stale-value checks.

• Apply official and primary-source preference before secondary summaries.

• Add backup/reference safeguards for contested, overflow, or Q&A-only material.

• Move unsupported but useful material to notes or backup only when the wording stays honest.

• Reject claims that cannot be supported proportionately for the presentation’s mode.

• Stop once every material claim is supported, carefully qualified, moved to notes or backup, or rejected.