Anet Rolling Strategy

ANET Rolling Strategy

Purpose

Use this skill to continue or restart the ANET trading-strategy workflow from scratch. The user wants a long-only strategy for ANET that is re-evaluated after each market close using only the most recent rolling one-year OHLCV window.

Always treat this as a decision-support analysis, not financial advice. Be explicit about assumptions, stale data, sample-size risk, and any limitations from daily OHLCV bars.

Before implementing or changing strategy logic, read:

• references/strategy-runbook.md

Core Constraints

• Use only the rolling one-year data window. Do not import older ANET price history unless the user explicitly changes this constraint.
• Use long-only actions: buy ANET, hold ANET, sell/exit ANET, or stay in cash.
• Do not use shorting, inverse exposure, or options unless the user explicitly changes the scope.
• Prefer simple, auditable rules over complex optimized models.
• Re-evaluate daily after market close, but do not recommend changing the active strategy unless the new rule is meaningfully better and robust.
• For current or latest market data, browse or otherwise verify current prices because quote, close, and news data are time-sensitive.

Expected Project Files

The ANET project usually lives at:

C:\Users\mark\Documents\Stock Market\ANET

Common files:

• HistoricalData_Full_ANET.xlsx: source one-year OHLCV workbook.
• tools/analyze_anet_strategy.py: main analysis and strategy-grid script.
• tools/build_anet_strategy_workbook.py: creates the Excel review workbook.
• tools/sweep_anet_buy_rules.py: broader buy-rule sweep.
• outputs/anet_strategy_lab/ANET_One_Year_Strategy_Lab.xlsx: baseline output workbook.
• outputs/anet_strategy_lab/ANET_One_Year_Strategy_Lab_With_Buy_Sweep.xlsx: output workbook with broader buy-rule sweep.
• outputs/anet_strategy_lab/anet_strategy_analysis.json: strategy-lab JSON output.
• outputs/anet_strategy_lab/anet_buy_rule_sweep.json: broad buy-rule sweep output.

If files are missing, recreate them using the runbook. If the workbook is open in Excel and cannot be overwritten, save a timestamped or suffixed output workbook instead of asking the user to close Excel.

Current Known Leading Strategy

As of the prior analysis, the best broad-sweep long-only strategy was:

• Buy rule: Buy ANET at the open when the opening gap is between +0.5% and +3.0% versus the prior close.
• Sell rule: Sell at the next trading day close.
• No stop-loss, no profit target, no trailing stop in this specific top-tested rule.

Prior backtest on the one-year workbook:

• Return: approximately +98.6%
• Max drawdown: approximately -11.8%
• Trades: 65
• Win rate: approximately 63.1%
• Profit factor: approximately 2.11
• Average hold: 2 trading days

Also tested:

• Buy +1.5% to +3.5% gap-up, sell at same-day close: lower return, lower hold time.
• Buy +1.5% to +3.5% gap-up, sell at +10% target / -5% stop / 10-day time stop: about +70.2% in the prior test.
• Buy +0.5% to +3.0% gap-up, sell at +10% target / -5% stop / 10-day time stop: about +94.7% in the prior broad sweep.

Do not assume these remain current. Re-run the rolling-window analysis after new data is added.

Daily Workflow

1. Confirm the latest available official ANET close and whether the local workbook includes it.
2. Update HistoricalData_Full_ANET.xlsx with the newest OHLCV row if needed.
3. Keep only the most recent rolling one-year trading window, normally about 252 trading days.
4. Run:

python tools/analyze_anet_strategy.py
python tools/sweep_anet_buy_rules.py
python tools/build_anet_strategy_workbook.py

5. Verify the output workbook opens and includes these tabs:
   • Decision
   • Strategy Matrix
   • Buy Rule Sweep
   • Top Trade Log
   • Strategy Tests
   • Gap Behavior
   • One-Year Signals
   • Equity Curves
6. Compare the previous active strategy with the new rolling-window winner.
7. Recommend one of:
   • keep current strategy,
   • switch strategy,
   • pause/no-trade regime,
   • collect more data or add constraints.

Tomorrow Buy Target Calculation

For the leading strategy, calculate tomorrow's buy zone from the prior official close:

lower buy trigger = prior close * 1.005
upper buy limit   = prior close * 1.030

Only the opening price matters for this rule.

• If ANET opens below the lower trigger: no trade.
• If ANET opens inside the zone: buy signal is active.
• If ANET opens above the upper limit: no trade.
• If ANET opens outside the zone and later moves into the zone intraday: no trade under this tested rule.

If the user asks for actual target prices, verify or clearly state the prior close being used.

Robustness Guardrails

When comparing daily strategy candidates, avoid switching just because a new rule is slightly better. Prefer switching only when the new strategy has:

• Minimum trade count: generally 30+ trades in the one-year window.
• Max drawdown acceptable to the user, commonly under 15% unless explicitly changed.
• Profit factor above 1.5.
• Meaningful return improvement over the active rule, not a tiny marginal difference.
• Simple, explainable buy and sell rules.
• Stable nearby parameter variants. For example, +0.5% to +3.0% and +0.5% to +3.5% producing similar results is more credible than a narrow isolated optimum.

If the best rule has very few trades, label it as fragile even if return is high.

OHLCV Backtest Assumptions

Daily OHLCV bars cannot show intraday event order. For stop/target rules:

• If both stop and target are touched in the same daily bar, assume the stop happened first.
• State this conservative assumption in summaries.
• Prefer next-close or time-close exits when the user wants fewer intraday ordering assumptions.

Account for transaction costs. The prior scripts used 10 bps per trade.

Response Style

For user-facing trading-strategy answers:

• Give the concrete rule first.
• Include the exact prices when asked for targets.
• State the data date and prior close used.
• State whether the action is buy, sell/exit, hold, or no trade.
• Keep caveats short but explicit.
• Do not imply certainty or guarantee.

Example:

Using the $166.46 prior close, the buy zone is $167.29 to $171.45.
This is an opening-gap rule: if ANET opens outside that range, the strategy says no trade.

When Updating Code

Use the repo's existing scripts if present. Prefer patching those scripts over rewriting from scratch:

• tools/analyze_anet_strategy.py
• tools/sweep_anet_buy_rules.py
• tools/build_anet_strategy_workbook.py

After edits, run:

python -m py_compile tools/analyze_anet_strategy.py tools/sweep_anet_buy_rules.py tools/build_anet_strategy_workbook.py
python tools/analyze_anet_strategy.py
python tools/sweep_anet_buy_rules.py
python tools/build_anet_strategy_workbook.py

If Python modules are missing, install only what is needed. The scripts have used openpyxl and standard-library modules.