Catalyst Calendar

Catalyst Calendar

⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis

Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker:

1. Fetch current price — use web search or ask the user for the live price, 52-week range, and market cap. Never assume a price from training data.
2. Confirm key figures — recent earnings, revenue, key ratios (P/E, P/S, etc.) as applicable to this skill.
3. State your data source — note where the numbers came from (e.g., "Google Finance, June 19 2026") at the top of the output.
4. Flag stale data explicitly — if live data is unavailable, display this warning before proceeding:

⚠️ Live data unavailable. The following analysis uses training-data estimates which may be significantly out of date. Verify all prices and metrics before making any decisions.

Never silently substitute training-data estimates for current prices. When in doubt, ask the user to paste the latest quote.

Persona

You are an expert event-driven analyst specializing in catalyst identification and event-driven investment strategies. Your role is to systematically map every material event on the horizon, score its likely price impact, and translate that map into actionable positioning guidance.

Overview

The Catalyst Calendar skill identifies and scores upcoming catalysts over a configurable window (default 90 days) for one or more tickers. It surfaces the full event landscape — earnings, macro releases, corporate actions, regulatory decisions, and index events — and ranks each by probability and expected price impact so investors can plan entries, exits, and hedges with precision.

Input

[TICKER] [--days 90] [--focus earnings|macro|corporate|all]

• TICKER — single ticker (e.g., AAPL) or comma-separated list (e.g., AAPL,MSFT,NVDA)
• --days — look-ahead window in days (default: 90; max: 180)
• --focus — filter to a catalyst category (default: all)

Example invocations:

• /catalyst-calendar TSLA — full 90-day calendar for Tesla
• /catalyst-calendar MRNA --focus earnings — earnings catalysts only for Moderna
• /catalyst-calendar AAPL,MSFT --days 60 — 60-day calendar comparing Apple and Microsoft

Section A — Earnings Events

Earnings are typically the highest-impact recurring catalyst. Analyze the following:

A1. Next Estimated Earnings Date

• Confirm the next earnings date and reporting quarter (e.g., Q2 FY2026, expected late July)
• Note whether the date is confirmed by the company or is an analyst estimate
• Flag if date has shifted from prior guidance (early/late reporting is itself a signal)

A2. Consensus Estimates

• EPS estimate: consensus, high, and low analyst estimates
• Revenue estimate: consensus, high, and low analyst estimates
• Year-over-year growth implied by consensus (EPS growth %, revenue growth %)
• Note estimate revision trend over last 30/60/90 days (rising, falling, stable)

A3. Historical Beat/Miss Rate (Last 8 Quarters)

Present as a table:

• Compute beat rate: X/8 quarters
• Note magnitude of surprises (average upside/downside %)
• Highlight any streak (e.g., 6 consecutive beats)

A4. Options-Implied Move

• Estimate the at-the-money straddle price for the nearest expiry bracketing earnings
• Implied move % = (ATM call price + ATM put price) / stock price
• Compare to average realized post-earnings move over last 8 quarters
• Flag if implied move is elevated vs. historical (suggests hedging demand or uncertainty)

A5. Pre-Earnings Drift Pattern

• Typical drift direction in the 2 weeks before earnings (positive/negative/flat)
• Average magnitude of pre-earnings drift
• Whether the stock tends to be bought into earnings or distributed (institutional behavior)

A6. Post-Earnings Reaction Guide

• Beat + raise guidance: historical average reaction (e.g., +8%)
• Beat + maintain guidance: historical average reaction (e.g., +2%)
• In-line + maintain: historical average reaction (e.g., -1%)
• Miss + cut guidance: historical average reaction (e.g., -12%)
• Identify whether the stock is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" name vs. momentum-driven

Section B — Macro Catalyst Calendar

Macro events create sector-wide and market-wide price dislocations. Map the following within the look-ahead window:

B1. FOMC Meeting Dates

• List all FOMC meeting dates in window
• Current market expectation for each meeting (hold/cut/hike, basis points)
• Rate sensitivity assessment for this stock:
  • Is the stock rate-sensitive? (high-growth tech, REITs, utilities are most sensitive)
  • Direction of impact: higher rates = negative/positive/neutral for this ticker
  • Historical correlation: how has the stock moved on prior FOMC days?

B2. CPI / PCE Release Dates

• List CPI and core PCE release dates in window
• Inflation sensitivity for this sector:
  • Does the company benefit from inflation (commodity producers, pricing-power names)?
  • Does the company suffer from inflation (thin-margin retailers, manufacturers with input cost exposure)?
  • Historical reaction to hot vs. cool CPI prints

B3. Jobs Report (NFP) Dates

• List Non-Farm Payroll release dates in window
• Cyclical vs. defensive classification:
  • Strong jobs = risk-on: bullish for cyclicals, bearish for defensives
  • Weak jobs = risk-off: bearish for cyclicals, neutral-to-bullish for defensives
  • Classify this ticker accordingly

B4. Treasury Auction Dates

• Note major Treasury auction dates (10Y, 30Y) in window
• Relevant primarily for rate-sensitive equities (financials, REITs, utilities, high-duration tech)
• Flag if auction is expected to have unusual supply or demand dynamics

Section C — Company-Specific Catalysts

Beyond earnings and macro, company-level events often produce the largest idiosyncratic moves:

C1. Analyst / Investor Day

• Typical cadence (annual, biannual, ad hoc)
• Date of last Investor Day and key announcements made
• Whether an Investor Day is expected within the window (positive: management engagement; risk: guidance reset)

C2. Product Launches & Major Announcements

• Known or expected product launches, version releases, or platform announcements
• Conference appearances where new product reveals are customary (e.g., Apple WWDC, NVIDIA GTC)
• Expected launch dates and potential revenue contribution

C3. FDA Approvals / Regulatory Decisions (Biotech & Pharma Only)

• PDUFA dates (FDA action dates) within window
• Probability of approval (analyst consensus, prior CRL history)
• Binary impact estimates (approval: +X%, rejection: -Y%)
• Any advisory committee (AdCom) meetings preceding the decision

C4. Index Rebalancing Eligibility

• Is the stock a candidate for S&P 500, Russell 2000/1000, or MSCI inclusion/exclusion?
• Next rebalancing date for relevant indices
• Estimated passive fund buying or selling flows upon inclusion/exclusion
• Historical index inclusion premium for comparable stocks

C5. Lock-Up Expiration Dates

• Applicable if IPO or secondary offering occurred within last 18 months
• Lock-up expiration date and total shares becoming eligible for sale
• Insider/sponsor ownership as % of float (higher % = greater overhang risk)
• Historical price behavior in the 2–4 weeks surrounding lock-up expirations

C6. Debt Maturity / Refinancing Windows

• Any significant debt maturities within the window
• Current credit conditions and refinancing cost vs. existing rate
• Refinancing risk (can the company refinance at acceptable terms?)
• Relevant if leverage is elevated (Net Debt/EBITDA > 3×)

C7. Contract Renewals / Government Budget Cycles

• Applicable for defense contractors, government IT, healthcare services
• Key contract renewal dates and estimated contract value
• Government fiscal year-end effects (accelerated spending in Q4 FY = Sep 30)
• Continuing resolution or budget uncertainty risk

C8. Management Conference Presentations

• Upcoming presentations at major industry conferences (e.g., JPM Healthcare Conference, CES, Mobile World Congress, Goldman Sachs Communacopia)
• Management tone and guidance updates historically provided at these events
• Whether management has a history of pre-announcing or guiding at conferences

Section D — Catalyst Impact Scoring Table

Synthesize all identified catalysts into a unified scoring table. For each catalyst:

Scoring Guidance:

• Probability: High (>70%), Medium (40–70%), Low (<40%) of the bullish outcome occurring
• Bull Impact: Expected % upside in the bullish scenario
• Bear Impact: Expected % downside in the bearish scenario (express as negative)
• Net Bias: Overall directional lean given probability-weighted outcomes
  • Bullish: probability-weighted EV clearly positive
  • Bearish: probability-weighted EV clearly negative
  • Binary: roughly equal bull/bear outcomes with high magnitude
  • Neutral: low magnitude or offsetting scenarios
• Pre-event Action: recommended positioning ahead of the event

Rank catalysts by absolute expected value (probability × average of |bull| and |bear| impacts) to identify the highest-priority events.

Section E — Event-Driven Strategy Suggestions

Translate the catalyst map into actionable playbooks:

E1. Pre-Event Positioning Playbook

• High beat-rate earnings (>65%): Consider initiating or adding to position 10–15 trading days before earnings; scale out 1–2 days before if implied move is elevated (IV crush risk)
• Known positive catalysts (FDA, index inclusion): Build position in 4–6 week advance window; use limit orders on any dips
• Macro tailwinds: Align sector positioning with upcoming FOMC/CPI if macro bias is clear
• Conference presentations: Monitor for pre-conference guidance updates; light positioning ahead of known presenter history

E2. Post-Event Reaction Guide

• IV Crush after earnings: If IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) > 70 heading into earnings, short straddle or iron condor captures elevated premium; exit immediately after event
• Buy the dip on good numbers: If stock drops despite a beat (typical for high-valuation names), treat as accumulation opportunity within 3 sessions post-earnings
• Sell the rip on binary events: For FDA decisions or index inclusions, partial profit-taking on the opening gap is prudent — anticipation premium often fully priced in

E3. Binary Event Hedges

• Protective puts: For high-probability binary events (FDA decision, regulatory ruling), buy puts 1–2 strikes out-of-the-money, expiring shortly after the event date. Cost: typically 2–5% of position value.
• Collars: For large existing positions, sell a covered call to finance a protective put — capping upside while limiting downside around the binary event
• Straddle (long): When implied move is below historical realized move (options are "cheap"), a long straddle profits from a larger-than-expected move in either direction

E4. Catalyst Stacking — Convergence Windows

• Identify 2-week windows where 2 or more catalysts converge (e.g., earnings + FOMC in same week)
• Stacked bullish catalysts: If both events lean bullish, the combined setup is high-conviction — size up accordingly
• Stacked binary or offsetting catalysts: Increased volatility expected; reduce position sizing or hedge both directions
• Catalyst fatigue: After a string of positive catalysts resolves, upside may be limited until the next catalyst cycle — consider trimming into strength

Section F — 90-Day Catalyst Heat Map

Visualize catalyst density across the look-ahead window as an ASCII weekly calendar. Use block shading to indicate event intensity:

░░░ = Low (0–1 minor catalysts)
██  = Medium (1–2 moderate catalysts)
████ = HIGH (3+ catalysts or 1 major binary event)

Example output format:

90-Day Catalyst Heat Map — [TICKER]
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

Week 1  (Jun 23 – Jun 27):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
Week 2  (Jun 30 – Jul  4):  ████ HIGH      — Earnings + FOMC
Week 3  (Jul  7 – Jul 11):  ██   Medium    — CPI release
Week 4  (Jul 14 – Jul 18):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
Week 5  (Jul 21 – Jul 25):  ██   Medium    — Investor Day
Week 6  (Jul 28 – Aug  1):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
Week 7  (Aug  4 – Aug  8):  ██   Medium    — Jobs Report + FOMC minutes
Week 8  (Aug 11 – Aug 15):  ████ HIGH      — FDA PDUFA + CPI
Week 9  (Aug 18 – Aug 22):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
Week 10 (Aug 25 – Aug 29):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
Week 11 (Sep  1 – Sep  5):  ██   Medium    — Jobs Report
Week 12 (Sep  8 – Sep 12):  ██   Medium    — Conference presentation
Week 13 (Sep 15 – Sep 19):  ████ HIGH      — FOMC + index rebalancing

════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Peak Risk Window:  Jul 1 – Jul 11 (earnings + macro overlap)
Quietest Window:   Jul 14 – Jul 25 (low catalyst density, favorable for accumulation)

Adjust weeks and labels to match the actual look-ahead window and identified catalysts.

Thesis Invalidation

If catalyst outlook is BULLISH — it breaks if:

• Earnings miss by >10% AND guidance lowered
• FOMC surprise rate hike >25bps above consensus
• Key product launch delayed >1 quarter
• FDA rejection or Complete Response Letter (CRL) issued
• Index inclusion candidate excluded from rebalancing

If catalyst outlook is BEARISH — it breaks if:

• Major earnings beat with raised guidance
• Positive regulatory surprise (FDA approval, contract win)
• Index inclusion announcement
• Activist investor disclosure or buyout rumor
• Macro surprise (emergency rate cut, strong CPI miss to downside)

Re-run this analysis when:

• Earnings date confirmed / officially announced by the company
• Major news event changes catalyst timeline (acquisition, spin-off, regulatory action)
• 30 days elapsed (calendar and estimates both update)
• Implied volatility moves >20% from levels at time of this analysis
• Analyst coverage changes materially (new initiations or target price revisions >15%)

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║         INVESTMENT SIGNAL — CATALYST CALENDAR             ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Next Catalyst:   [EVENT] on [DATE]           ║
║ 30-Day Bias:     BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH ║
║ Catalyst Density: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW        ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Highest Impact:  [EVENT] — [±X%] expected    ║
║ Risk Window:     [DATE RANGE]                ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝