Serennity007 Fundamental Analysis
This skill has been merged into
stock-eval. Use/us-stock-analysis:stock-evalfor comprehensive fundamental + quality + valuation analysis.
Quick Reference — Key Ratios
| Ratio | Formula | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (Price-to-Earnings) | Market Price / EPS | How much investors pay per dollar of earnings; compare to peers and history |
| P/B (Price-to-Book) | Market Price / Book Value per Share | Premium over net asset value; useful for financials and asset-heavy businesses |
| P/S (Price-to-Sales) | Market Cap / Revenue | Valuation relative to revenue; useful when earnings are negative or depressed |
| EV/EBITDA | Enterprise Value / EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral earnings multiple; standard M&A and cross-sector benchmark |
| ROE (Return on Equity) | Net Income / Shareholders' Equity | Profitability relative to equity book value; decompose with DuPont for quality assessment |
| ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) | NOPAT / Invested Capital | True economic return on all capital deployed; compare to WACC to assess value creation |
| Current Ratio | Current Assets / Current Liabilities | Short-term liquidity; >1.5x generally healthy; <1.0x signals potential liquidity stress |
| D/E (Debt-to-Equity) | Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity | Financial leverage; higher ratio = more risk but also more return amplification |
For the full analysis framework — income statement line-item breakdown, working capital cycle, DuPont decomposition, cash conversion cycle, Porter's Five Forces, Piotroski F-Score, DCF, ROIC/WACC, and risk matrix — use /us-stock-analysis:stock-eval.
Standard Signal Output
All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
## Thesis Invalidation
After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
- Price closes below the MA200 / key support level identified in this analysis on above-average volume
- revenue growth decelerates below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters AND gross margin contracts >200bps
- Macro regime shift: Fed pivots hawkish unexpectedly, recession probability >60%
**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
- Price closes above key resistance / MA200 level with volume confirmation
- revenue reaccelerates >15% AND margin expansion resumes
- Fundamental improvement: surprise earnings beat >20% with guidance raise
**Re-run this analysis when:**
- [ ] Next earnings release
- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
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║ INVESTMENT SIGNAL ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Signal: BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH ║
║ Confidence: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW ║
║ Horizon: SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM ║
║ Score: X.X / 10 ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Action: BUY / HOLD / SELL ║
║ Conviction: STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals) Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)