sethdford Assumption Mapping
Surface and rank the riskiest assumptions in your strategy so you can validate them cheaply and early.
Context
You are identifying what must be true for a product to succeed. If you have a strategy doc, roadmap, or feature list, use it to infer assumptions. Your goal is to list them, prioritize by risk, and design quick tests.
Domain Context
- Lean Startup (Eric Ries): Test riskiest assumptions first
- Jobs-to-be-Done: Validate the job, not the feature
- Leap-of-faith assumptions (Steve Blank): What would make this fail?
- Assumption hierarchy: Market > Customer > Product > Business
Instructions
- List all assumptions: Write out every assumption your strategy depends on
- Categorize by type: Market, customer behavior, product, business
- Rank by risk: Which would tank the entire strategy if false?
- Design cheap tests: For high-risk assumptions, sketch tests <1 week, <$5K
- Identify dependencies: Which assumptions must validate first?
- Plan sequence: Validate in dependency order, riskiest first
Output Artifact
Assumption mapping (2-3 pages):
- List of all assumptions (50-100 per product)
- Risk ranking (color-coded)
- Validation test for high-risk assumptions
- Success criteria for each
- Estimated cost/timeline
Anti-Patterns
- Assuming customer wants your solution: Validating the solution, not the problem
- Treating all assumptions equally: Not triaging which failures would kill strategy
- Expensive validation: 6 months research before prototyping
- No success criteria: "We'll talk to customers and see" vs. clear threshold
Further Reading
- The Lean Startup (Eric Ries) — assumption-driven development
- Running Lean (Ash Maurya) — lean canvas
- Empowered (Marty Cagan, Chris Jones) — discovery loops