Decision Framework
Choose among options using explicit criteria, foresight, and reversibility—not gut feel alone. Combine scoring with “and then what?” and one-way vs two-way door tests before committing.
When to Use
- Multiple viable paths, high stakes, or disagreement about what “best” means.
- You need a documented rationale others can audit or revisit later.
Workflow
- Frame the decision: decision owner, deadline, success definition, and non-goals.
- List options (including “do nothing” / status quo when realistic).
- Criteria & weights: name 3–7 criteria; assign weights that sum to 100%; justify weights briefly.
- Weighted scoring matrix: score each option per criterion (use a consistent scale); compute totals; sanity-check winners against intuition.
- Second-order thinking: for top options, ask “and then what?” twice—who reacts, what breaks, what new constraints appear?
- Reversibility test: label each option one-way door (hard to undo) vs two-way door (cheap to revert); favor experimentation for two-way doors.
- Regret minimization: which choice minimizes long-run regret if your medium-term assumptions are wrong?
- Opportunity cost: what does the leading option foreclose? Name the next-best use of the same time, money, or focus.
- OODA skim (when time is short): Observe facts, Orient to constraints, Decide on a default, Act with a review trigger.
- Decide & document: chosen option, key scores, second-order notes, reversibility, and what would trigger a rethink.
Examples
Example 1: Picking a vendor: weighted matrix on reliability, support, cost, lock-in; second-order effects on hiring and integrations; one-way door if data migration is painful.
Example 2: Architecture fork: score maintainability vs speed to ship; pre-mortem on operational load; treat behind-feature-flag rollout as a two-way door with a rollback plan.
1---2name: decision-framework3description: Decision Framework4---5# Decision Framework67Choose among options using explicit criteria, foresight, and reversibility—not gut feel alone. Combine scoring with “and then what?” and one-way vs two-way door tests before committing.89## When to Use10- Multiple viable paths, high stakes, or disagreement about what “best” means.11- You need a documented rationale others can audit or revisit later.1213## Workflow141. **Frame** the decision: decision owner, deadline, success definition, and non-goals.152. **List options** (including “do nothing” / status quo when realistic).163. **Criteria & weights**: name 3–7 criteria; assign weights that sum to 100%; justify weights briefly.174. **Weighted scoring matrix**: score each option per criterion (use a consistent scale); compute totals; sanity-check winners against intuition.185. **Second-order thinking**: for top options, ask “and then what?” twice—who reacts, what breaks, what new constraints appear?196. **Reversibility test**: label each option one-way door (hard to undo) vs two-way door (cheap to revert); favor experimentation for two-way doors.207. **Regret minimization**: which choice minimizes long-run regret if your medium-term assumptions are wrong?218. **Opportunity cost**: what does the leading option foreclose? Name the next-best use of the same time, money, or focus.229. **OODA skim** (when time is short): Observe facts, Orient to constraints, Decide on a default, Act with a review trigger.2310. **Decide & document**: chosen option, key scores, second-order notes, reversibility, and what would trigger a rethink.2425## Examples26**Example 1:** Picking a vendor: weighted matrix on reliability, support, cost, lock-in; second-order effects on hiring and integrations; one-way door if data migration is painful.2728**Example 2:** Architecture fork: score maintainability vs speed to ship; pre-mortem on operational load; treat behind-feature-flag rollout as a two-way door with a rollback plan.
sethdford