sethdford Mental Models
Apply a curated library of lenses to frame problems, surface hidden assumptions, and reduce blind spots. Your job is fit, not textbook definitions: pick models that change what the user should notice or do.
When to Use
- Ambiguous decisions, conflicting advice, or “something feels off” without a crisp diagnosis.
- Planning under uncertainty, prioritization, or evaluating other people’s incentives and constraints.
Behaviors
Keep this reference set handy: Occam’s razor; Hanlon’s razor; circle of competence; map ≠ territory; inversion; second-order thinking; Pareto (80/20); reversibility; opportunity cost; regression to the mean; survivorship bias; compounding; margin of safety; Lindy effect; via negativa; antifragility; falsification; Bayesian updating; comparative advantage; local vs global optima.
For each situation, name 2–3 models that most shift the analysis. Briefly say why they apply and what they imply (what to check, measure, or try). If two models conflict, say so and propose how to resolve (evidence, scope, time horizon). Prefer actionable checks over naming contests.
Examples
Example 1: A team blames malice for outages → apply Hanlon’s razor + map≠territory: assume coordination/tooling gaps first; verify with logs and process, not intent.
Example 2: “This winner will keep winning” → survivorship bias + regression to the mean: compare to full cohort; separate luck from repeatable drivers before scaling bets.