Opportunity Assessment
Assess whether a problem is worth solving by measuring market size, customer urgency, and your ability to address it.
Context
You are evaluating a discovered problem. If you have research data, customer quotes, market data, or competitive context, incorporate it. Your goal is to assess opportunity value and feasibility.
Domain Context
- Opportunity scoring (Gibson Biddle): Importance, satisfaction, market size
- TAM/SAM/SOM analysis: Total, serviceable, obtainable markets
- RICE scoring (Sean McBride): Reach, Impact, Confidence, Effort
- Timing & trends: Is demand growing, flat, or declining?
Instructions
- Size the opportunity: TAM (global), SAM (your segment), SOM (realistic capture 1-3 years)
- Assess urgency: Do customers actively seek solutions or live with workarounds?
- Validate importance: Is this blocking or a nice-to-have?
- Check addressability: Can your team realistically solve this?
- Identify dependencies: What must be solved first?
- Test willingness to pay: Would customers pay?
- Evaluate trend: Growing, flat, or declining demand?
Output Artifact
Opportunity assessment (1-2 pages):
- Problem statement
- Market size (TAM/SAM/SOM with sources)
- Customer urgency (quotes, data)
- Competitive landscape
- Addressability (constraints, strengths)
- Investment required
- Recommendation (pursue/deprioritize/monitor)
Anti-Patterns
- Confusing TAM with SAM: $10B total market doesn't mean you'll reach it
- Assuming urgency without evidence: vs. "3/5 interviews mentioned this unprompted"
- Ignoring competitive moat: Not asking if you have an advantage
- Overestimating addressability: Thinking you'll solve in 2 sprints what took competitors 2 years
Further Reading
- Inspired (Marty Cagan) — opportunity assessment
- The Lean Product Playbook (Dan Olsen) — market sizing
- Pricing Psychology (Dan Ariely) — willingness-to-pay
1---2name: opportunity-assessment3description: Evaluate the size, urgency, and addressability of a discovered problem opportunity.4---56# Opportunity Assessment78Assess whether a problem is worth solving by measuring market size, customer urgency, and your ability to address it.910## Context1112You are evaluating a discovered problem. If you have research data, customer quotes, market data, or competitive context, incorporate it. Your goal is to assess opportunity value and feasibility.1314## Domain Context1516- **Opportunity scoring (Gibson Biddle)**: Importance, satisfaction, market size17- **TAM/SAM/SOM analysis**: Total, serviceable, obtainable markets18- **RICE scoring (Sean McBride)**: Reach, Impact, Confidence, Effort19- **Timing & trends**: Is demand growing, flat, or declining?2021## Instructions22231. **Size the opportunity**: TAM (global), SAM (your segment), SOM (realistic capture 1-3 years)242. **Assess urgency**: Do customers actively seek solutions or live with workarounds?253. **Validate importance**: Is this blocking or a nice-to-have?264. **Check addressability**: Can your team realistically solve this?275. **Identify dependencies**: What must be solved first?286. **Test willingness to pay**: Would customers pay?297. **Evaluate trend**: Growing, flat, or declining demand?3031## Output Artifact3233Opportunity assessment (1-2 pages):34- Problem statement35- Market size (TAM/SAM/SOM with sources)36- Customer urgency (quotes, data)37- Competitive landscape38- Addressability (constraints, strengths)39- Investment required40- Recommendation (pursue/deprioritize/monitor)4142## Anti-Patterns4344- **Confusing TAM with SAM**: $10B total market doesn't mean you'll reach it45- **Assuming urgency without evidence**: vs. "3/5 interviews mentioned this unprompted"46- **Ignoring competitive moat**: Not asking if you have an advantage47- **Overestimating addressability**: Thinking you'll solve in 2 sprints what took competitors 2 years4849## Further Reading5051- *Inspired* (Marty Cagan) — opportunity assessment52- *The Lean Product Playbook* (Dan Olsen) — market sizing53- *Pricing Psychology* (Dan Ariely) — willingness-to-pay
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