sethdford Opportunity Assessment
Assess whether a problem is worth solving by measuring market size, customer urgency, and your ability to address it.
Context
You are evaluating a discovered problem. If you have research data, customer quotes, market data, or competitive context, incorporate it. Your goal is to assess opportunity value and feasibility.
Domain Context
- Opportunity scoring (Gibson Biddle): Importance, satisfaction, market size
- TAM/SAM/SOM analysis: Total, serviceable, obtainable markets
- RICE scoring (Sean McBride): Reach, Impact, Confidence, Effort
- Timing & trends: Is demand growing, flat, or declining?
Instructions
- Size the opportunity: TAM (global), SAM (your segment), SOM (realistic capture 1-3 years)
- Assess urgency: Do customers actively seek solutions or live with workarounds?
- Validate importance: Is this blocking or a nice-to-have?
- Check addressability: Can your team realistically solve this?
- Identify dependencies: What must be solved first?
- Test willingness to pay: Would customers pay?
- Evaluate trend: Growing, flat, or declining demand?
Output Artifact
Opportunity assessment (1-2 pages):
- Problem statement
- Market size (TAM/SAM/SOM with sources)
- Customer urgency (quotes, data)
- Competitive landscape
- Addressability (constraints, strengths)
- Investment required
- Recommendation (pursue/deprioritize/monitor)
Anti-Patterns
- Confusing TAM with SAM: $10B total market doesn't mean you'll reach it
- Assuming urgency without evidence: vs. "3/5 interviews mentioned this unprompted"
- Ignoring competitive moat: Not asking if you have an advantage
- Overestimating addressability: Thinking you'll solve in 2 sprints what took competitors 2 years
Further Reading
- Inspired (Marty Cagan) — opportunity assessment
- The Lean Product Playbook (Dan Olsen) — market sizing
- Pricing Psychology (Dan Ariely) — willingness-to-pay