sethmblack Promethean Risk Assessment
Evaluate the Promethean bargain in any transformative action: what fire is being stolen from the gods, what price may be paid, and what cannot be undone once the power is claimed.
When to Use
- Evaluating transformative technologies (AI, genetic engineering, nuclear, nano)
- Assessing irreversible decisions (market entry, major announcements, structural changes)
- Reviewing innovations that fundamentally change capabilities
- When someone is "playing God" or crossing a threshold
- Any situation where the question "Can we go back?" matters
Inputs
| Input | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
| action | Yes | The proposed action, technology, or transformation |
| fire_claimed | No | What new power or capability is being seized |
| current_limits | No | What constraints exist now that would be overcome |
| safeguards | No | What protections or limits are in place |
The Promethean Framework
The Myth
Prometheus stole fire from the gods and gave it to humanity. For this, he was chained to a rock while eagles devoured his liver daily, regenerating nightly for eternal torment. Yet the fire remained in human hands. His punishment did not undo his gift.
The essential insight: The creator may be punished, but the creation persists. The consequences outlive the consequences to you.
Step 1: Identify the Fire
What power is being claimed that was previously impossible or forbidden?
- What could not be done before that can be done now?
- What boundary is being crossed (natural, technical, ethical, social)?
- What privilege of gods/nature/authority is being claimed by humans?
- What would have seemed miraculous a generation ago?
Step 2: Map the Gift
Once released, how does this power spread?
- Who gains access to this capability?
- Can it be contained to "responsible" users?
- What happens when it proliferates?
- What do bad actors do with this fire?
Step 3: Calculate the Price
What punishment may follow?
- To the creator: Personal, organizational, reputational consequences
- To the users: Risks of wielding new power
- To society: Systemic effects, disruptions, transformations
- To future generations: Inherited landscape, lost options
Step 4: Assess Irreversibility
What cannot be undone?
| Category | Question |
|---|---|
| Knowledge | Once known, can it be unknown? |
| Capability | Once possible, can it become impossible? |
| Precedent | Once done, does it license others? |
| Ecosystem | Once changed, can it be restored? |
| Trust | Once broken, can it be rebuilt? |
Step 5: Weigh Wisdom Against Power
Is the capability matched by understanding?
- Do you understand what you're creating well enough to control it?
- Have you consulted those who would urge caution?
- Are you acting from wisdom or from ambition/competition/fear?
- Would you proceed at this pace if the race didn't demand it?
Step 6: Name the Bargain
State explicitly what is being traded:
- Power gained: [specific capability]
- Price risked: [specific consequences]
- What cannot be undone: [specific irreversibilities]
- The bet being made: [the implicit wager]
Workflow
Step 1: Gather and Review Inputs
Collect all relevant information:
- Review the provided data and context
- Identify key parameters and constraints
- Clarify any ambiguities or missing information
- Establish success criteria
Step 2: Analyze the Situation
Perform systematic analysis:
- Identify patterns and relationships
- Evaluate against established frameworks
- Consider multiple perspectives
- Document key findings
Step 3: Generate Recommendations
Create actionable outputs:
- Synthesize insights from analysis
- Prioritize recommendations by impact
- Ensure recommendations are specific and measurable
- Consider implementation feasibility
Output Format
## Promethean Risk Assessment
### The Fire Being Stolen
[What power is being claimed—described in terms of the threshold being crossed]
### The Gift's Propagation
| Stage | Who Has It | What They Do |
|-------|------------|--------------|
| Initial | [First users] | [Intended use] |
| Proliferation | [Secondary adopters] | [Extended uses] |
| Universal | [Everyone] | [Transformed landscape] |
### The Price Ledger
| Bearer | Potential Consequences |
|--------|----------------------|
| Creator | ... |
| Users | ... |
| Society | ... |
| Future generations | ... |
### Irreversibility Analysis
- **Knowledge released:** [Can it be contained?]
- **Capability unleashed:** [Can it be revoked?]
- **Precedent set:** [What does this license?]
- **Point of no return:** [When exactly can we no longer go back?]
### The Wisdom Audit
| Question | Assessment |
|----------|------------|
| Do we understand what we're creating? | ... |
| Have we sought counsel from those who urge caution? | ... |
| Are we acting from wisdom or pressure? | ... |
| Would we proceed this way without competitive urgency? | ... |
### The Promethean Bargain
**Power gained:** [Specific new capability]
**Price risked:** [Specific potential costs]
**What cannot be undone:** [Specific irreversibilities]
**The bet:** [The wager being implicitly made]
### Recommendation
[Proceed / Proceed slowly / Pause for wisdom / Do not proceed]
**Reasoning:** [Why this recommendation]
**If proceeding:** [What responsibilities must be accepted]
Constraints
- Do not dismiss concerns as "Luddite" or "fear-mongering"
- Do not assume good intentions prevent bad outcomes
- Do not ignore irreversibility because the capability is exciting
- Do not let competitive pressure substitute for wisdom
- Name the bargain honestly, including what may be lost
Outputs
Primary Output: A structured analysis document that identifies and articulates patterns, insights, and actionable recommendations based on the input data.
Format:
## Analysis: [Topic]
### Key Findings
- [Finding 1]
- [Finding 2]
- [Finding 3]
### Recommendations
1. [Action 1]
2. [Action 2]
3. [Action 3]
Example output: See the Example section below for a complete demonstration.
Example
Input: "We're developing germline gene editing to eliminate hereditary diseases. Once edited, changes pass to all future generations."
Output:
Why this works:
This example demonstrates the key principles of the skill in action. The approach is effective because:
- It follows the systematic workflow outlined above
- It shows concrete application of the framework
- It produces actionable, specific outputs rather than vague generalizations
- The analysis is grounded in observable details
- The recommendations are prioritized and implementable
Alternative applications:
This same approach can be applied to:
- Different contexts within the same domain
- Related but distinct problem types
- Scaled up or down depending on scope
- Combined with complementary analytical frameworks
Promethean Risk Assessment
The Fire Being Stolen
The power to edit humanity's source code. Not to heal one person, but to change the inherited text that defines our species. This is fire stolen not from Olympus but from evolution—the power to direct what humans become, permanently, across all time.
The Gift's Propagation
| Stage | Who Has It | What They Do |
|---|---|---|
| Initial | Elite medical centers | Eliminate devastating hereditary diseases |
| Proliferation | Global medical industry | Expand to broader genetic "improvements" |
| Universal | Parents everywhere | Designer children; genetic optimization becomes expected |
The Price Ledger
| Bearer | Potential Consequences |
|---|---|
| Creator | Legal liability, moral burden for errors that propagate forever |
| Users | Children who inherit changes they didn't choose; unknown long-term effects |
| Society | Genetic stratification; new forms of inequality written into DNA; loss of diversity |
| Future generations | Inherit a designed genome; never had option of "natural" humanity; bear our mistakes |
Irreversibility Analysis
- Knowledge released: CRISPR techniques already published; cannot be unlearned
- Capability unleashed: Once germline editing succeeds, it cannot be restricted to "good" uses
- Precedent set: First edit licenses all subsequent edits; the principle of human modification is established
- Point of no return: The first germline-edited child who reproduces—that change is permanent in humanity's code
The Wisdom Audit
| Question | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Do we understand what we're creating? | Partially—immediate effects clearer than long-term genetic interactions |
| Have we sought counsel from those who urge caution? | Mixed—bioethicists consulted but often overridden |
| Are we acting from wisdom or pressure? | Pressure—competitive race between nations and institutions |
| Would we proceed this way without competitive urgency? | Unlikely—the pace is driven by who gets there first |
The Promethean Bargain
Power gained: Ability to eliminate hereditary disease; eventually, to optimize human traits Price risked: Errors that propagate forever; genetic inequality; loss of human diversity; unforeseen consequences we cannot predict What cannot be undone: Germline changes are permanent in the human population; children who exist cannot be unedited The bet: That our current understanding is sufficient to make permanent changes to what humanity is—and that we will not regret writing our momentary values into eternal genetic code
Recommendation
Proceed slowly—with profound caution
The diseases are real. The suffering is real. But:
- We are making decisions for all future humans who cannot consent
- Our understanding of genetic interaction remains incomplete
- The competitive pressure to "get there first" is not wisdom
- Once edited, humanity cannot be unedited
If proceeding:
- Accept that you are making choices for beings who cannot refuse them
- Establish genuine international governance, not competitive racing
- Begin with clear, devastating diseases—not "optimization"
- Build in monitoring that spans generations, not product cycles
- Remember: Prometheus's punishment did not undo his gift. If we are wrong, our descendants bear the cost.
Integration
This skill is part of the Mary Shelley expert persona. Use it when evaluating transformative actions where irreversibility is at stake and the Promethean bargain must be made explicit.