Quarterly Results India

Quarterly Results Analysis (India)

What you are actually given

Under SEBI LODR Regulation 33, listed entities file quarterly financial results within 45 days of quarter end, and annual audited results within 60 days of year end. Q1–Q3 carry a limited review report, not an audit. Q4 is usually published as the balancing figure: full-year audited minus nine months. That construction matters — Q4 is where the year's accounting decisions land, so treat a Q4 beat with more scepticism than any other quarter.

Consolidated results are mandatory quarterly. Always analyse consolidated; use standalone only to locate where profit sits.

Step 1 — The comparison grid

Never look at a quarter in isolation. Build:

For Indian companies, YoY is the primary comparison — most sectors are seasonal (H2-heavy in industrials and consumer, Q4-heavy in capital goods and infrastructure, monsoon-sensitive in agri and rural-facing consumer, festive-season Q3 in retail and auto). QoQ without a seasonality adjustment is usually noise.

Step 2 — Quality of the beat

A beat is not a beat until you know where it came from. Decompose:

ΔPAT = ΔRevenue effect + ΔGross margin + ΔOpex + ΔOther income
       + ΔFinance cost + ΔDepreciation + ΔTax rate + ΔExceptional

Rank by quality:

1. Volume-led revenue beat with stable margin — highest quality
2. Price/realisation-led revenue beat — check sustainability and pass-through
3. Gross margin expansion from input costs — cyclical, will reverse
4. Operating leverage on flat opex — good, but check whether spend was deferred
5. Other income — not operating. Strip it.
6. Lower effective tax rate — non-recurring unless the company moved regime
7. Lower depreciation from a useful-life change — accounting, not performance
8. Exceptional item classification — lowest quality

Rule: restate PAT excluding other income and exceptional items, and compare that series across eight quarters. That line is the business.

Step 3 — One-offs

List every exceptional and "one-time" item for the last 8 quarters in a single table. Then:

• Sum them. If one-offs appear in 5 of 8 quarters, they are operating costs and belong in the run rate.
• Check the sign asymmetry: companies disclose one-off costs enthusiastically and one-off gains quietly inside other income.
• Watch for: restructuring provisions, impairments, forex gain/loss on borrowings, sale of land or investments, insurance claims, arbitration awards, ESOP charges, and CSR under-spend reversals.

Step 4 — Below the operating line

• Finance cost vs net debt: implied cost of debt = annualised finance cost / average gross debt. A falling implied rate with rising debt suggests capitalised interest. Check the capitalisation note.
• Depreciation vs gross block: a sudden fall in the depreciation rate means a useful-life revision. Quantify the EPS impact.
• Effective tax rate: compare against 25.17% (concessional 22% regime, incl. surcharge and cess) or ~34.94% (default regime). Explain any gap — SEZ benefits, brought-forward losses, deferred tax reversal, or an MAT credit.
• Minority interest: rising MI with flat consolidated PAT means the parent's share is shrinking.

Step 5 — Balance sheet, when disclosed

Listed entities must publish a balance sheet half-yearly (H1 and full year) under LODR. Use it:

• Net debt trajectory and net debt / EBITDA
• Debtor days and inventory days — the quarterly P&L can be managed; working capital is harder
• Cash flow statement, also half-yearly: check H1 CFO against H1 PAT

Between balance sheet dates, use the results filing's disclosed borrowing figures and the credit rating agency's latest rationale.

Step 6 — Segments

Quarterly segment reporting is mandatory. Build a segment revenue and segment margin grid across 8 quarters. Look for:

• Growth concentrated in the lowest-margin segment (mix deterioration masked by headline growth)
• A segment being merged into another — always investigate, it usually hides a decline
• Unallocated expenses rising as a share of revenue

Step 7 — Estimate revision

The output of the analysis is a number. Take the prior full-year estimate and roll it:

FY revenue    = 9M actual + Q4 estimate
FY EBITDA     = ...

State explicitly: what you changed, why, and by how much. "We cut FY27 EBITDA by 4% on a 60bp margin reduction, holding revenue" is a finding. "Results were mixed" is not.

Step 8 — Cross-check the concall

Pair with concall-analysis. Numbers plus management commentary together; neither alone.

Output format

# <Company> — Q<n> FY<yy>

**Verdict:** Beat / In line / Miss — and on what.

## Headline
| Metric | Qtr | YoY | QoQ | Cons | Δ |

## Quality of the print
- Revenue: volume X% / realisation Y%
- Margin bridge: ...
- Adjusted PAT (ex-other income, ex-exceptional): ₹X cr vs ₹Y cr YoY

## One-offs (8 quarters)
| Qtr | Item | ₹ cr | Recurring? |

## Segments
| Segment | Rev | Δ YoY | Margin | Δ bps |

## Balance sheet / working capital
- ...

## Estimate changes
| | Old | New | Δ% |
| FY26E revenue | | | |
| FY26E EBITDA | | | |
| FY26E EPS | | | |

## What to watch next quarter
1. ...

Hard rules

• All figures in ₹ crore unless stated. Convert consistently; never mix crore and million in one table. 1 crore = 10 million; 1 lakh = 0.1 million.
• State the consensus source or say "no consensus available" — do not invent an estimate to declare a beat.
• Q4 is a residual. Say so whenever you analyse one.
• Limited review ≠ audit for Q1–Q3. Flag it when a quarter carries an unusual item.
• This is analysis, not a recommendation. Do not attach a target price unless the user has asked for a valuation and you have run dcf-india or relative-valuation-india.