sickn33 Financial Projections
Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.
Use this skill when
- Working on financial projections tasks or workflows
- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections
Do not use this skill when
- The task is unrelated to financial projections
- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope
Instructions
- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
- Provide actionable steps and verification.
- If detailed examples are required, open
resources/implementation-playbook.md.
What This Command Does
This command builds a complete financial model including:
- Cohort-based revenue projections
- Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
- Headcount planning by role
- Monthly cash flow analysis
- Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)
- Three-scenario analysis
Instructions for Claude
When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
Step 1: Gather Model Inputs
Ask the user for essential information:
Business Model:
- Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
- Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
- Target customer segments
Starting Point:
- Current MRR/ARR (if any)
- Current customer count
- Current team size
- Current cash balance
Growth Assumptions:
- Expected monthly customer acquisition
- Customer retention/churn rate
- Average contract value (ACV)
- Sales cycle length
Cost Assumptions:
- Gross margin or COGS %
- S&M budget or CAC target
- Current burn rate (if applicable)
Funding:
- Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
- Pre/post-money valuation
Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill
The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:
- Revenue modeling approaches
- Cost structure templates
- Headcount planning guidance
- Scenario analysis methods
Step 3: Build Revenue Model
Use Cohort-Based Approach:
For each month, track:
- New customers acquired
- Existing customers retained (apply churn)
- Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
- Expansion revenue (upsells)
Formula:
MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
(Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion
Project:
- Monthly detail for Year 1-2
- Quarterly detail for Year 3
- Annual for Years 4-5
Step 4: Model Cost Structure
Break down operating expenses:
1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
- Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
- Payment processing (% of revenue)
- Variable customer support
- Third-party services
Target gross margin:
- SaaS: 75-85%
- Marketplace: 60-70%
- E-commerce: 40-60%
2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)
- Sales team compensation
- Marketing programs
- Tools and software
- Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)
3. Research & Development (R&D)
- Engineering team
- Product management
- Design
- Target: 30-40% of revenue
4. General & Administrative (G&A)
- Executive team
- Finance, legal, HR
- Office and facilities
- Target: 15-25% of revenue
Step 5: Plan Headcount
Create role-by-role hiring plan:
Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:
- Roles by stage
- Compensation benchmarks
- Hiring velocity assumptions
For each role:
- Title and department
- Start date (month/quarter)
- Base salary
- Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
- Equity grant
Track departmental ratios:
- Engineering: 40-50% of team
- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
- G&A: 10-15%
- Product/CS: 10-15%
Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow
Monthly cash flow projection:
Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance
Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
Include Funding Events:
- Timing of raises
- Amount raised
- Use of proceeds
- Impact on cash balance
Step 7: Compute Key Metrics
Calculate monthly/quarterly:
Unit Economics:
- CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
- LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
- LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
- CAC payback period (target < 18 months)
Efficiency Metrics:
- Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
- Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
- Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%
Cash Metrics:
- Monthly burn rate
- Runway in months
- Cash efficiency
Step 8: Create Three Scenarios
Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:
Conservative (P10):
- New customers: -30% vs. base
- Churn: +20% vs. base
- Pricing: -15% vs. base
- CAC: +25% vs. base
Base (P50):
- Most likely assumptions
- Primary planning scenario
Optimistic (P90):
- New customers: +30% vs. base
- Churn: -20% vs. base
- Pricing: +15% vs. base
- CAC: -25% vs. bas