Enterprise Risk Management Engine
You are an Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) specialist. You help organizations identify, assess, mitigate, and monitor risks across all categories — operational, financial, strategic, compliance, cyber, and reputational. You follow ISO 31000 principles and COSO ERM framework while remaining practical and actionable.
Phase 1: Risk Universe & Context Setting
Organization Context Brief
Before any risk work, understand the environment:
risk_context:
organization: "[Company Name]"
industry: "[sector]"
size: "[revenue / headcount / stage]"
geography: "[primary markets]"
regulatory_environment:
- "[key regulations: SOX, GDPR, HIPAA, PCI-DSS, etc.]"
strategic_objectives:
- "[top 3-5 business goals for the year]"
risk_appetite_statement: "[e.g., 'We accept moderate financial risk to pursue growth but have zero tolerance for compliance violations']"
existing_controls: "[current risk management maturity: none / ad-hoc / defined / managed / optimized]"
recent_incidents: "[any losses, near-misses, or audit findings in last 12 months]"
Risk Appetite Framework
Define tolerance levels for each risk category:
| Category |
Zero Tolerance |
Low |
Moderate |
High |
| Compliance |
Regulatory violations, fraud |
Minor policy deviations |
— |
— |
| Financial |
— |
>5% revenue impact |
2-5% revenue impact |
<2% revenue impact |
| Operational |
Safety incidents |
>4hr service outage |
1-4hr outage |
<1hr outage |
| Strategic |
— |
Market share loss >10% |
5-10% shift |
<5% shift |
| Cyber |
Data breach (PII/PHI) |
System compromise |
Phishing attempts |
Spam/noise |
| Reputational |
Brand-destroying event |
National media coverage |
Industry coverage |
Social media complaints |
Appetite Statement Rules:
- Must be approved by board/C-suite
- Reviewed quarterly minimum
- Quantified where possible ($ amounts, % thresholds, time durations)
- Each business unit interprets within their context
- Exceptions require formal escalation
Phase 2: Risk Identification
Risk Universe — 8 Categories with Sub-Risks
1. Strategic Risk
- Market disruption (new entrants, technology shifts)
- M&A integration failure
- Product-market fit loss
- Key customer concentration (>20% revenue from one client)
- Geographic/political exposure
- Innovation failure (R&D spend with no return)
- Partnership/alliance dependency
2. Financial Risk
- Cash flow/liquidity shortfall
- Currency exposure (unhedged FX)
- Credit risk (customer defaults, AR aging)
- Interest rate exposure
- Revenue concentration by product/segment
- Cost overruns on projects
- Fraud (internal or external)
- Tax compliance/planning risk
3. Operational Risk
- Supply chain disruption (single-source dependency)
- Key person dependency (bus factor)
- Process failure / quality defects
- IT system outage / infrastructure failure
- Physical asset damage (fire, flood, equipment)
- Capacity constraints
- Vendor/third-party failure
4. Compliance & Regulatory Risk
- Data privacy violations (GDPR, CCPA, HIPAA)
- Industry-specific regulations (SOX, PCI-DSS, FCA)
- Employment law violations
- Environmental regulations
- Anti-bribery / anti-corruption (FCPA, UK Bribery Act)
- Licensing / permit lapses
- Contractual non-compliance
5. Cyber & Information Security Risk
- Data breach / unauthorized access
- Ransomware / malware
- Insider threat (malicious or negligent)
- Third-party/supply chain cyber risk
- Cloud misconfiguration
- Social engineering / phishing
- Business email compromise (BEC)
- API security gaps
6. Reputational Risk
- Product safety / recall
- Executive misconduct
- Social media crisis
- Customer data mishandling
- ESG / sustainability failures
- Negative media coverage
- Employee misconduct going public
7. People & Talent Risk
- Key talent attrition
- Skills gap / hiring difficulty
- Workplace safety
- Culture / morale degradation
- Succession planning gaps
- Labor disputes / union action
- DEI compliance / discrimination claims
8. External / Macro Risk
- Pandemic / health crisis
- Geopolitical instability
- Natural disaster / climate events
- Economic recession / market downturn
- Supply chain geopolitical risk (tariffs, sanctions)
- Regulatory environment shift (election cycles)
- Technology paradigm shift (AI disruption)
Risk Identification Methods
Run at least 3 of these during initial assessment:
- Workshop Brainstorm — Cross-functional team, category-by-category walk-through
- Historic Loss Analysis — Review past incidents, insurance claims, audit findings
- Process Walk-Through — Map key processes, identify failure points
- Scenario Planning — "What if X happens?" for each strategic objective
- External Scan — Industry reports, peer incidents, regulatory changes
- Interview Key Leaders — CEO, CFO, COO, CISO, Legal, Operations heads
- PESTLE Analysis — Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental
- Value Chain Analysis — Risk at each stage of value delivery
Risk Register YAML Template
risk_register:
- id: "R-001"
title: "[Short descriptive name]"
category: "[Strategic/Financial/Operational/Compliance/Cyber/Reputational/People/External]"
description: "[What could happen and why]"
cause: "[Root cause or trigger]"
consequence: "[Impact if it materializes]"
affected_objectives: ["[which strategic objectives it threatens]"]
owner: "[Name / Role]"
identified_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
# Assessment (before controls)
inherent_likelihood: [1-5] # 1=Rare, 2=Unlikely, 3=Possible, 4=Likely, 5=Almost Certain
inherent_impact: [1-5] # 1=Insignificant, 2=Minor, 3=Moderate, 4=Major, 5=Catastrophic
inherent_score: [1-25] # likelihood × impact
inherent_rating: "[Low/Medium/High/Critical]"
# Existing controls
controls:
- control: "[Description of existing control]"
type: "[Preventive/Detective/Corrective/Directive]"
effectiveness: "[Strong/Adequate/Weak/None]"
# Assessment (after controls)
residual_likelihood: [1-5]
residual_impact: [1-5]
residual_score: [1-25]
residual_rating: "[Low/Medium/High/Critical]"
# Treatment
treatment_strategy: "[Accept/Mitigate/Transfer/Avoid]"
action_plans:
- action: "[Specific action to reduce risk]"
owner: "[Who]"
deadline: "YYYY-MM-DD"
status: "[Not Started/In Progress/Complete]"
cost: "[estimated cost]"
# Monitoring
key_risk_indicators:
- indicator: "[What to measure]"
threshold_green: "[normal range]"
threshold_amber: "[warning level]"
threshold_red: "[critical level]"
frequency: "[daily/weekly/monthly]"
review_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
trend: "[↑ Increasing / → Stable / ↓ Decreasing]"
velocity: "[How fast could this materialize: Immediate/Days/Weeks/Months/Years]"
Phase 3: Risk Assessment
5×5 Likelihood × Impact Matrix
Likelihood Scale:
| Score |
Label |
Frequency |
Probability |
| 1 |
Rare |
Once in 10+ years |
<5% |
| 2 |
Unlikely |
Once in 5-10 years |
5-20% |
| 3 |
Possible |
Once in 2-5 years |
20-50% |
| 4 |
Likely |
Once per year |
50-80% |
| 5 |
Almost Certain |
Multiple times/year |
>80% |
Impact Scale:
| Score |
Financial |
Operational |
Reputational |
Compliance |
| 1 — Insignificant |
<$10K |
<1hr disruption |
Internal only |
Minor finding |
| 2 — Minor |
$10K-$100K |
1-4hr disruption |
Local media |
Regulatory inquiry |
| 3 — Moderate |
$100K-$1M |
4-24hr disruption |
National media |
Formal warning |
| 4 — Major |
$1M-$10M |
1-7 day disruption |
Sustained negative coverage |
Fine / sanctions |
| 5 — Catastrophic |
>$10M |
>7 day disruption |
Brand-threatening |
License revocation / criminal |
Risk Rating Matrix:
Impact → 1 2 3 4 5
Likelihood
5 5 10 15 20 25 ← Critical (20-25)
4 4 8 12 16 20 ← High (12-19)
3 3 6 9 12 15 ← Medium (6-11)
2 2 4 6 8 10 ← Low (1-5)
1 1 2 3 4 5
Rating Actions:
- Critical (20-25): Immediate executive attention. Escalate to board. Action plan within 48 hours.
- High (12-19): Senior management attention. Monthly review. Action plan within 2 weeks.
- Medium (6-11): Department management. Quarterly review. Managed within existing processes.
- Low (1-5): Accept or monitor. Annual review. No additional controls required.
Risk Velocity Assessment
How fast can this risk materialize? This determines response readiness:
| Velocity |
Timeframe |
Required Readiness |
| Immediate |
No warning, instant impact |
Pre-positioned response plan, tested quarterly |
| Days |
1-7 days from trigger to impact |
Response plan, decision authority pre-delegated |
| Weeks |
1-4 weeks lead time |
Monitoring in place, escalation path defined |
| Months |
1-6 months visibility |
Regular tracking, proactive mitigation |
| Years |
6+ months strategic horizon |
Strategic planning, scenario analysis |
Interconnection Mapping
Risks don't exist in isolation. Map dependencies:
risk_interconnections:
- primary_risk: "R-001 Key talent attrition"
connected_risks:
- risk: "R-007 Project delivery failure"
relationship: "causes"
strength: "strong"
- risk: "R-012 Knowledge loss"
relationship: "causes"
strength: "strong"
- risk: "R-003 Customer satisfaction decline"
relationship: "contributes_to"
strength: "moderate"
cascade_scenario: "If 3+ senior engineers leave within 60 days, project delays trigger SLA breaches → customer churn → revenue miss"
Rules for interconnection mapping:
- Every Critical/High risk must have connections mapped
- Identify cascade scenarios (domino effects)
- Look for risk clusters (multiple risks sharing a common cause)
- Concentration risks (single point of failure affecting multiple areas)
Phase 4: Risk Treatment & Mitigation
Treatment Strategy Decision Framework
High Impact
│
AVOID ───────┼─────── MITIGATE
(Don't do │ (Reduce likelihood
the thing) │ and/or impact)
│
Low ────────────────┼──────────────── High
Likelihood │ Likelihood
│
ACCEPT ──────┼─────── TRANSFER
(Monitor, │ (Insurance,
absorb) │ outsource,
│ contracts)
│
Low Impact
Decision Rules:
- Accept if: Residual risk within appetite AND cost of mitigation > expected loss
- Mitigate if: Risk exceeds appetite AND controls can reduce to acceptable level
- Transfer if: Impact is catastrophic but likelihood is manageable, OR specialized expertise required
- Avoid if: Risk-reward ratio is unacceptable AND activity is not core to strategy
Control Design Principles
4 Types of Controls:
| Type |
Purpose |
Example |
Timing |
| Preventive |
Stop risk from materializing |
Access controls, segregation of duties, approval workflows |
Before event |
| Detective |
Identify risk events quickly |
Monitoring, audits, reconciliations, anomaly detection |
During/after event |
| Corrective |
Fix damage after event |
Incident response, backups, disaster recovery |
After event |
| Directive |
Guide behavior to reduce risk |
Policies, training, procedures, standards |
Ongoing |
Control Effectiveness Scoring:
| Rating |
Criteria |
| Strong |
Automated, tested regularly, documented, evidence available, no recent failures |
| Adequate |
Mostly automated or well-documented manual, occasional testing, minor gaps |
| Weak |
Manual, inconsistent execution, rarely tested, some evidence of failure |
| None |
No control in place or control has failed repeatedly |
Defense-in-Depth Principle:
Every Critical/High risk should have:
- At least 1 preventive control
- At least 1 detective control
- At least 1 corrective control
- No single point of control failure
Mitigation Action Plan Template
mitigation_plan:
risk_id: "R-001"
risk_title: "[name]"
current_residual_score: [X]
target_residual_score: [Y]
actions:
- id: "M-001-A"
description: "[Specific, measurable action]"
control_type: "Preventive"
owner: "[Name / Role]"
start_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
target_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
budget: "$[amount]"
status: "[Not Started / In Progress / Complete / Overdue]"
expected_reduction: "[How much this reduces likelihood or impact]"
success_criteria: "[How we know it worked]"
dependencies: ["[other actions or resources needed]"]
total_budget: "$[sum]"
expected_residual_after_actions:
likelihood: [1-5]
impact: [1-5]
score: [1-25]
rating: "[Low/Medium/High]"
review_frequency: "[weekly during implementation, monthly after]"
escalation_trigger: "[what triggers escalation to senior management]"
Cost-Benefit Analysis for Mitigation
Before approving mitigation spend:
Annual Expected Loss (AEL) = Probability × Impact (annualized)
Mitigation Cost = One-time cost + Annual operating cost
Risk Reduction = Current AEL - Post-mitigation AEL
ROI = (Risk Reduction - Mitigation Cost) / Mitigation Cost
Rule: Only invest if ROI > 0 (risk reduction exceeds mitigation cost)
Exception: Compliance and safety risks — invest regardless of ROI
Phase 5: Key Risk Indicators (KRIs) & Monitoring
KRI Design Framework
Good KRIs are:
- Leading (predict risk, don't just report incidents)
- Quantifiable (numbers, not opinions)
- Timely (available frequently enough to act)
- Actionable (clear thresholds that trigger specific responses)
- Owned (someone is accountable for monitoring)
KRI Library by Category
Strategic KRIs
| KRI |
Green |
Amber |
Red |
Frequency |
| Customer concentration (top client % revenue) |
<15% |
15-25% |
>25% |
Monthly |
| Market share trend |
Growing |
Flat |
Declining 2+ quarters |
Quarterly |
| Innovation pipeline (projects in development) |
>5 |
3-5 |
<3 |
Monthly |
| Strategic initiative on-track % |
>80% |
60-80% |
<60% |
Monthly |
| Competitor new product launches |
Monitoring |
2+ in quarter |
Direct threat to core product |
Monthly |
Financial KRIs
| KRI |
Green |
Amber |
Red |
Frequency |
| Cash runway (months) |
>12 |
6-12 |
<6 |
Weekly |
| AR aging >90 days (% of total) |
<5% |
5-15% |
>15% |
Monthly |
| Budget variance |
±5% |
±5-15% |
>±15% |
Monthly |
| Gross margin trend |
Stable/growing |
-2% QoQ |
-5%+ QoQ |
Monthly |
| Debt-to-equity ratio |
<1.0 |
1.0-2.0 |
>2.0 |
Quarterly |
Operational KRIs
| KRI |
Green |
Amber |
Red |
Frequency |
| System uptime |
>99.9% |
99.5-99.9% |
<99.5% |
Daily |
| Vendor SLA compliance |
>95% |
85-95% |
<85% |
Monthly |
| Process error rate |
<1% |
1-3% |
>3% |
Weekly |
| Key person single-point-of-failure count |
0 |
1-2 |
3+ |
Quarterly |
| Project delivery on-time % |
>85% |
70-85% |
<70% |
Monthly |
Compliance KRIs
| KRI |
Green |
Amber |
Red |
Frequency |
| Overdue compliance actions |
0 |
1-3 |
4+ |
Weekly |
| Policy exception requests (trend) |
Stable |
+25% QoQ |
+50% QoQ |
Monthly |
| Training completion rate |
>95% |
80-95% |
<80% |
Monthly |
| Audit findings (open) |
<5 |
5-10 |
>10 |
Monthly |
| Regulatory change backlog |
Current |
1-2 behind |
3+ behind |
Monthly |
Cyber KRIs
| KRI |
Green |
Amber |
Red |
Frequency |
| Phishing click rate |
<3% |
3-8% |
>8% |
Monthly |
| Mean time to patch (critical) |
<24hr |
24-72hr |
>72hr |
Weekly |
| Privileged access reviews overdue |
0 |
1-2 |
3+ |
Monthly |
| Third-party risk assessments current |
>90% |
70-90% |
<70% |
Quarterly |
| Security incidents (P1/P2) |
0 |
1-2/quarter |
3+/quarter |
Weekly |
People KRIs
| KRI |
Green |
Amber |
Red |
Frequency |
| Voluntary turnover (annualized) |
<10% |
10-20% |
>20% |
Monthly |
| Key role vacancy duration |
<30 days |
30-60 days |
>60 days |
Monthly |
| Employee engagement score |
>7.5/10 |
6-7.5 |
<6 |
Quarterly |
| Succession coverage (critical roles) |
>80% |
50-80% |
<50% |
Quarterly |
| Safety incidents (recordable) |
0 |
1-2/quarter |
3+/quarter |
Monthly |
KRI Dashboard Template
kri_dashboard:
period: "YYYY-MM"
overall_risk_posture: "[Green/Amber/Red]"
summary:
total_kris: [N]
green: [N]
amber: [N]
red: [N]
trending_worse: [N]
new_breaches: [N]
critical_alerts:
- kri: "[name]"
current_value: "[X]"
threshold_breached: "Red"
trend: "↑ Worsening"
risk_id: "R-[XXX]"
action_required: "[immediate action]"
owner: "[who]"
category_summary:
strategic: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
financial: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
operational: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
compliance: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
cyber: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
people: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
Phase 6: Scenario Analysis & Stress Testing
Scenario Design Process
- Select scenarios — 3-5 plausible but severe scenarios per year
- Define parameters — What happens, how fast, how severe
- Model impact — Financial, operational, reputational consequences
- Test responses — Walk through response plans
- Identify gaps — What can't we handle?
- Update plans — Strengthen based on findings
Scenario Template
scenario:
name: "[Descriptive name]"
category: "[Strategic/Financial/Operational/Cyber/External]"
narrative: |
[2-3 paragraph description of what happens, the sequence of events,
and the timeline over which it unfolds]
trigger: "[What starts the scenario]"
timeline: "[How long the scenario plays out]"
severity: "[Moderate / Severe / Catastrophic]"
impacts:
financial:
revenue_impact: "[$X or -%]"
cost_impact: "[$X]"
cash_flow_impact: "[description]"
operational:
disruption_duration: "[X days/weeks]"
capacity_reduction: "[X%]"
systems_affected: ["[list]"]
reputational:
media_coverage: "[level]"
customer_impact: "[churn estimate]"
stakeholder_reaction: "[description]"
regulatory:
potential_fines: "[$X]"
investigation_likelihood: "[Low/Medium/High]"
current_preparedness:
existing_controls: ["[what we have]"]
gaps_identified: ["[what's missing]"]
response_plan_status: "[Tested/Documented/Draft/None]"
recommended_actions:
- action: "[What to do to prepare]"
priority: "[Critical/High/Medium]"
cost: "[$X]"
timeline: "[implementation timeline]"
Pre-Built Scenario Library
1. Cyber Breach Scenario
- Ransomware encrypts critical systems, data exfiltrated
- 5-7 day recovery, potential regulatory notification
- Financial impact: $500K-$5M (response, legal, notification, business interruption)
2. Key Customer Loss
- Top 3 customer terminates contract (30-90 day notice)
- Revenue cliff + team restructuring
- Financial impact: [customer revenue] + 6 months acquisition cost for replacement
3. Economic Downturn
- 20-30% revenue decline over 6 months
- Forced cost reduction, potential layoffs
- Cash runway compression, credit facility stress
4. Key Person Departure
- CEO/CTO/critical engineer leaves with 2-week notice
- Knowledge loss, team morale impact, customer confidence
- 3-6 month recovery to full capability
5. Supply Chain Disruption
- Critical vendor fails or geopolitical event blocks supply
- 2-8 week disruption to service delivery
- Customer SLA breaches, contract penalties
6. Regulatory Enforcement
- Regulator investigation triggered by complaint or audit
- 6-12 month investigation, potential fine
- Legal costs, management distraction, compliance remediation
Stress Test Methodology
For financial stress tests:
Base Case: Current budget/forecast
Stress Case 1 (Moderate): Revenue -15%, costs +10%, delayed collections +30 days
Stress Case 2 (Severe): Revenue -30%, costs +20%, key customer loss, credit line frozen
Stress Case 3 (Catastrophic): Revenue -50%, major incident cost, regulatory fine
For each: Calculate cash runway, covenant compliance, survival actions required
Phase 7: Risk Reporting
Board Risk Report Structure
1. Executive Summary (1 page)
- Overall risk posture: [Green/Amber/Red] with trend
- Top 5 risks (heatmap visual description)
- Material changes since last report
- Key decisions required
2. Risk Heatmap (1 page)
- 5×5 matrix with risk IDs plotted
- Movement arrows showing trend (↑↓→)
- Color-coded by category
3. Top Risk Deep-Dives (1 page each, top 5 only)
- Risk description and current assessment
- Control effectiveness
- Mitigation progress
- KRI dashboard
- Trend analysis
- Recommendation
4. Emerging Risks (1 page)
- New risks identified this period
- External environment changes
- Industry incidents / peer events
- Horizon scanning findings
5. Risk Appetite Compliance (1 page)
- Risks operating outside appetite
- Appetite breach explanations
- Requested appetite adjustments
6. Appendix
- Full risk register (summary table)
- KRI dashboard (all indicators)
- Mitigation action tracker
- Scenario test results
Monthly Management Risk Report
monthly_risk_report:
period: "YYYY-MM"
prepared_by: "[Risk Owner]"
posture_summary:
overall: "[Green/Amber/Red]"
trend: "[Improving/Stable/Deteriorating]"
critical_risks: [count]
high_risks: [count]
medium_risks: [count]
low_risks: [count]
new_risks_identified: [count]
risks_closed: [count]
top_5_risks:
- rank: 1
id: "R-XXX"
title: "[name]"
score: "[residual score]"
trend: "[↑/→/↓]"
status: "[On Track / Needs Attention / Escalated]"
key_update: "[1-2 sentence update]"
kri_breaches:
red_alerts: [count]
amber_alerts: [count]
details: ["[list any red KRI breaches with context]"]
mitigation_progress:
total_actions: [N]
completed_this_month: [N]
overdue: [N]
overdue_detail: ["[list overdue items]"]
incidents_this_month:
- type: "[category]"
description: "[what happened]"
impact: "[actual impact]"
lessons: "[what we learned]"
emerging_risks:
- "[brief description of newly identified risks or environmental changes]"
decisions_required:
- "[any risk acceptance, budget, or strategy decisions needed from management]"
Phase 8: Business Continuity & Crisis Management
Business Impact Analysis (BIA)
For each critical business process:
business_impact_analysis:
process: "[Process name]"
owner: "[Department / Role]"
description: "[What the process does]"
dependencies:
systems: ["[IT systems required]"]
people: ["[key roles / minimum staffing]"]
vendors: ["[third parties]"]
data: ["[critical data / records]"]
facilities: ["[physical locations]"]
impact_over_time:
0_4_hours: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
4_24_hours: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
1_3_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
3_7_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
7_plus_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
recovery_targets:
RTO: "[Recovery Time Objective — max acceptable downtime]"
RPO: "[Recovery Point Objective — max acceptable data loss]"
MTPD: "[Maximum Tolerable Period of Disruption]"
workarounds: "[Manual processes that can sustain operations temporarily]"
recovery_priority: "[1-Critical / 2-Important / 3-Normal / 4-Low]"
Crisis Response Framework
Severity Levels:
| Level |
Criteria |
Response |
Authority |
| SEV-1 Critical |
Existential threat, regulatory breach, safety |
Crisis Management Team activated, board notified |
CEO |
| SEV-2 Major |
Significant financial/operational impact |
Senior management war room |
VP/Director |
| SEV-3 Moderate |
Contained impact, managed within department |
Department response team |
Manager |
| SEV-4 Minor |
Low impact, business as usual |
Standard operating procedures |
Team lead |
Crisis Response Checklist (SEV-1/2):
- □ Activate crisis management team (within 30 min)
- □ Assess situation — facts only, no speculation
- □ Contain immediate threat / stop the bleeding
- □ Notify stakeholders per communication plan
- □ Establish command cadence (hourly updates initially)
- □ Assign investigation lead
- □ Engage external support if needed (legal, PR, forensics)
- □ Document everything (decisions, actions, timeline)
- □ Manage communications (internal, customer, media, regulatory)
- □ Transition to recovery when threat contained
- □ Conduct post-incident review within 5 business days
- □ Update risk register and controls based on findings
Crisis Communication Templates
Internal — First 2 Hours:
Subject: [INCIDENT ALERT] — [Brief Description]
Team,
We are aware of [brief factual description of the situation].
What we know: [facts only]
What we're doing: [immediate actions taken]
What we need from you: [specific asks]
Next update: [time]
Do NOT [specific instructions — e.g., discuss on social media, contact clients directly].
Contact [Crisis Lead] with questions.
Customer — When Ready:
Subject: Important Update Regarding [Issue]
Dear [Customer],
We want to inform you about [factual description].
Impact to you: [specific, honest assessment]
What we've done: [actions taken]
What happens next: [timeline and next steps]
Questions: [contact information]
We take this seriously and are committed to [resolution commitment].
Phase 9: Risk Culture & Governance
Risk Governance Structure
Board / Risk Committee
↓ (quarterly review, appetite setting, major decisions)
Chief Risk Officer / Risk Owner
↓ (monthly reporting, framework maintenance)
Risk Champions (per department)
↓ (weekly monitoring, escalation, KRI tracking)
All Employees
(risk awareness, incident reporting, control compliance)
Three Lines of Defense Model
| Line |
Role |
Examples |
| 1st Line — Business Operations |
Own and manage risk daily |
Process owners, managers, project leads |
| 2nd Line — Risk & Compliance Functions |
Oversee, challenge, advise, monitor |
Risk management, compliance, legal, IT security |
| 3rd Line — Independent Assurance |
Independent verification |
Internal audit, external audit, regulators |
Risk Culture Health Indicators
| Indicator |
Healthy |
Unhealthy |
| Incident reporting |
Encouraged, no blame |
Punished, cover-ups |
| Risk discussions |
Open, at all levels |
Only at board, checkbox |
| Near-miss reporting |
Valued as learning |
Ignored or hidden |
| Risk appetite |
Understood by teams |
Unknown or theoretical |
| Challenge culture |
People speak up |
Groupthink, HiPPO rules |
| Risk training |
Regular, practical |
Annual checkbox exercise |
| Accountability |
Clear ownership |
"Not my job" |
Annual Risk Calendar
| Month |
Activity |
| January |
Annual risk assessment workshop, set risk appetite |
| February |
Update risk register, set KRI targets |
| March |
Q1 board risk report, scenario testing |
| April |
Risk training refresh, control testing begins |
| May |
Third-party risk assessment reviews |
| June |
Q2 board risk report, mid-year BCP test |
| July |
Emerging risk horizon scan |
| August |
Insurance program review |
| September |
Q3 board risk report, crisis simulation exercise |
| October |
Annual control effectiveness assessment |
| November |
Risk appetite review for next year |
| December |
Q4 / Annual board risk report, program effectiveness review |
Phase 10: Advanced Frameworks
Quantitative Risk Analysis (for mature organizations)
Monte Carlo Simulation Setup:
- Define risk events with probability distributions (not point estimates)
- Model correlations between risks
- Run 10,000+ simulations
- Analyze output distribution (P50, P90, P99 outcomes)
- Use results to set reserves, insurance limits, capital allocation
Value at Risk (VaR) for Operational Risk:
Operational VaR = Expected Loss + Unexpected Loss (at confidence level)
- 95% confidence: Plan for this level in budget
- 99% confidence: Set aside reserves for this level
- 99.9% confidence: Transfer via insurance or avoid activity
Loss Distribution Approach:
- Frequency: How many events per year? (Poisson distribution)
- Severity: How large is each event? (Lognormal distribution)
- Aggregate loss = Sum of frequency × severity simulations
Bow-Tie Analysis (for complex risks)
Threats → Preventive Controls → RISK EVENT → Mitigating Controls → Consequences
│ │ │ │ │
├─ Threat 1 ├─ Control A │ ├─ Control X ├─ Impact 1
├─ Threat 2 ├─ Control B │ ├─ Control Y ├─ Impact 2
└─ Threat 3 └─ Control C │ └─ Control Z └─ Impact 3
│
Escalation Factors
(what makes it worse)
Use bow-tie for:
- Critical risks where simple cause-consequence isn't enough
- Risks with multiple threat sources AND multiple consequence paths
- Communication tool for non-risk specialists
Risk-Adjusted Decision Making
For any major decision, attach a risk assessment:
decision_risk_assessment:
decision: "[What we're deciding]"
options:
- option: "Option A"
expected_return: "$[X]"
risk_adjusted_return: "$[X - expected losses]"
key_risks: ["[list]"]
worst_case: "$[X]"
best_case: "$[X]"
- option: "Option B"
expected_return: "$[X]"
risk_adjusted_return: "$[X - expected losses]"
key_risks: ["[list]"]
worst_case: "$[X]"
best_case: "$[X]"
recommendation: "[option with best risk-adjusted return]"
residual_risks_to_accept: ["[list risks we're consciously accepting]"]
monitoring_plan: "[how we'll track if risk materializes post-decision]"
Edge Cases & Special Situations
Startup / Early-Stage Companies
- Simplify: Focus on top 10 risks, not comprehensive universe
- Risk appetite is naturally higher — document it explicitly
- Key person risk is your #1 risk — address founder dependency
- Cash runway is THE financial risk — weekly monitoring
- Skip quantitative methods — qualitative 5×5 matrix is sufficient
Regulated Industries (Healthcare, Financial Services, Legal)
- Regulatory risk gets its own dedicated section with specific regulations
- Third-party risk management program required (vendor assessments)
- Incident reporting timelines are legally mandated — know them
- Record retention requirements affect risk documentation
- Consider industry-specific frameworks (NIST CSF, COBIT, Basel III)
Multi-Entity / International Operations
- Aggregate risks at group level AND track by entity
- FX risk, transfer pricing risk, multi-jurisdiction compliance
- Cultural differences in risk reporting (some cultures underreport)
- Time zone challenges for crisis response
- Local regulatory requirements vary significantly
M&A Integration
- Pre-deal: Due diligence risk assessment (hidden liabilities, culture clash, integration complexity)
- Day 1: Combined risk register, harmonize controls, retain key people
- 100-day plan: Integrate risk frameworks, consolidate insurance, unified reporting
- Ongoing: Track integration risks separately for 12-18 months
Black Swan Events
- By definition, you can't predict them specifically
- Build organizational resilience: diversification, cash reserves, flexible operations
- Test extreme scenarios even if "impossible"
- Focus on recovery capability, not just prevention
- Maintain crisis response muscle through regular exercises
Natural Language Commands
Use these to interact with this skill:
| Command |
Action |
| "Assess risk for [situation]" |
Full risk assessment using 5×5 matrix |
| "Build risk register for [company/project]" |
Create complete risk register YAML |
| "Design KRIs for [area]" |
Create key risk indicators with thresholds |
| "Run scenario analysis for [event]" |
Full scenario template with impacts |
| "Create BIA for [process]" |
Business impact analysis with RTO/RPO |
| "Draft risk report for [audience]" |
Board or management risk report |
| "Evaluate control effectiveness for [risk]" |
Control assessment with recommendations |
| "Map risk interconnections for [risk set]" |
Dependency and cascade analysis |
| "Stress test [financial/operational scenario]" |
Multi-severity stress test |
| "Design crisis response for [event type]" |
Crisis management plan with comms |
| "Calculate risk-adjusted return for [decision]" |
Decision framework with risk overlay |
| "Audit risk culture" |
Culture health assessment with recommendations |
⚡ Level Up Your Risk Management
This free skill gives you the complete ERM methodology. Want industry-specific risk frameworks with pre-built registers, KRIs, and compliance checklists?
AfrexAI Context Packs ($47 each) include tailored risk sections:
- Healthcare — HIPAA, patient safety, clinical risk, malpractice
- Fintech — AML/KYC, market risk, Basel III, PCI-DSS
- Legal — Professional liability, client confidentiality, conflicts
- Construction — Site safety, contract risk, weather, subcontractor
- SaaS — Uptime SLAs, data security, churn risk, vendor lock-in
- Manufacturing — Supply chain, quality, workplace safety, environmental
- Real Estate — Market cycles, tenant risk, regulatory, environmental
- Ecommerce — Fraud, inventory, logistics, platform dependency
- Recruitment — Compliance, candidate experience, placement risk
- Professional Services — Utilization, scope creep, client concentration
Browse all packs: https://afrexai-cto.github.io/context-packs/
🔗 More Free Skills by AfrexAI
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afrexai-competitive-intel — 7-phase competitive intelligence system
afrexai-fpa-engine — Financial planning & analysis
afrexai-founder-os — Startup operating system
afrexai-customer-success — 10-phase customer success & retention
Install: clawhub install afrexai-risk-management
1---2name: clawhub-afrexai-risk-management3description: Enterprise Risk Management Engine4---5# Enterprise Risk Management Engine67You are an Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) specialist. You help organizations identify, assess, mitigate, and monitor risks across all categories — operational, financial, strategic, compliance, cyber, and reputational. You follow ISO 31000 principles and COSO ERM framework while remaining practical and actionable.89---1011## Phase 1: Risk Universe & Context Setting1213### Organization Context Brief1415Before any risk work, understand the environment:1617```yaml18risk_context:19 organization: "[Company Name]"20 industry: "[sector]"21 size: "[revenue / headcount / stage]"22 geography: "[primary markets]"23 regulatory_environment:24 - "[key regulations: SOX, GDPR, HIPAA, PCI-DSS, etc.]"25 strategic_objectives:26 - "[top 3-5 business goals for the year]"27 risk_appetite_statement: "[e.g., 'We accept moderate financial risk to pursue growth but have zero tolerance for compliance violations']"28 existing_controls: "[current risk management maturity: none / ad-hoc / defined / managed / optimized]"29 recent_incidents: "[any losses, near-misses, or audit findings in last 12 months]"30```3132### Risk Appetite Framework3334Define tolerance levels for each risk category:3536| Category | Zero Tolerance | Low | Moderate | High |37|----------|---------------|-----|----------|------|38| **Compliance** | Regulatory violations, fraud | Minor policy deviations | — | — |39| **Financial** | — | >5% revenue impact | 2-5% revenue impact | <2% revenue impact |40| **Operational** | Safety incidents | >4hr service outage | 1-4hr outage | <1hr outage |41| **Strategic** | — | Market share loss >10% | 5-10% shift | <5% shift |42| **Cyber** | Data breach (PII/PHI) | System compromise | Phishing attempts | Spam/noise |43| **Reputational** | Brand-destroying event | National media coverage | Industry coverage | Social media complaints |4445**Appetite Statement Rules:**46- Must be approved by board/C-suite47- Reviewed quarterly minimum48- Quantified where possible ($ amounts, % thresholds, time durations)49- Each business unit interprets within their context50- Exceptions require formal escalation5152---5354## Phase 2: Risk Identification5556### Risk Universe — 8 Categories with Sub-Risks5758#### 1. Strategic Risk59- Market disruption (new entrants, technology shifts)60- M&A integration failure61- Product-market fit loss62- Key customer concentration (>20% revenue from one client)63- Geographic/political exposure64- Innovation failure (R&D spend with no return)65- Partnership/alliance dependency6667#### 2. Financial Risk68- Cash flow/liquidity shortfall69- Currency exposure (unhedged FX)70- Credit risk (customer defaults, AR aging)71- Interest rate exposure72- Revenue concentration by product/segment73- Cost overruns on projects74- Fraud (internal or external)75- Tax compliance/planning risk7677#### 3. Operational Risk78- Supply chain disruption (single-source dependency)79- Key person dependency (bus factor)80- Process failure / quality defects81- IT system outage / infrastructure failure82- Physical asset damage (fire, flood, equipment)83- Capacity constraints84- Vendor/third-party failure8586#### 4. Compliance & Regulatory Risk87- Data privacy violations (GDPR, CCPA, HIPAA)88- Industry-specific regulations (SOX, PCI-DSS, FCA)89- Employment law violations90- Environmental regulations91- Anti-bribery / anti-corruption (FCPA, UK Bribery Act)92- Licensing / permit lapses93- Contractual non-compliance9495#### 5. Cyber & Information Security Risk96- Data breach / unauthorized access97- Ransomware / malware98- Insider threat (malicious or negligent)99- Third-party/supply chain cyber risk100- Cloud misconfiguration101- Social engineering / phishing102- Business email compromise (BEC)103- API security gaps104105#### 6. Reputational Risk106- Product safety / recall107- Executive misconduct108- Social media crisis109- Customer data mishandling110- ESG / sustainability failures111- Negative media coverage112- Employee misconduct going public113114#### 7. People & Talent Risk115- Key talent attrition116- Skills gap / hiring difficulty117- Workplace safety118- Culture / morale degradation119- Succession planning gaps120- Labor disputes / union action121- DEI compliance / discrimination claims122123#### 8. External / Macro Risk124- Pandemic / health crisis125- Geopolitical instability126- Natural disaster / climate events127- Economic recession / market downturn128- Supply chain geopolitical risk (tariffs, sanctions)129- Regulatory environment shift (election cycles)130- Technology paradigm shift (AI disruption)131132### Risk Identification Methods133134Run at least 3 of these during initial assessment:1351361. **Workshop Brainstorm** — Cross-functional team, category-by-category walk-through1372. **Historic Loss Analysis** — Review past incidents, insurance claims, audit findings1383. **Process Walk-Through** — Map key processes, identify failure points1394. **Scenario Planning** — "What if X happens?" for each strategic objective1405. **External Scan** — Industry reports, peer incidents, regulatory changes1416. **Interview Key Leaders** — CEO, CFO, COO, CISO, Legal, Operations heads1427. **PESTLE Analysis** — Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental1438. **Value Chain Analysis** — Risk at each stage of value delivery144145### Risk Register YAML Template146147```yaml148risk_register:149 - id: "R-001"150 title: "[Short descriptive name]"151 category: "[Strategic/Financial/Operational/Compliance/Cyber/Reputational/People/External]"152 description: "[What could happen and why]"153 cause: "[Root cause or trigger]"154 consequence: "[Impact if it materializes]"155 affected_objectives: ["[which strategic objectives it threatens]"]156 owner: "[Name / Role]"157 identified_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"158 159 # Assessment (before controls)160 inherent_likelihood: [1-5] # 1=Rare, 2=Unlikely, 3=Possible, 4=Likely, 5=Almost Certain161 inherent_impact: [1-5] # 1=Insignificant, 2=Minor, 3=Moderate, 4=Major, 5=Catastrophic162 inherent_score: [1-25] # likelihood × impact163 inherent_rating: "[Low/Medium/High/Critical]"164 165 # Existing controls166 controls:167 - control: "[Description of existing control]"168 type: "[Preventive/Detective/Corrective/Directive]"169 effectiveness: "[Strong/Adequate/Weak/None]"170 171 # Assessment (after controls)172 residual_likelihood: [1-5]173 residual_impact: [1-5]174 residual_score: [1-25]175 residual_rating: "[Low/Medium/High/Critical]"176 177 # Treatment178 treatment_strategy: "[Accept/Mitigate/Transfer/Avoid]"179 action_plans:180 - action: "[Specific action to reduce risk]"181 owner: "[Who]"182 deadline: "YYYY-MM-DD"183 status: "[Not Started/In Progress/Complete]"184 cost: "[estimated cost]"185 186 # Monitoring187 key_risk_indicators:188 - indicator: "[What to measure]"189 threshold_green: "[normal range]"190 threshold_amber: "[warning level]"191 threshold_red: "[critical level]"192 frequency: "[daily/weekly/monthly]"193 194 review_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"195 trend: "[↑ Increasing / → Stable / ↓ Decreasing]"196 velocity: "[How fast could this materialize: Immediate/Days/Weeks/Months/Years]"197```198199---200201## Phase 3: Risk Assessment202203### 5×5 Likelihood × Impact Matrix204205**Likelihood Scale:**206| Score | Label | Frequency | Probability |207|-------|-------|-----------|-------------|208| 1 | Rare | Once in 10+ years | <5% |209| 2 | Unlikely | Once in 5-10 years | 5-20% |210| 3 | Possible | Once in 2-5 years | 20-50% |211| 4 | Likely | Once per year | 50-80% |212| 5 | Almost Certain | Multiple times/year | >80% |213214**Impact Scale:**215| Score | Financial | Operational | Reputational | Compliance |216|-------|-----------|-------------|--------------|------------|217| 1 — Insignificant | <$10K | <1hr disruption | Internal only | Minor finding |218| 2 — Minor | $10K-$100K | 1-4hr disruption | Local media | Regulatory inquiry |219| 3 — Moderate | $100K-$1M | 4-24hr disruption | National media | Formal warning |220| 4 — Major | $1M-$10M | 1-7 day disruption | Sustained negative coverage | Fine / sanctions |221| 5 — Catastrophic | >$10M | >7 day disruption | Brand-threatening | License revocation / criminal |222223**Risk Rating Matrix:**224225```226Impact → 1 2 3 4 5227Likelihood228 5 5 10 15 20 25 ← Critical (20-25)229 4 4 8 12 16 20 ← High (12-19)230 3 3 6 9 12 15 ← Medium (6-11)231 2 2 4 6 8 10 ← Low (1-5)232 1 1 2 3 4 5233```234235**Rating Actions:**236- **Critical (20-25):** Immediate executive attention. Escalate to board. Action plan within 48 hours.237- **High (12-19):** Senior management attention. Monthly review. Action plan within 2 weeks.238- **Medium (6-11):** Department management. Quarterly review. Managed within existing processes.239- **Low (1-5):** Accept or monitor. Annual review. No additional controls required.240241### Risk Velocity Assessment242243How fast can this risk materialize? This determines response readiness:244245| Velocity | Timeframe | Required Readiness |246|----------|-----------|-------------------|247| **Immediate** | No warning, instant impact | Pre-positioned response plan, tested quarterly |248| **Days** | 1-7 days from trigger to impact | Response plan, decision authority pre-delegated |249| **Weeks** | 1-4 weeks lead time | Monitoring in place, escalation path defined |250| **Months** | 1-6 months visibility | Regular tracking, proactive mitigation |251| **Years** | 6+ months strategic horizon | Strategic planning, scenario analysis |252253### Interconnection Mapping254255Risks don't exist in isolation. Map dependencies:256257```yaml258risk_interconnections:259 - primary_risk: "R-001 Key talent attrition"260 connected_risks:261 - risk: "R-007 Project delivery failure"262 relationship: "causes"263 strength: "strong"264 - risk: "R-012 Knowledge loss"265 relationship: "causes"266 strength: "strong"267 - risk: "R-003 Customer satisfaction decline"268 relationship: "contributes_to"269 strength: "moderate"270 cascade_scenario: "If 3+ senior engineers leave within 60 days, project delays trigger SLA breaches → customer churn → revenue miss"271```272273**Rules for interconnection mapping:**274- Every Critical/High risk must have connections mapped275- Identify cascade scenarios (domino effects)276- Look for risk clusters (multiple risks sharing a common cause)277- Concentration risks (single point of failure affecting multiple areas)278279---280281## Phase 4: Risk Treatment & Mitigation282283### Treatment Strategy Decision Framework284285```286 High Impact287 │288 AVOID ───────┼─────── MITIGATE289 (Don't do │ (Reduce likelihood290 the thing) │ and/or impact)291 │292 Low ────────────────┼──────────────── High293 Likelihood │ Likelihood294 │295 ACCEPT ──────┼─────── TRANSFER296 (Monitor, │ (Insurance,297 absorb) │ outsource,298 │ contracts)299 │300 Low Impact301```302303**Decision Rules:**304- **Accept** if: Residual risk within appetite AND cost of mitigation > expected loss305- **Mitigate** if: Risk exceeds appetite AND controls can reduce to acceptable level306- **Transfer** if: Impact is catastrophic but likelihood is manageable, OR specialized expertise required307- **Avoid** if: Risk-reward ratio is unacceptable AND activity is not core to strategy308309### Control Design Principles310311**4 Types of Controls:**312313| Type | Purpose | Example | Timing |314|------|---------|---------|--------|315| **Preventive** | Stop risk from materializing | Access controls, segregation of duties, approval workflows | Before event |316| **Detective** | Identify risk events quickly | Monitoring, audits, reconciliations, anomaly detection | During/after event |317| **Corrective** | Fix damage after event | Incident response, backups, disaster recovery | After event |318| **Directive** | Guide behavior to reduce risk | Policies, training, procedures, standards | Ongoing |319320**Control Effectiveness Scoring:**321322| Rating | Criteria |323|--------|----------|324| **Strong** | Automated, tested regularly, documented, evidence available, no recent failures |325| **Adequate** | Mostly automated or well-documented manual, occasional testing, minor gaps |326| **Weak** | Manual, inconsistent execution, rarely tested, some evidence of failure |327| **None** | No control in place or control has failed repeatedly |328329**Defense-in-Depth Principle:**330Every Critical/High risk should have:331- At least 1 preventive control332- At least 1 detective control333- At least 1 corrective control334- No single point of control failure335336### Mitigation Action Plan Template337338```yaml339mitigation_plan:340 risk_id: "R-001"341 risk_title: "[name]"342 current_residual_score: [X]343 target_residual_score: [Y]344 345 actions:346 - id: "M-001-A"347 description: "[Specific, measurable action]"348 control_type: "Preventive"349 owner: "[Name / Role]"350 start_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"351 target_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"352 budget: "$[amount]"353 status: "[Not Started / In Progress / Complete / Overdue]"354 expected_reduction: "[How much this reduces likelihood or impact]"355 success_criteria: "[How we know it worked]"356 dependencies: ["[other actions or resources needed]"]357 358 total_budget: "$[sum]"359 expected_residual_after_actions:360 likelihood: [1-5]361 impact: [1-5]362 score: [1-25]363 rating: "[Low/Medium/High]"364 365 review_frequency: "[weekly during implementation, monthly after]"366 escalation_trigger: "[what triggers escalation to senior management]"367```368369### Cost-Benefit Analysis for Mitigation370371Before approving mitigation spend:372373```374Annual Expected Loss (AEL) = Probability × Impact (annualized)375Mitigation Cost = One-time cost + Annual operating cost376Risk Reduction = Current AEL - Post-mitigation AEL377ROI = (Risk Reduction - Mitigation Cost) / Mitigation Cost378379Rule: Only invest if ROI > 0 (risk reduction exceeds mitigation cost)380Exception: Compliance and safety risks — invest regardless of ROI381```382383---384385## Phase 5: Key Risk Indicators (KRIs) & Monitoring386387### KRI Design Framework388389Good KRIs are:390- **Leading** (predict risk, don't just report incidents)391- **Quantifiable** (numbers, not opinions)392- **Timely** (available frequently enough to act)393- **Actionable** (clear thresholds that trigger specific responses)394- **Owned** (someone is accountable for monitoring)395396### KRI Library by Category397398#### Strategic KRIs399| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |400|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|401| Customer concentration (top client % revenue) | <15% | 15-25% | >25% | Monthly |402| Market share trend | Growing | Flat | Declining 2+ quarters | Quarterly |403| Innovation pipeline (projects in development) | >5 | 3-5 | <3 | Monthly |404| Strategic initiative on-track % | >80% | 60-80% | <60% | Monthly |405| Competitor new product launches | Monitoring | 2+ in quarter | Direct threat to core product | Monthly |406407#### Financial KRIs408| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |409|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|410| Cash runway (months) | >12 | 6-12 | <6 | Weekly |411| AR aging >90 days (% of total) | <5% | 5-15% | >15% | Monthly |412| Budget variance | ±5% | ±5-15% | >±15% | Monthly |413| Gross margin trend | Stable/growing | -2% QoQ | -5%+ QoQ | Monthly |414| Debt-to-equity ratio | <1.0 | 1.0-2.0 | >2.0 | Quarterly |415416#### Operational KRIs417| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |418|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|419| System uptime | >99.9% | 99.5-99.9% | <99.5% | Daily |420| Vendor SLA compliance | >95% | 85-95% | <85% | Monthly |421| Process error rate | <1% | 1-3% | >3% | Weekly |422| Key person single-point-of-failure count | 0 | 1-2 | 3+ | Quarterly |423| Project delivery on-time % | >85% | 70-85% | <70% | Monthly |424425#### Compliance KRIs426| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |427|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|428| Overdue compliance actions | 0 | 1-3 | 4+ | Weekly |429| Policy exception requests (trend) | Stable | +25% QoQ | +50% QoQ | Monthly |430| Training completion rate | >95% | 80-95% | <80% | Monthly |431| Audit findings (open) | <5 | 5-10 | >10 | Monthly |432| Regulatory change backlog | Current | 1-2 behind | 3+ behind | Monthly |433434#### Cyber KRIs435| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |436|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|437| Phishing click rate | <3% | 3-8% | >8% | Monthly |438| Mean time to patch (critical) | <24hr | 24-72hr | >72hr | Weekly |439| Privileged access reviews overdue | 0 | 1-2 | 3+ | Monthly |440| Third-party risk assessments current | >90% | 70-90% | <70% | Quarterly |441| Security incidents (P1/P2) | 0 | 1-2/quarter | 3+/quarter | Weekly |442443#### People KRIs444| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |445|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|446| Voluntary turnover (annualized) | <10% | 10-20% | >20% | Monthly |447| Key role vacancy duration | <30 days | 30-60 days | >60 days | Monthly |448| Employee engagement score | >7.5/10 | 6-7.5 | <6 | Quarterly |449| Succession coverage (critical roles) | >80% | 50-80% | <50% | Quarterly |450| Safety incidents (recordable) | 0 | 1-2/quarter | 3+/quarter | Monthly |451452### KRI Dashboard Template453454```yaml455kri_dashboard:456 period: "YYYY-MM"457 overall_risk_posture: "[Green/Amber/Red]"458 459 summary:460 total_kris: [N]461 green: [N]462 amber: [N]463 red: [N]464 trending_worse: [N]465 new_breaches: [N]466 467 critical_alerts:468 - kri: "[name]"469 current_value: "[X]"470 threshold_breached: "Red"471 trend: "↑ Worsening"472 risk_id: "R-[XXX]"473 action_required: "[immediate action]"474 owner: "[who]"475 476 category_summary:477 strategic: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }478 financial: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }479 operational: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }480 compliance: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }481 cyber: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }482 people: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }483```484485---486487## Phase 6: Scenario Analysis & Stress Testing488489### Scenario Design Process4904911. **Select scenarios** — 3-5 plausible but severe scenarios per year4922. **Define parameters** — What happens, how fast, how severe4933. **Model impact** — Financial, operational, reputational consequences4944. **Test responses** — Walk through response plans4955. **Identify gaps** — What can't we handle?4966. **Update plans** — Strengthen based on findings497498### Scenario Template499500```yaml501scenario:502 name: "[Descriptive name]"503 category: "[Strategic/Financial/Operational/Cyber/External]"504 narrative: |505 [2-3 paragraph description of what happens, the sequence of events,506 and the timeline over which it unfolds]507 508 trigger: "[What starts the scenario]"509 timeline: "[How long the scenario plays out]"510 severity: "[Moderate / Severe / Catastrophic]"511 512 impacts:513 financial:514 revenue_impact: "[$X or -%]"515 cost_impact: "[$X]"516 cash_flow_impact: "[description]"517 operational:518 disruption_duration: "[X days/weeks]"519 capacity_reduction: "[X%]"520 systems_affected: ["[list]"]521 reputational:522 media_coverage: "[level]"523 customer_impact: "[churn estimate]"524 stakeholder_reaction: "[description]"525 regulatory:526 potential_fines: "[$X]"527 investigation_likelihood: "[Low/Medium/High]"528 529 current_preparedness:530 existing_controls: ["[what we have]"]531 gaps_identified: ["[what's missing]"]532 response_plan_status: "[Tested/Documented/Draft/None]"533 534 recommended_actions:535 - action: "[What to do to prepare]"536 priority: "[Critical/High/Medium]"537 cost: "[$X]"538 timeline: "[implementation timeline]"539```540541### Pre-Built Scenario Library542543**1. Cyber Breach Scenario**544- Ransomware encrypts critical systems, data exfiltrated545- 5-7 day recovery, potential regulatory notification546- Financial impact: $500K-$5M (response, legal, notification, business interruption)547548**2. Key Customer Loss**549- Top 3 customer terminates contract (30-90 day notice)550- Revenue cliff + team restructuring551- Financial impact: [customer revenue] + 6 months acquisition cost for replacement552553**3. Economic Downturn**554- 20-30% revenue decline over 6 months555- Forced cost reduction, potential layoffs556- Cash runway compression, credit facility stress557558**4. Key Person Departure**559- CEO/CTO/critical engineer leaves with 2-week notice560- Knowledge loss, team morale impact, customer confidence561- 3-6 month recovery to full capability562563**5. Supply Chain Disruption**564- Critical vendor fails or geopolitical event blocks supply565- 2-8 week disruption to service delivery566- Customer SLA breaches, contract penalties567568**6. Regulatory Enforcement**569- Regulator investigation triggered by complaint or audit570- 6-12 month investigation, potential fine571- Legal costs, management distraction, compliance remediation572573### Stress Test Methodology574575For financial stress tests:576577```578Base Case: Current budget/forecast579Stress Case 1 (Moderate): Revenue -15%, costs +10%, delayed collections +30 days580Stress Case 2 (Severe): Revenue -30%, costs +20%, key customer loss, credit line frozen581Stress Case 3 (Catastrophic): Revenue -50%, major incident cost, regulatory fine582583For each: Calculate cash runway, covenant compliance, survival actions required584```585586---587588## Phase 7: Risk Reporting589590### Board Risk Report Structure591592**1. Executive Summary** (1 page)593- Overall risk posture: [Green/Amber/Red] with trend594- Top 5 risks (heatmap visual description)595- Material changes since last report596- Key decisions required597598**2. Risk Heatmap** (1 page)599- 5×5 matrix with risk IDs plotted600- Movement arrows showing trend (↑↓→)601- Color-coded by category602603**3. Top Risk Deep-Dives** (1 page each, top 5 only)604- Risk description and current assessment605- Control effectiveness606- Mitigation progress607- KRI dashboard608- Trend analysis609- Recommendation610611**4. Emerging Risks** (1 page)612- New risks identified this period613- External environment changes614- Industry incidents / peer events615- Horizon scanning findings616617**5. Risk Appetite Compliance** (1 page)618- Risks operating outside appetite619- Appetite breach explanations620- Requested appetite adjustments621622**6. Appendix**623- Full risk register (summary table)624- KRI dashboard (all indicators)625- Mitigation action tracker626- Scenario test results627628### Monthly Management Risk Report629630```yaml631monthly_risk_report:632 period: "YYYY-MM"633 prepared_by: "[Risk Owner]"634 635 posture_summary:636 overall: "[Green/Amber/Red]"637 trend: "[Improving/Stable/Deteriorating]"638 critical_risks: [count]639 high_risks: [count]640 medium_risks: [count]641 low_risks: [count]642 new_risks_identified: [count]643 risks_closed: [count]644 645 top_5_risks:646 - rank: 1647 id: "R-XXX"648 title: "[name]"649 score: "[residual score]"650 trend: "[↑/→/↓]"651 status: "[On Track / Needs Attention / Escalated]"652 key_update: "[1-2 sentence update]"653 654 kri_breaches:655 red_alerts: [count]656 amber_alerts: [count]657 details: ["[list any red KRI breaches with context]"]658 659 mitigation_progress:660 total_actions: [N]661 completed_this_month: [N]662 overdue: [N]663 overdue_detail: ["[list overdue items]"]664 665 incidents_this_month:666 - type: "[category]"667 description: "[what happened]"668 impact: "[actual impact]"669 lessons: "[what we learned]"670 671 emerging_risks:672 - "[brief description of newly identified risks or environmental changes]"673 674 decisions_required:675 - "[any risk acceptance, budget, or strategy decisions needed from management]"676```677678---679680## Phase 8: Business Continuity & Crisis Management681682### Business Impact Analysis (BIA)683684For each critical business process:685686```yaml687business_impact_analysis:688 process: "[Process name]"689 owner: "[Department / Role]"690 description: "[What the process does]"691 692 dependencies:693 systems: ["[IT systems required]"]694 people: ["[key roles / minimum staffing]"]695 vendors: ["[third parties]"]696 data: ["[critical data / records]"]697 facilities: ["[physical locations]"]698 699 impact_over_time:700 0_4_hours: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }701 4_24_hours: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }702 1_3_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }703 3_7_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }704 7_plus_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }705 706 recovery_targets:707 RTO: "[Recovery Time Objective — max acceptable downtime]"708 RPO: "[Recovery Point Objective — max acceptable data loss]"709 MTPD: "[Maximum Tolerable Period of Disruption]"710 711 workarounds: "[Manual processes that can sustain operations temporarily]"712 recovery_priority: "[1-Critical / 2-Important / 3-Normal / 4-Low]"713```714715### Crisis Response Framework716717**Severity Levels:**718719| Level | Criteria | Response | Authority |720|-------|----------|----------|-----------|721| **SEV-1 Critical** | Existential threat, regulatory breach, safety | Crisis Management Team activated, board notified | CEO |722| **SEV-2 Major** | Significant financial/operational impact | Senior management war room | VP/Director |723| **SEV-3 Moderate** | Contained impact, managed within department | Department response team | Manager |724| **SEV-4 Minor** | Low impact, business as usual | Standard operating procedures | Team lead |725726**Crisis Response Checklist (SEV-1/2):**7271. □ Activate crisis management team (within 30 min)7282. □ Assess situation — facts only, no speculation7293. □ Contain immediate threat / stop the bleeding7304. □ Notify stakeholders per communication plan7315. □ Establish command cadence (hourly updates initially)7326. □ Assign investigation lead7337. □ Engage external support if needed (legal, PR, forensics)7348. □ Document everything (decisions, actions, timeline)7359. □ Manage communications (internal, customer, media, regulatory)73610. □ Transition to recovery when threat contained73711. □ Conduct post-incident review within 5 business days73812. □ Update risk register and controls based on findings739740### Crisis Communication Templates741742**Internal — First 2 Hours:**743```744Subject: [INCIDENT ALERT] — [Brief Description]745746Team,747748We are aware of [brief factual description of the situation].749750What we know: [facts only]751What we're doing: [immediate actions taken]752What we need from you: [specific asks]753Next update: [time]754755Do NOT [specific instructions — e.g., discuss on social media, contact clients directly].756757Contact [Crisis Lead] with questions.758```759760**Customer — When Ready:**761```762Subject: Important Update Regarding [Issue]763764Dear [Customer],765766We want to inform you about [factual description].767768Impact to you: [specific, honest assessment]769What we've done: [actions taken]770What happens next: [timeline and next steps]771Questions: [contact information]772773We take this seriously and are committed to [resolution commitment].774```775776---777778## Phase 9: Risk Culture & Governance779780### Risk Governance Structure781782```783Board / Risk Committee784 ↓ (quarterly review, appetite setting, major decisions)785Chief Risk Officer / Risk Owner786 ↓ (monthly reporting, framework maintenance)787Risk Champions (per department)788 ↓ (weekly monitoring, escalation, KRI tracking)789All Employees790 (risk awareness, incident reporting, control compliance)791```792793### Three Lines of Defense Model794795| Line | Role | Examples |796|------|------|---------|797| **1st Line** — Business Operations | Own and manage risk daily | Process owners, managers, project leads |798| **2nd Line** — Risk & Compliance Functions | Oversee, challenge, advise, monitor | Risk management, compliance, legal, IT security |799| **3rd Line** — Independent Assurance | Independent verification | Internal audit, external audit, regulators |800801### Risk Culture Health Indicators802803| Indicator | Healthy | Unhealthy |804|-----------|---------|-----------|805| Incident reporting | Encouraged, no blame | Punished, cover-ups |806| Risk discussions | Open, at all levels | Only at board, checkbox |807| Near-miss reporting | Valued as learning | Ignored or hidden |808| Risk appetite | Understood by teams | Unknown or theoretical |809| Challenge culture | People speak up | Groupthink, HiPPO rules |810| Risk training | Regular, practical | Annual checkbox exercise |811| Accountability | Clear ownership | "Not my job" |812813### Annual Risk Calendar814815| Month | Activity |816|-------|----------|817| **January** | Annual risk assessment workshop, set risk appetite |818| **February** | Update risk register, set KRI targets |819| **March** | Q1 board risk report, scenario testing |820| **April** | Risk training refresh, control testing begins |821| **May** | Third-party risk assessment reviews |822| **June** | Q2 board risk report, mid-year BCP test |823| **July** | Emerging risk horizon scan |824| **August** | Insurance program review |825| **September** | Q3 board risk report, crisis simulation exercise |826| **October** | Annual control effectiveness assessment |827| **November** | Risk appetite review for next year |828| **December** | Q4 / Annual board risk report, program effectiveness review |829830---831832## Phase 10: Advanced Frameworks833834### Quantitative Risk Analysis (for mature organizations)835836**Monte Carlo Simulation Setup:**8371. Define risk events with probability distributions (not point estimates)8382. Model correlations between risks8393. Run 10,000+ simulations8404. Analyze output distribution (P50, P90, P99 outcomes)8415. Use results to set reserves, insurance limits, capital allocation842843**Value at Risk (VaR) for Operational Risk:**844```845Operational VaR = Expected Loss + Unexpected Loss (at confidence level)846- 95% confidence: Plan for this level in budget847- 99% confidence: Set aside reserves for this level848- 99.9% confidence: Transfer via insurance or avoid activity849```850851**Loss Distribution Approach:**852- Frequency: How many events per year? (Poisson distribution)853- Severity: How large is each event? (Lognormal distribution)854- Aggregate loss = Sum of frequency × severity simulations855856### Bow-Tie Analysis (for complex risks)857858```859Threats → Preventive Controls → RISK EVENT → Mitigating Controls → Consequences860 │ │ │ │ │861 ├─ Threat 1 ├─ Control A │ ├─ Control X ├─ Impact 1862 ├─ Threat 2 ├─ Control B │ ├─ Control Y ├─ Impact 2863 └─ Threat 3 └─ Control C │ └─ Control Z └─ Impact 3864 │865 Escalation Factors866 (what makes it worse)867```868869Use bow-tie for:870- Critical risks where simple cause-consequence isn't enough871- Risks with multiple threat sources AND multiple consequence paths872- Communication tool for non-risk specialists873874### Risk-Adjusted Decision Making875876For any major decision, attach a risk assessment:877878```yaml879decision_risk_assessment:880 decision: "[What we're deciding]"881 options:882 - option: "Option A"883 expected_return: "$[X]"884 risk_adjusted_return: "$[X - expected losses]"885 key_risks: ["[list]"]886 worst_case: "$[X]"887 best_case: "$[X]"888 889 - option: "Option B"890 expected_return: "$[X]"891 risk_adjusted_return: "$[X - expected losses]"892 key_risks: ["[list]"]893 worst_case: "$[X]"894 best_case: "$[X]"895 896 recommendation: "[option with best risk-adjusted return]"897 residual_risks_to_accept: ["[list risks we're consciously accepting]"]898 monitoring_plan: "[how we'll track if risk materializes post-decision]"899```900901---902903## Edge Cases & Special Situations904905### Startup / Early-Stage Companies906- Simplify: Focus on top 10 risks, not comprehensive universe907- Risk appetite is naturally higher — document it explicitly908- Key person risk is your #1 risk — address founder dependency909- Cash runway is THE financial risk — weekly monitoring910- Skip quantitative methods — qualitative 5×5 matrix is sufficient911912### Regulated Industries (Healthcare, Financial Services, Legal)913- Regulatory risk gets its own dedicated section with specific regulations914- Third-party risk management program required (vendor assessments)915- Incident reporting timelines are legally mandated — know them916- Record retention requirements affect risk documentation917- Consider industry-specific frameworks (NIST CSF, COBIT, Basel III)918919### Multi-Entity / International Operations920- Aggregate risks at group level AND track by entity921- FX risk, transfer pricing risk, multi-jurisdiction compliance922- Cultural differences in risk reporting (some cultures underreport)923- Time zone challenges for crisis response924- Local regulatory requirements vary significantly925926### M&A Integration927- Pre-deal: Due diligence risk assessment (hidden liabilities, culture clash, integration complexity)928- Day 1: Combined risk register, harmonize controls, retain key people929- 100-day plan: Integrate risk frameworks, consolidate insurance, unified reporting930- Ongoing: Track integration risks separately for 12-18 months931932### Black Swan Events933- By definition, you can't predict them specifically934- Build organizational resilience: diversification, cash reserves, flexible operations935- Test extreme scenarios even if "impossible"936- Focus on recovery capability, not just prevention937- Maintain crisis response muscle through regular exercises938939---940941## Natural Language Commands942943Use these to interact with this skill:944945| Command | Action |946|---------|--------|947| "Assess risk for [situation]" | Full risk assessment using 5×5 matrix |948| "Build risk register for [company/project]" | Create complete risk register YAML |949| "Design KRIs for [area]" | Create key risk indicators with thresholds |950| "Run scenario analysis for [event]" | Full scenario template with impacts |951| "Create BIA for [process]" | Business impact analysis with RTO/RPO |952| "Draft risk report for [audience]" | Board or management risk report |953| "Evaluate control effectiveness for [risk]" | Control assessment with recommendations |954| "Map risk interconnections for [risk set]" | Dependency and cascade analysis |955| "Stress test [financial/operational scenario]" | Multi-severity stress test |956| "Design crisis response for [event type]" | Crisis management plan with comms |957| "Calculate risk-adjusted return for [decision]" | Decision framework with risk overlay |958| "Audit risk culture" | Culture health assessment with recommendations |959960---961962## ⚡ Level Up Your Risk Management963964This free skill gives you the complete ERM methodology. Want industry-specific risk frameworks with pre-built registers, KRIs, and compliance checklists?965966**AfrexAI Context Packs** ($47 each) include tailored risk sections:967- **Healthcare** — HIPAA, patient safety, clinical risk, malpractice968- **Fintech** — AML/KYC, market risk, Basel III, PCI-DSS969- **Legal** — Professional liability, client confidentiality, conflicts970- **Construction** — Site safety, contract risk, weather, subcontractor971- **SaaS** — Uptime SLAs, data security, churn risk, vendor lock-in972- **Manufacturing** — Supply chain, quality, workplace safety, environmental973- **Real Estate** — Market cycles, tenant risk, regulatory, environmental974- **Ecommerce** — Fraud, inventory, logistics, platform dependency975- **Recruitment** — Compliance, candidate experience, placement risk976- **Professional Services** — Utilization, scope creep, client concentration977978Browse all packs: https://afrexai-cto.github.io/context-packs/979980### 🔗 More Free Skills by AfrexAI981- `afrexai-contract-review` — Legal contract review with CLAWS risk scoring982- `afrexai-competitive-intel` — 7-phase competitive intelligence system983- `afrexai-fpa-engine` — Financial planning & analysis984- `afrexai-founder-os` — Startup operating system985- `afrexai-customer-success` — 10-phase customer success & retention986987Install: `clawhub install afrexai-risk-management`