SKE-Labs Fibonacci Trading
Fibonacci ratios provide a reproducible coordinate grid over a chosen swing. Empirical evidence does not support special standalone bounce power; use them only as candidate features or chart labels.
Levels
Retracement (Entries)
| Level | Use |
|---|---|
| 23.6% | Shallow pullback |
| 38.2% | Moderate pullback |
| 50.0% | Half retracement |
| 61.8% | Fibonacci-derived coordinate |
| 78.6% | Deep pullback |
Formula: Retracement = High - Range * Ratio (where Range = High - Low)
Extension (Targets)
| Level | Use |
|---|---|
| 127.2% | Candidate extension coordinate |
| 161.8% | Candidate extension coordinate |
| 200% | Range multiple coordinate |
| 261.8% | Candidate extension coordinate |
Formula: Extension = High + Range * Ratio (e.g., 127.2% = High + Range * 0.272)
Drawing Rules
- Bullish measurement: draw from an objectively confirmed swing low to high.
- Bearish measurement: draw from an objectively confirmed swing high to low.
- A coordinate is not an entry/target until a separately specified rule selects it.
Workflow
Get candle data around the swing:
get_candles_around_date(symbol=<symbol>, exchange=<exchange>, interval=<interval>, date=<swing_date>)Draw Fibonacci retracement on chart (auto-renders all standard levels):
draw_chart_analysis(action="create", drawing={ "type": "fib_retracement", "points": [ {"time": <swing_low_timestamp>, "price": <swing_low_price>}, {"time": <swing_high_timestamp>, "price": <swing_high_price>} ], "options": {"text": "Fib Retracement"} })Check confluence with indicators:
get_indicators(indicator_code="rsi", symbol=<symbol>, exchange=<exchange>, interval=<interval>) get_indicators(indicator_code="macd", symbol=<symbol>, exchange=<exchange>, interval=<interval>)Mark confluence zones where Fib levels overlap with other structures:
draw_chart_analysis(action="create", drawing={ "type": "demand", "points": [ {"time": <zone_start_time>, "price": <zone_top>}, {"time": <zone_end_time>, "price": <zone_bottom>} ], "options": {"text": "61.8% + OB"} })Apply a testable trigger: define rejection/structure numerically and compare Fibonacci overlap with equal-width non-Fibonacci controls
Evidence and Validation
- Treat the setup as a testable hypothesis, not a prediction. Define thresholds, entry, invalidation, and exit before evaluating outcomes.
- Calibrate on the same instrument, venue, session, and timeframe. Use closed candles and a held-out or walk-forward sample; record every variant tried.
- Include spread, fees, slippage, borrow or funding, partial fills, and latency. Reject the setup when net expectancy is not positive or depends on one narrow parameter.
- Return observed inputs, missing data, cost assumptions, entry, invalidation, exit, and a valid, watch, or no-trade status.
- Research basis: A multi-market empirical study found bounce rates at Fibonacci zones statistically indistinguishable from non-Fibonacci zones and no standalone outperformance.
Key Rules
- Define swing pivots, confirmation delay, and range before viewing the outcome.
- Do not trade a Fibonacci coordinate alone or assume confluence creates independent evidence.
- Never privilege 61.8% without held-out incremental results.
- Place invalidation where the underlying price thesis fails, then size accordingly.
- Set exits from tested structure/time rules; extensions are chart coordinates only.
Related Skills
- supply-demand-zones — test whether retracement coordinates overlap with objectively defined candle zones
- multi-timeframe-analysis — use Fib across timeframes for precise entry and target levels