On-Chain Analysis
Interpret blockchain data to understand market participant behavior and identify macro accumulation/distribution phases.
Note: Agent does not have direct on-chain API access. Use this framework to interpret on-chain data found via get_financial_news.
Exchange Flows
| Metric |
Accumulation hypothesis |
Distribution hypothesis |
| Exchange net flow |
Persistent outflow |
Persistent inflow |
| Exchange reserves |
Decreasing |
Increasing |
| Stablecoin flows |
Dry-powder hypothesis |
Redemption or risk-off hypothesis |
Wallet Activity
| Metric |
Growth hypothesis |
Weakness hypothesis |
| Whale accumulation |
High |
Low |
| Long-term holder supply |
Increasing |
Decreasing |
| Active addresses |
Growing |
Declining |
Normalization
Do not reuse absolute BTC thresholds across eras or networks. For every metric, record provider, definition, unit, entity-adjustment status, timestamp, revision policy, and a trailing percentile or robust z-score. Multiple metrics derived from the same transaction graph are correlated and do not count as independent votes.
MVRV Ratio
| MVRV Range |
Interpretation |
Action |
| High relative to its own history |
Large aggregate unrealized profit |
Distribution risk, not an automatic sale |
| Near 1 |
Market value near realized value |
Cost-basis context, not fair value |
| Below 1 |
Aggregate unrealized loss |
Stress context, not an automatic buy |
For NVT and activity metrics, match the numerator and denominator frequency and account for batching, L2 migration, exchange-internal transfers, spam, and changes in address clustering. “Active address” is not the same as a user.
Workflow
- Gather on-chain intelligence from news sources:
get_financial_news(topic="BTC on-chain exchange outflow whale accumulation")
get_financial_news(topic="BTC MVRV NVT realized cap ratio")
- Check current price and momentum for technical confirmation:
get_candles(symbol="BTC/USD", exchange="binance", interval="1d", count=1)
get_indicators(indicator_code="rsi", symbol="BTC/USD", exchange="binance", interval="1d")
get_indicators(indicator_code="macd", symbol="BTC/USD", exchange="binance", interval="1d")
Classify evidence: separate observed metric changes from provider interpretation and from the trading hypothesis. Reconcile contradictory metrics instead of counting votes.
Report macro thesis: on-chain regime, metric alignment count, technical confirmation status, key levels, and confidence level.
Evidence and Validation
- Treat the setup as a testable hypothesis, not a prediction. Define thresholds, entry, invalidation, and exit before evaluating outcomes.
- Calibrate on the same instrument, venue, session, and timeframe. Use closed candles and a held-out or walk-forward sample; record every variant tried.
- Include spread, fees, slippage, borrow or funding, partial fills, and latency. Reject the setup when net expectancy is not positive or depends on one narrow parameter.
- Return observed inputs, missing data, cost assumptions, entry, invalidation, exit, and a valid, watch, or no-trade status.
- Research basis: Glassnode's MVRV methodology defines the metric, while entity-adjustment notes explain clustering and revision risk; neither supports universal cutoffs.
Key Rules
- Match each on-chain metric's timestamp, revision latency, and tested forecast horizon; do not assume one universal horizon.
- NEVER convert a count of correlated metrics into “high confidence” without testing incremental information
- Large transfers may be internal exchange movements -- context matters
- On-chain data is lagging; it confirms trends rather than predicting them
- LTH selling = distribution phase warning; LTH accumulating = bullish macro signal
Related Skills
- altcoin-rotation -- on-chain metrics confirm cycle phases driving rotation decisions
- dca-strategy -- MVRV and realized cap identify macro accumulation zones for enhanced DCA
1---2name: on-chain-analysis3description: Analyze on-chain metrics with provider, entity-adjustment, revision, and normalization controls. Use when evaluating holder behavior, exchange flows, valuation ratios, or network activity as contextual trading features.4license: Apache-2.05---67# On-Chain Analysis89Interpret blockchain data to understand market participant behavior and identify macro accumulation/distribution phases.1011> **Note:** Agent does not have direct on-chain API access. Use this framework to interpret on-chain data found via `get_financial_news`.1213## Exchange Flows1415| Metric | Accumulation hypothesis | Distribution hypothesis |16| ----------------- | ------------------- | -------------- |17| Exchange net flow | Persistent outflow | Persistent inflow |18| Exchange reserves | Decreasing | Increasing |19| Stablecoin flows | Dry-powder hypothesis | Redemption or risk-off hypothesis |2021## Wallet Activity2223| Metric | Growth hypothesis | Weakness hypothesis |24| ----------------------- | ---------- | ---------- |25| Whale accumulation | High | Low |26| Long-term holder supply | Increasing | Decreasing |27| Active addresses | Growing | Declining |2829## Normalization3031Do not reuse absolute BTC thresholds across eras or networks. For every metric, record provider, definition, unit, entity-adjustment status, timestamp, revision policy, and a trailing percentile or robust z-score. Multiple metrics derived from the same transaction graph are correlated and do not count as independent votes.3233## MVRV Ratio3435| MVRV Range | Interpretation | Action |36| ---------- | ------------------------------------- | ---------------------- |37| High relative to its own history | Large aggregate unrealized profit | Distribution risk, not an automatic sale |38| Near 1 | Market value near realized value | Cost-basis context, not fair value |39| Below 1 | Aggregate unrealized loss | Stress context, not an automatic buy |4041For NVT and activity metrics, match the numerator and denominator frequency and account for batching, L2 migration, exchange-internal transfers, spam, and changes in address clustering. “Active address” is not the same as a user.4243## Workflow44451. **Gather on-chain intelligence** from news sources:46```47get_financial_news(topic="BTC on-chain exchange outflow whale accumulation")48get_financial_news(topic="BTC MVRV NVT realized cap ratio")49```50512. **Check current price and momentum** for technical confirmation:52```53get_candles(symbol="BTC/USD", exchange="binance", interval="1d", count=1)54get_indicators(indicator_code="rsi", symbol="BTC/USD", exchange="binance", interval="1d")55get_indicators(indicator_code="macd", symbol="BTC/USD", exchange="binance", interval="1d")56```57583. **Classify evidence**: separate observed metric changes from provider interpretation and from the trading hypothesis. Reconcile contradictory metrics instead of counting votes.59604. **Report macro thesis**: on-chain regime, metric alignment count, technical confirmation status, key levels, and confidence level.6162## Evidence and Validation6364- Treat the setup as a testable hypothesis, not a prediction. Define thresholds, entry, invalidation, and exit before evaluating outcomes.65- Calibrate on the same instrument, venue, session, and timeframe. Use closed candles and a held-out or walk-forward sample; record every variant tried.66- Include spread, fees, slippage, borrow or funding, partial fills, and latency. Reject the setup when net expectancy is not positive or depends on one narrow parameter.67- Return observed inputs, missing data, cost assumptions, entry, invalidation, exit, and a valid, watch, or no-trade status.68- Research basis: [Glassnode's MVRV methodology](https://docs.glassnode.com/guides-and-tutorials/metric-guides/mvrv/mvrv-ratio) defines the metric, while [entity-adjustment notes](https://docs.glassnode.com/guides-and-tutorials/on-chain-concepts/entity-adjusted-metrics) explain clustering and revision risk; neither supports universal cutoffs.6970## Key Rules7172- Match each on-chain metric's timestamp, revision latency, and tested forecast horizon; do not assume one universal horizon.73- NEVER convert a count of correlated metrics into “high confidence” without testing incremental information74- Large transfers may be internal exchange movements -- context matters75- On-chain data is lagging; it confirms trends rather than predicting them76- LTH selling = distribution phase warning; LTH accumulating = bullish macro signal7778## Related Skills7980- **altcoin-rotation** -- on-chain metrics confirm cycle phases driving rotation decisions81- **dca-strategy** -- MVRV and realized cap identify macro accumulation zones for enhanced DCA
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