Earnings Intelligence

Earnings Intelligence

When to Activate

Trigger when user asks: "earnings analysis", "quarterly results", "earnings call", "management commentary", "guidance", "what did management say", "earnings surprise", "beat/miss", "tone of the call", "red flags", "sentiment analysis", "IC earnings summary", "earnings deep-dive"

Workflow

Step 1: Integrated Earnings Snapshot

Tool: financial_analyzer Query: Latest quarterly financials for the specified company — revenue, EPS, margins, year-over-year growth, beat/miss vs estimates

Tool: search_company_events Query: Most recent earnings call transcript — key management quotes on guidance, strategy, and outlook

Present:

• Headline: "[Company] Q[X] [Year]: Revenue [beat/missed] by [X]%, EPS [beat/missed] by [X]%"
• Financial summary table: Revenue, EPS, Gross Margin, Operating Margin (actual vs estimate vs prior quarter)
• Top 3 management quotes with speaker attribution
• Guidance summary: raised / maintained / lowered vs prior quarter

STOPPING POINT

Present the earnings snapshot, then offer: "Here's the earnings snapshot with financials and key management commentary. I can:

• Analyse sentiment and red flags (tone shifts, hedging language, non-answers)
• Track strategic commentary evolution (how key themes changed vs prior quarters)
• Generate an Investment Committee summary (structured IC-ready format with conviction rating)
• Cross-reference with analyst reactions (broker research post-earnings)

Which would be most useful?"

Step 2a: Sentiment & Red Flags (if user chooses sentiment)

Tool: search_company_events Query: Full earnings transcript — analyse language patterns, hedging, qualifiers

Present:

• Sentiment score: Positive / Neutral / Cautious / Negative
• Red flags identified (if any): guidance qualifications, unusual language, topic avoidance
• Tone comparison: "Management tone was [more cautious / more confident / unchanged] vs Q[X-1]"
• Key hedging phrases: direct quotes with context

Step 2b: Strategic Commentary Evolution (if user chooses evolution)

Tool: search_company_events Query: Current AND prior quarter transcripts — compare commentary on key themes (growth strategy, margins, capital allocation, competitive position)

Tool: financial_analyzer Query: Prior quarter financials for comparison

Present:

• Theme-by-theme comparison table: [Theme] | Q[X-1] Commentary | Q[X] Commentary | Direction
• Identify narrative shifts: "Management shifted from [prior stance] to [current stance] on [topic]"
• Financial validation: "This narrative shift is [supported / contradicted] by the numbers: [evidence]"

Step 2c: Investment Committee Summary (if user chooses IC)

Synthesise all data gathered into IC-ready format:

## [Company] — Earnings Intelligence Summary
**Quarter**: Q[X] [Year] | **Recommendation Impact**: [Unchanged / Upgrade / Downgrade]

### Beat/Miss Summary
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|--------|--------|----------|----------|
| Revenue | [X] | [X] | [+/-X]% |
| EPS | [X] | [X] | [+/-X]% |

### Key Takeaways
1. [FACT] [Most important financial data point]
2. [ANALYSIS] [What the numbers imply about trajectory]
3. [INFERENCE] [What management commentary suggests about future quarters]

### Conviction Assessment
- **Bull case strengthened/weakened**: [1-sentence reason]
- **Key monitoring point**: [What to watch next quarter]

Step 2d: Analyst Reactions (if user chooses cross-reference)

Tool: search_external_docs Query: Broker research mentioning [company] published within 7 days of earnings

Present:

• Analyst reactions summary: upgrades, downgrades, target price changes
• Consensus shift: "Post-earnings consensus moved from [X] to [Y]"
• Contrarian views: any analysts with meaningfully different takes

Audience-Specific Presentation

• CIO/Board: Step 1 headline + beat/miss table + Step 2c IC summary (no stopping point, go straight to IC format)
• PM/Analyst: Full workflow with stopping point + whichever branch they choose
• Client/Prospect: Step 1 with plain language — "The company reported better-than-expected results" not "beat consensus by 3.2%"

Output Template

## Earnings Intelligence: [Company] — Q[X] [Year]

**Headline**: [Revenue/EPS beat/miss summary in one sentence]

| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Prior Q | YoY Change |
|--------|--------|----------|---------|------------|
| Revenue | [X] | [X] | [X] | [+/-X]% |
| EPS | [X] | [X] | [X] | [+/-X]% |
| Gross Margin | [X]% | — | [X]% | [+/-X]pp |

### Management Highlights
1. "[Key quote]" — [Speaker], [Title]
2. "[Key quote]" — [Speaker], [Title]

### Guidance
[Raised / Maintained / Lowered]: [specific guidance details]

### Key Insight
[ANALYSIS] [Synthesis connecting financials to management commentary]

Stopping Points

• After Step 1 (earnings snapshot): Offer 4 branching options
• After any Step 2 branch: "Would you like to explore another angle, or shall I compile everything into an IC summary?"