Stijnman Product Opportunity Tree
Purpose
Create an evidence-aware opportunity tree that connects a desired outcome to customer needs, candidate solutions, and assumption tests. Use it to avoid treating a feature idea as the problem definition.
Workflow
- Define one measurable outcome that the team can influence, including its current baseline if known.
- List customer opportunities as needs, barriers, or desired outcomes rather than proposed features.
- Attach evidence to each opportunity and label it as observed, reported, inferred, or unknown.
- Generate multiple solution options for promising opportunities; do not select a solution merely because it was proposed first.
- Identify the riskiest assumption for each selected solution and define the smallest ethical test that could reduce uncertainty.
- Prioritize the next branch using impact, confidence, effort, and evidence quality.
- Deliver a tree, evidence notes, open questions, and the next experiment.
Output format
Use a concise hierarchy: Outcome → Opportunities → Solutions → Assumption tests. Include a Mermaid diagram when it improves readability, but keep the textual hierarchy authoritative.
Quality boundaries
Do not invent research evidence, customer quotes, baselines, or business impact. Distinguish a hypothesis from a validated opportunity. Do not present the tree as a commitment or roadmap without the relevant stakeholder approval.
Error handling
| Situation | Response |
|---|---|
| Outcome is not measurable | Propose a measurable proxy and label it as a draft. |
| Evidence is sparse | Keep opportunities provisional and recommend discovery work before prioritization. |
| Solution list is already fixed | Record the constraint and identify the assumptions that still need testing. |
| Stakeholders disagree | Represent competing outcomes or assumptions rather than forcing a false consensus. |