Campfire Era

Campfire Era

For Users: How to Use This Skill

What it does

Campfire Era asks a single uncomfortable question about every holding in your portfolio: is this built for the world we're entering, or the world we just left?

The 40-year bond bull market ended. The era of falling rates, expanding PE multiples, and zero cost of capital is over. We are entering a structural inflationary regime — where hard assets, pricing power monopolies, dollar earners, and real infrastructure outperform, while long-duration paper, high-PE story stocks, and import-dependent businesses underperform.

Campfire Era scores every holding on five dimensions and produces two numbers per holding:

• IER (Inflation Era Rating) — how well this holding is structurally positioned for the new macro regime, on a 0–10 scale. A gold miner scores near 10. A long-duration bond fund scores near 0.
• ARJUN (Adaptive Real-time Judgement for Indian Underlyings and Nifty) — a second, separate score measuring how each holding performs right now, in the current Hormuz crisis environment: oil at $100+, rupee weak, FIIs selling. IER tells you if a holding is built for the decade. ARJUN tells you if it's built for this year.

Together they produce a single combined label per holding — from 🎯 CONVICTION HOLD (strong on both) to 🔴 EXIT BOTH ERAS (weak on both) — and a portfolio-level recommendation: The One Trade.

How to start

Type /campfire-era in the chat. That's it.

If you have Zerodha connected, your live holdings are pulled automatically. If not, paste your portfolio as a list — tickers, amounts, or just the top holdings. Equal weighting is assumed if you don't provide weights.

What you get

The Campfire Era Report — a single HTML file with 10 sections:

1. Scores Dashboard — Equity book, MF book, and combined IER with rating band
2. Dimension Breakdown — Hard Asset, Earnings Quality, Pricing Power, Currency Protection, New Economy Infrastructure scores with gap flags
3. Holding-by-Holding Scores — Every position scored and labelled: 🎯 CONVICTION HOLD through 🔴 EXIT BOTH ERAS
4. Inflation Era Champions — Top 3 holdings with sizing verdict
5. Era Mismatches — Bottom 3 holdings with exit/reduce actions
6. Gap Analysis — For each dimension below 6.5, specific additions with sizing
7. MF Book Deep Dive — Fund-by-fund IER with flags (locked, SEBI cap, mismatch, champion)
8. Dual Scenario — Holdings that shift 0.5+ points on a ceasefire; kill switch list
9. The Era Narrative — 5–7 sentences on what this portfolio does well, where it's exposed, and the single most important investor decision
10. The One Trade — The single highest-impact swap, with exact IER improvement quantified

Parameters you can set

Campfire Era asks four things before scoring. You can answer them upfront or let it use defaults:

Zerodha live data

Campfire Era connects to Zerodha Kite MCP for live holdings. One-time setup:

1. Open claude.ai → click your profile → Customize
2. Go to Connections or MCP Servers
3. Add: https://mcp.kite.trade/mcp
4. Authenticate with your Zerodha credentials
5. Run /campfire-era — live data activates automatically

If you don't use Zerodha

Paste your holdings directly. Any format works — a screenshot description, "COALINDIA 20%, HDFCBANK 15%...", or a CSV paste. Campfire Era will work with whatever you provide.

What it doesn't do

It doesn't execute trades, place orders, or modify your account. All scores are research tools — not SEBI-registered investment advice.

For Skill Authors: Framework Reference

Overview

Campfire Era is a macro regime portfolio scoring skill. It scores any equity or mutual fund portfolio on structural alignment with the new inflationary era (post-2020 bond bull market end), overlays a war-context ARJUN layer for Indian portfolios, and produces a 10-section report with the single most impactful trade recommendation.

Core principle: Every holding earns its place or doesn't. The IER score is unsentimental — a gold ETF outscores a long-duration bond fund regardless of what the user paid for either.

Step 0: Establish Four Parameters

Before scoring, determine:

A. Portfolio Type

• EQUITY: Individual stocks — use Step 2A
• MF: Mutual funds — use Step 2B
• COMBINED: Both — score each separately, combine at end

B. Scenario Mode

• WAR MODE (default May 2026): Hormuz closed, oil $100+, rupee ₹95+
• CEASEFIRE MODE: Hormuz reopening, oil dropping toward $85, rupee recovering
• DUAL: Show WAR and CEASEFIRE scores side by side

C. Time Horizon

• SHORT (1-2 years): Emphasise near-term earnings, war-context, kill switches
• MEDIUM (3-5 years): Balance war recovery with structural inflation era — DEFAULT
• LONG (7-10 years): Pure inflation era alignment; war noise irrelevant

D. ARJUN Integration

• ON (default for Indian portfolios): Combine ARJUN war scores with IER
• OFF: IER only

Step 1: Get the Portfolio

Kite MCP connected: Run kite:get_holdings and kite:get_positions. Extract symbol, current_value, weight%.

Manual: Accept list with optional weights. Equal-weight if not provided.

Separate equity from MF holdings. Score each book independently.

Step 2A: Score Each EQUITY Holding

Use references/scoring-tables.md for pre-scored stocks. Apply rubric below for anything not listed.

Five Dimensions

HAS — Hard Asset Score (0-10)

EQS — Earnings Quality Score (0-10)

PPS — Pricing Power Score (0-10)

CPS — Currency Protection Score (0-10)

NIS — New Economy Infrastructure Score (0-10)

IER Formula

IER = (HAS×0.25) + (EQS×0.20) + (PPS×0.20) + (CPS×0.20) + (NIS×0.15)

Step 2B: Score Each MF Holding

Use category-level IER proxies. If top holdings are available, adjust accordingly.

Special cases:

• Zerodha Silver ETF FoF: Score 8.5 — physical silver deficit, war premium
• Motilal S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100 MF: Score 7.1 — dollar hedge, AI infra, SEBI cap breached so flag as no-add
• SBI ELSS: Score 4.6 — locked, treat as illiquid, note lock-in period
• Nippon Taiwan MF: Score 7.3 — semiconductor supercycle, AI supply chain

Step 3: Apply Time Horizon Modifier

After base IER, apply adjustments:

SHORT (1-2 years)

• +1.0: Active war beneficiaries (GESHIP, MCX, Gold ETFs, Muthoot, Coal India)
• -1.0: Ceasefire rotation holds (HDFC Bank pre-deal, Maruti pre-deal)
• -0.5: Long-gestation infrastructure (HAL, POWERGRID multi-year order execution)
• Kill switch stocks = 0 regardless

MEDIUM (3-5 years) — DEFAULT

• No adjustments. Base IER applies.

LONG (7-10 years)

• +1.0: New economy infrastructure (CGPOWER, BEL, POWERGRID, VA Tech Wabag, Apollo Hospital)
• +0.5: Reinvestment compounders (MCX, Muthoot, HDFC Bank post-ceasefire)
• -1.0: War-specific thesis stocks (GESHIP drops to ~5.5 — freight normalises)
• -1.5: Structurally disrupted by AI (generic IT outsourcing)
• -1.0: Any MF with SEBI international cap breached — flag as no-add even if IER is high

Step 4: Portfolio IER Calculation

Portfolio IER = Σ (holding weight% × adjusted IER)

Calculate:

1. Equity book IER
2. MF book IER
3. Combined IER (weighted by book sizes — e.g., if equity is 37% and MF is 63% of total portfolio)

Step 5: Generate the Dashboard

IER Rating Bands

Output format

Read references/dashboard-template.md before generating any HTML. It specifies the exact design tokens, section layout, score bar colors, card styles, table formatting, and conditional rendering rules.

The output is a single self-contained HTML file: campfire-era-report.html

All 10 report sections are rendered in this file. Do not print the report as plaintext in chat.

Sections to include:

1. Scores Dashboard — hero score cards with bars and one-line verdict
2. Dimension Breakdown — five rows with 120px bars and gap flags
3. Holding-by-Holding Scores — full table sorted by IER descending
4. Inflation Era Champions — top 3 cards with green left-edge accent
5. Era Mismatches — bottom 3 cards with red left-edge accent
6. Gap Analysis — one card per dimension below 6.5; "no gaps" card otherwise
7. MF Book Deep Dive — (skip if EQUITY-only)
8. Dual Scenario — (skip if WAR or CEASEFIRE only)
9. The Era Narrative — prose card
10. The One Trade — prominent bordered card

After presenting the file, follow with a one-paragraph inline summary: combined IER, rating band, the one trade, and the most important gap dimension (if any).

Step 6: Ceasefire Adjustments (CEASEFIRE or DUAL mode)

Score Drops on Ceasefire

Score Rises on Ceasefire

Ceasefire Neutral

POWERGRID, BEL, HAL, CGPOWER, VA Tech Wabag, IT exporters, pharma exporters — structural, not war-specific.

Step 7: ARJUN Framework (Full Definition)

ARJUN = Adaptive Real-time Judgement for Indian Underlyings and Nifty

ARJUN is a war-context portfolio scoring system designed for the Iran-Hormuz crisis environment (Feb 28, 2026 onwards). It scores every Indian holding on five war-specific dimensions, each 0–10. It is separate from IER — IER measures structural inflation era alignment, ARJUN measures near-term war-context performance. Together they form the complete dual-lens framework.

ARJUN's Five Dimensions

OES — Oil Exposure Score (0 to +10, can be negative)

How does this holding benefit or suffer from oil at $107/bbl?

FDS — FII Dependency Score (0 to 10)

How much does this stock need FII capital to re-rate? Lower is better in war mode (FIIs are selling ₹2 lakh crore).

Note: FDS is inverted for ARJUN composite — a score of 0 (no FII dependence) is WAR POSITIVE.

RSS — Rupee Sensitivity Score (+10 to -10)

Does rupee at ₹96/USD help or hurt this holding?

GAS — Geopolitical Alpha Score (0 to 10)

Does India-Pak cold war, Hormuz crisis, or defence supercycle directly drive this stock's earnings?

CRS — Ceasefire Risk Score (0 to 10)

How much does this holding suffer when Hormuz reopens and oil falls to $85?

ARJUN Composite Calculation

Step 1: Convert FDS to war-positive form: FDS_WAR = 10 - FDS Step 2: Normalise OES to 0-10 scale: OES_NORM = (OES + 10) / 2 Step 3: ARJUN_COMPOSITE = (OES_NORM + FDS_WAR + RSS_NORM + GAS) / 4

Where RSS_NORM = (RSS + 10) / 2

Step 4: UNIFIED SCORE = (IER × 0.60) + (ARJUN_COMPOSITE × 0.40)

ARJUN Pre-Scored Key Holdings

Interpretation Matrix (IER × ARJUN)

Apply this matrix to every holding. The label is the single most actionable output per stock.

Step 8: India-Specific Adjustments

Always apply to Indian portfolios:

• Gold duty floor 15% = permanent +1 CPS for all gold-linked businesses
• DII ₹31,000 crore/month SIP floor = +0.3 EQS for Nifty 50 components
• Rupee at ₹96+ = +1 CPS for all dollar earners
• RBI financial repression = -1 CPS for pure rupee long-duration instruments
• SEBI $7B international MF cap breached = flag all international MF as no-add

Kill Switch Override

Flag explicitly regardless of score:

• INDIGO in war mode → IER override to 2.7, flag EXIT
• GESHIP on ceasefire → flag kill switch active
• OMCs always → uninvestable in war mode, flag explicitly
• SGBMAY28 → if present in portfolio, never sell regardless of IER; note tax-free redemption at 2028 maturity under Indian tax law — applies to any holder

Reference Files

• references/dashboard-template.md — HTML layout spec, design tokens, section-by-section rendering rules (read before generating HTML)
• references/scoring-tables.md — Pre-scored Indian and global stocks (read before scoring)
• references/era-context.md — Macro evidence base for the new inflationary era