synapseradio Follow these steps:
1. Identify the claim
Target: $ARGUMENTS, else recent assertions in the current context.
2. Name confidence explicitly
State the certainty level in concrete terms, distinguishing components if it varies:
- "Very confident (90%+), because…"
- "Moderately confident (60–80%), because…"
- "Uncertain (40–60%), due to…"
- "Low confidence (below 40%), because…"
3. Inventory the evidence
What does the confidence rest on?
- Direct experience or observation
- Documentation or authoritative sources
- Logical reasoning from established facts
- Inference or analogy
- Assumption without evidence
Assess how much is evidence-backed versus assumption.
4. Check for overconfidence
Definitive statements on limited data; uncertainty suppressed to sound authoritative; "obviously" / "clearly" without demonstration.
5. Check for underconfidence
Good evidence discounted; hedging from habit rather than need; excessive qualification of well-supported claims.
6. Test calibration
What odds would you accept betting on this? What evidence would change the level? Does past track record suggest over- or underconfidence?
7. Communicate uncertainty
Express confidence in proportion to evidence. Distinguish personal ignorance from collective uncertainty. Show where certainty ends and speculation begins.