Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,
forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the
implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-security
before granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,
customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated
decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a
threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
Source: affaan-m/ECC → skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md
1---2name: prediction-market-oracle-research3description: Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.4---5# Prediction Market Oracle Research
6
7Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,
8forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
9
10## Guardrails
11
12- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
13- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
14- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the
15 implied signal.
16- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
17- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run `llm-trading-agent-security`
18 before granting any write authority.
19
20## Research Workflow
21
221. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
232. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
243. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
254. Evaluate signal quality:
26 - liquidity
27 - spread
28 - market age
29 - trader/incentive concentration if known
30 - resolution authority
31 - geography or account restrictions
325. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,
33 customer data, or internal KPIs.
346. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated
35 decision.
36
37## Integration Patterns
38
39- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
40- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
41- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
42- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a
43 threshold.
44- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
45
46## Output Contract
47
48Use:
49
501. decision context
512. market sources
523. signal quality
534. comparison sources
545. integration recommendation
556. caveats
56
57End with:
58
59```text
60Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
61```
62
63---
64
65**Source:** [`affaan-m/ECC`](https://github.com/affaan-m/ECC) → `skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md`
thedixitjain