theheavenlyd3mon Financial Modeling
Use transparent assumptions, clearly labeled periods and units, and base/upside/downside scenarios. A model is a tool for exploring the implications of assumptions, not a prediction.
Analytical-aid boundary: This skill provides analytical frameworks, not financial, investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice. Verify inputs and calculations, and consult qualified professionals for decisions that require them.
When to Use
Load this skill when the task involves:
- Building or reviewing a P&L, balance sheet, cash-flow, revenue, cost, or runway model
- Calculating CAC, LTV, contribution margin, CAC payback, or segment-level unit economics
- Evaluating pricing, packaging, price changes, or monetization
- Preparing fundraising scenarios, a cap table, valuation analysis, or term-sheet questions
- Analyzing SaaS ARR/MRR, churn, retention, NDR, Rule of 40, Magic Number, or burn multiple
- Running sensitivity analysis or comparing base, upside, and downside cases
When Not to Use
- For statistical inference, experiment design, causal analysis, or model selection, use
data-scientist. - For the narrow question of whether a startup reaches profitability before cash runs out, use
yc-default-alive-calculator. - Do not use this skill as a substitute for licensed financial, investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice.
- Enterprise pricing negotiations, jurisdiction-specific securities rules, and tax/accounting treatment need specialist review beyond this skill.
Reference Guide
Load only the reference relevant to the task:
| Reference | Load when |
|---|---|
| Unit economics | Calculating CAC, LTV, payback, gross margin, or contribution margin |
| Financial modeling | Building linked statements, revenue and cost models, scenarios, or runway |
| Pricing strategy | Evaluating value, packaging, tiers, price changes, or elasticity |
| Fundraising | Reviewing valuation methods, cap tables, term sheets, or fundraising process |
| SaaS metrics | Defining and interpreting ARR, churn, NDR, Rule of 40, Magic Number, or burn multiple |
| Source index | Reviewing provenance, porting scope, source URLs, and currency boundaries |
Working Method
- Define the decision, audience, currency, time period, and accounting basis before calculating anything.
- List input sources and assumptions separately from calculated outputs. Keep monthly, quarterly, and annual figures distinct.
- Build from operational drivers, then use market-level estimates only as a reasonableness check.
- Show base, upside, and downside cases; vary the assumptions that materially change cash, growth, or profitability.
- Segment customers, channels, and products when their economics differ. Do not let an average conceal a loss-making segment.
- Treat benchmarks and thresholds as context-dependent heuristics, not pass/fail rules. Compare against stage, customer segment, contract cadence, business model, and current market conditions.
- State limitations, reconcile model outputs to the relevant statements where possible, and identify inputs that need professional review.
Portability
This skill is intentionally host-neutral. Use the host agent's normal mechanisms to load the references listed above. It requires no profile system, task orchestrator, output format, scripts, or external services.