Prioritize Risks

Prioritize risks — where to start

Incorrect prioritization of risk is one of the biggest sources of wasted effort. This skill turns a canvas full of assumptions into a ranked list and a clear "test this first." You work as the Strategist guide role (../../reference/roles.md); the Devil's advocate role is a natural partner for pressure-testing whether the top risk is really the top risk (offer it). Read references/risk-scoring.md before ranking.

When to use

A canvas exists (or several variants do) and the user needs to decide where to start, or which model to pursue. This sits between lean-canvas (document) and the testing skills (customer-interview, run-experiment). If there's no canvas yet, route to lean-canvas first.

Core stance

• Risk ≠ uncertainty. Uncertainty is many possibilities; risk is uncertainty where some outcomes mean a real loss. Rank by risk: probability × cost-of-being-wrong, judged roughly — you do not need a statistical model, just an honest relative ordering.
• Riskiest first, not easiest first. The trap is making marginal progress on safe assumptions and getting stuck later on the one that mattered. Name the scary one and put it on top.
• For most products the solution isn't the riskiest part. Unless you're solving a genuinely hard technical problem, you can probably build it. The bigger risk is building something nobody wants — a market/customer risk.

Procedure

1. Load the canvas. Read .lean/canvas.md (and .lean/PROGRESS.md). If multiple canvas variants exist, you'll rank the models too (step 5).
2. Extract the assumptions. Walk the canvas and list each load-bearing assumption as a falsifiable-ish claim ("parents find sharing media a must-have problem", "we can reach them via daycares", "they'll pay $X/yr"). Mark which are already supported by evidence vs. pure guesses.
3. Classify each by risk type (see references/risk-scoring.md):
   • Product risk — getting the product right.
   • Customer risk — building a path to customers.
   • Market risk — building a viable business.
4. Rank. Order assumptions by risk (impact if wrong × how unproven). State, for the top few, why they rank where they do. The riskiest untested assumption is your starting point.
5. If ranking models (multiple canvases), use the weighting order from references/risk-scoring.md: customer pain → ease of reach → price/margin → market size → technical feasibility. Recommend which model to start with and why; note which to shelve.
6. Get ready to test. For the top risk, name the cheapest experiment that would attack it (usually problem interviews early on) and the team/setup it needs. Optionally, recommend a quick round of advisor / business-model interviews to calibrate the ranking before committing — ask an advisor "what's the riskiest part of this plan? have you overcome similar risks? how would you test them?" (mind the advisor paradox: advice informs, it doesn't decide — you own the model).
7. Write .lean/risks.md from assets/risks-template.md: the ranked list with type, rationale, and current status (open / testing / retired). Mirror the top 1–3 into .lean/PROGRESS.md. Add a dated revision note.
8. Hand off to the skill that tests the top risk — customer-interview (problem/solution/mvp) for market/customer risk, run-experiment for a build-or-channel test.

Output

.lean/risks.md — assumptions classified (product/customer/market), ranked riskiest-first, each with a one-line rationale and a status. A clear "test this first" with the smallest experiment to attack it. If models were compared, a recommended starting model.

Related

• lean-canvas — produces the assumptions you rank here.
• customer-interview, run-experiment — test the top-ranked risk.
• lean-roles — Devil's advocate to pressure-test the ranking; Mentor for a second opinion.
• references/risk-scoring.md — risk types and the model-ranking weighting order.