Market Sizing

Size a startup's market credibly, top-down and bottom-up, and pressure-test the story.

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Market Sizing

Judge whether a startup's market is big enough and real — sized two ways and tested against the pitch.

When to use

  • A deal's market claim needs standing up in diligence.
  • A founder's TAM looks too clean to trust.

Steps

  1. Define the market the company actually serves, not the adjacent dream.
  2. Size it top-down from credible aggregates.
  3. Size it bottom-up from customers × price × frequency.
  4. Reconcile the two and explain the gap.
  5. Test the growth story against real drivers.

Output

A sized market with both methods reconciled and the growth story assessed, following the [[Investment thesis]]. Feeds the diligence and the memo.

tinyhumansai/opencompany/tree/main/companies/venture_capital/skills/market-sizing commit 26b9bde6ea

Frequently asked questions

npx skillmds@latest add tinyhumansai/market-sizing