tomevault-io Market Regimes
Last updated: 2026-01-17 20:31 UTC Active patterns: 32 Total samples: 0 Confidence threshold: 60%
How to Use This Skill
- Identify the current market regime using price action and volatility
- Look up the recommended strategy for that regime below
- Adjust your trading approach accordingly
- Monitor for regime changes
Regime Strategies
Mixed Choppy
Recommended approach (93% confidence, seen 1x):
Reduce or eliminate trading. In mixed markets (BNB +0.93%, SOL +1.65%, BTC -0.08%, ETH -0.03%, DOGE -1.19%), zero-trade strategies ($0 PnL) outperformed all active traders (all negative PnL). Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance: 0 trades = $0, 2 trades = -$0.29, 160 trades = -$17.96, 201 trades = -$360.24.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (93% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero trading or extremely low frequency (<25 trades/24h). Market showed BNB +2.03%, ETH +1.02%, DOGE +1.07%, BTC +0.24% but all active traders lost money. Only non-traders preserved capital. If trading, long-only on strongest performers (BNB).
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (92% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero trading or very low frequency (<30 trades/24h) with long-only bias. Market up +0.63% to +2.15% across all assets - passive strategies outperformed all active traders. Only skill_only_oss with 89 trades and selective longs achieved positive PnL.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (90% confidence, seen 1x):
Avoid shorting entirely. All short-biased strategies lost money despite 'bearish' technical signals. Technical indicators gave false bearish readings in a bullish regime.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (90% confidence, seen 1x):
Avoid shorting entirely. skill_aware_oss lost $-167.78 with 171 trades including BTCUSDT shorts despite 'bearish alignment' signals. Market direction trumps technical signals.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bearish
Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):
Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance: 0-10 trades = $0 to -$30 loss; 76-103 trades = -$44 to -$180 loss. Optimal is <20 trades or pure capital preservation.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-16
Mixed Choppy
Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):
Technical analysis signals (multi-timeframe alignment, MACD, SMA crossovers) generate false signals in mixed markets. Both bullish and bearish aligned trades lost money.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection critical: BNB (+2.03%) significantly outperformed SOL (-0.09%). Agents focusing on SOL longs (llama4_scout) lost heavily despite 'uptrend' reasoning.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bearish
Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):
Reduce trade frequency dramatically or avoid trading entirely. Zero-trade strategies ($0 PnL) outperformed active trading strategies (avg -$66 PnL). Only agentic_gptoss profited by actively managing shorts and closing positions to lock gains.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-16
Mixed Choppy
Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):
If trading, prefer assets showing clear directional movement (SOL +1.65%, BNB +0.93%) over flat assets (BTC -0.08%, ETH -0.03%). Avoid shorting in mixed regimes even with bearish technical signals.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection: BNB (+2.15%) significantly outperformed BTC (+0.63%). Long positions in higher-beta assets would have captured more upside.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):
Technical analysis signals (multi-timeframe alignment, MACD, RSI) are unreliable for direction. Both bullish and bearish technical signals led to losses.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-17
Moderate Bearish
Recommended approach (82% confidence, seen 1x):
Short positions with active profit-taking outperform long positions. agentic_gptoss (+$34.30) succeeded by opening shorts and closing when 'position is already in profit' rather than holding.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-16
Moderate Bearish
Recommended approach (80% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters: DOGE (-3%) showed highest volatility/decline, making it best short target. BNB (-0.61%) showed relative strength, making it worst short target.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-16
Trending Up
Recommended approach (74% confidence, seen 2x):
Active trading with 120-200 trades/24h, multi-timeframe bullish alignment WITH explicit risk validation (2% equity, 2:1 R:R), proactive position management closing losers quickly. skill_aware_oss achieved +$1236.81 with this approach in +2.5% to +6.2% market
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (72% confidence, seen 1x):
Optimal trade frequency 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities (ta_baseline -$25.88), above 240 leads to overtrading losses (llama4_scout -$18.95)
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (70% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss +3-6% opportunity. Active validated trading (skill_aware_oss +$1236.81) dramatically outperforms passive approaches
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (70% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters: ETH (+6.16%) significantly outperformed BTC (+3.99%) and BNB (+2.54%). Agents focusing on higher-beta assets (ETH, DOGE) captured more upside
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (68% confidence, seen 1x):
Active trading with 120-200 trades/24h, multi-timeframe bullish alignment, explicit risk validation (2% risk, 2:1 reward), and proactive position management. skill_aware_oss (+$1379.66) and agentic_gptoss (+$689.63) demonstrate this approach works when market is up 2.78-6.44% across all assets.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (68% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters: ETH (+6.16%) outperformed BTC (+3.99%) and SOL (+2.88%) - agents focusing on highest momentum assets captured more gains
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (68% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss +3-6% opportunity cost. In confirmed bull markets, active participation with risk controls outperforms passive approaches
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (65% confidence, seen 1x):
Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position with active monitoring and willingness to close at breakeven to redeploy capital (gptoss_20b_simple: +$27.88 with 125 trades)
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (63% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters in bull markets: ETH (+6.44%) outperformed BTC (+4.14%) and SOL (+2.94%). Agents focusing on strongest performers (ETH, DOGE at +5.52%) captured more upside.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (60% confidence, seen 1x):
Multi-timeframe bullish alignment WITH risk validation and position scaling works in genuine uptrends (+3-5%). Moderate trade frequency (150-200) captures moves without overtrading. Focus on strongest movers (ETH, DOGE) not laggards (SOL).
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (60% confidence, seen 1x):
Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position (gptoss_20b_simple reasoning) allows meaningful exposure while maintaining diversification. gptoss_20b_simple achieved +$27.88 with 124 trades using this approach.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (58% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters: ETH (+4.96%) and DOGE (+4.77%) outperformed. Agents focusing on BTC (+3.14%) and SOL (+1.55%) captured less alpha.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (57% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss opportunity cost. In this window with +2.78% to +6.44% gains, passive strategies underperformed active risk-managed approaches by significant margin.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Trending Up
Recommended approach (55% confidence, seen 1x):
Active loss management - closing losing positions quickly to free margin for winners. agentic_gptoss and gptoss_120b_simple both used this successfully.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Sideways Flat
Recommended approach (52% confidence, seen 1x):
Reduce trade frequency to <10 trades/day; passive index allocation outperforms active trading; avoid leveraged positions entirely; wait for clear directional breakout before engaging
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-13
Moderate Bull
Recommended approach (50% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero-trade strategies (gpt_simple, index_fund) preserve capital but miss +3-5% opportunities. In confirmed uptrends, some participation is optimal.
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-14
Low Volatility Mixed
Recommended approach (48% confidence, seen 1x):
When all assets show <0.1% absolute movement, avoid opening new positions; fee drag exceeds potential profit; technical signals (SMA, MACD, multi-timeframe alignment) produce false signals in this regime
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-13
Sideways Flat
Recommended approach (45% confidence, seen 1x):
Mean-reversion and momentum strategies both fail; only capital preservation strategies (hold cash, minimal index allocation) succeed
- Total observations: 0
- First identified: 2026-01-13
Confidence Guide
| Confidence | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 90%+ | High confidence - strong historical support |
| 70-90% | Moderate confidence - use with other signals |
| 60-70% | Low confidence - consider as one input |
| <60% | Experimental - needs more data |
This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.
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