Polymarket Copytrading

Polymarket Copytrading

Mirror positions from successful Polymarket traders using the Simmer SDK.

This is a template. The default logic mirrors whale wallets by size-weighted allocation — remix it with your own wallet selection criteria, position filters, or rebalancing rules. The skill handles all the plumbing (wallet fetching, conflict detection, trade execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

• Copytrade whale wallets on Polymarket
• Paper trade (copytrade with $SIM) to test strategies without real money
• Check what positions a wallet holds
• Follow specific trader addresses
• Check their copytrading positions

Quick Commands

# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py

# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
• Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Finding Whale Wallets

• predicting.top — Leaderboard of top Polymarket traders with wallet addresses
• alphawhale.trade — Tools for copying and tracking top performers
• Polymarket Leaderboard — Official rankings (requires account)

Quick Start (Ad-Hoc Usage)

User provides wallet(s) directly in chat:

User: "Copytrade this wallet: 0x1234...abcd"
User: "What positions does 0x5678...efgh have?"
User: "Follow these whales: 0xaaa..., 0xbbb..."

→ Run with --wallets flag:

python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x1234...abcd
python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0xaaa...,0xbbb... --dry-run

This is the simplest way - no setup needed, just pass wallets directly.

Persistent Setup (Optional)

For automated recurring scans, wallets can be saved in environment:

Top N auto-calculation (when not specified):

• Balance < $50: Top 5 positions
• Balance $50-200: Top 10 positions
• Balance $200-500: Top 25 positions
• Balance $500+: Top 50 positions

Polymarket Constraints:

• Minimum 5 shares per order
• SDK enforces $1.00 minimum position value (filters dust positions)

⚠️ Start Conservative: Begin with small amounts (--max-usd 5-10) and --dry-run to understand how the skill behaves before scaling up.

How It Works

By default, only buys execute. Pass --rebalance to also sell positions the whales have exited, or --whale-exits to sell only on whale exits.

Each cycle the script:

1. Fetches positions from all target wallets via Simmer API
2. Combines using size-weighted aggregation (larger wallets = more influence)
3. Detects conflicts (one wallet long YES, another long NO) and skips those markets
4. Scores by conviction: positions held by 2+ wallets get full sizing, single-wallet positions get 50% sizing
5. Filters out drifted (>30% from entry) and stale (>90% or <10% price) positions
6. Applies Top-N filtering to concentrate on highest-conviction positions
7. Auto-imports missing markets from Polymarket
8. Calculates rebalance trades to match target allocations
9. Executes trades via Simmer SDK (respects spending limits)
10. Reports results back to user

$SIM Paper Trading

Copytrading supports $SIM mode — mirror whale positions using simulated money on Simmer's LMSR markets. No wallet or USDC required.

# Paper trade with $SIM (explicit)
python copytrading_trader.py --venue sim --wallets 0x123... --live

# Auto-detect: if your account has no linked wallet, $SIM is used automatically
python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x123... --live

In $SIM mode:

• Trades execute on Simmer's LMSR at real Polymarket prices
• Each market gets an independent $10K $SIM balance
• Positions tracked in your Simmer portfolio (source: sdk:copytrading)
• Whale signals still come from real Polymarket data

Running the Skill

Run a scan (dry run by default — no trades):

python copytrading_trader.py

Execute real trades:

python copytrading_trader.py --live

Check positions only:

python copytrading_trader.py --positions

View current config:

python copytrading_trader.py --config

Override wallets for one run:

python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x123...,0x456...

Full rebalance mode (includes sells):

python copytrading_trader.py --rebalance

Sell when whales exit positions:

python copytrading_trader.py --whale-exits

Reporting Results

After each run, message the user with:

• Current configuration (wallets, Top N, max position)
• Number of wallets fetched and total positions found
• Markets skipped due to conflicts
• Trades executed (or skipped with reason)
• Current portfolio positions

Example output to share:

🐋 Copytrading Scan Complete

Configuration:
• Following 2 wallets
• Top 10 positions, max $50 each
• Balance: $250.00 USDC

Fetched positions:
• 0x1234...abcd: 15 positions
• 0x5678...efgh: 22 positions
• Combined: 28 unique markets
• Conflicts skipped: 2

Top 10 by allocation:
1. "Will BTC hit $100k?" - 18.5% → BUY YES
2. "Trump pardons X?" - 12.3% → BUY NO
3. "Fed rate cut Jan?" - 9.8% → Already held
...

Trades executed: 4 buys ($180 total)
• Bought 45 YES shares on "Will BTC hit $100k?" @ $0.82
• Bought 120 NO shares on "Trump pardons X?" @ $0.15
...

Next scan in 4 hours.

Example Conversations

User: "Copytrade 0x1234...abcd" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x1234...abcd → Report what positions that wallet has and what trades would execute

User: "What is 0x5678...efgh holding?" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x5678...efgh --dry-run → Show their positions without trading

User: "Follow these wallets: 0xaaa..., 0xbbb..., 0xccc..." → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0xaaa...,0xbbb...,0xccc... → Aggregate positions across all wallets, report results

User: "Copytrade this whale but only top 5 positions" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x... --top-n 5

User: "How are my positions doing?" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --positions → Show current Polymarket positions with P&L

User: "Show copytrading config" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --config → Display current settings

User: "Sell positions that whales have exited" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --whale-exits → Compares your positions to whales, sells any they've closed

User: "Do a full rebalance to match the whales" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --rebalance → Includes both buys AND sells to match whale allocations

Finding Good Wallets to Follow

Common approaches:

1. Leaderboard tracking: Check Polymarket leaderboards for consistent performers
2. Whale watchers: Follow known profitable traders on social media
3. Specific strategies: Follow wallets known for weather, politics, or crypto trades

The skill works best when:

• Following 2-5 wallets with overlapping strategies (e.g. all politics-focused, or all crypto-focused)
• Wallets have similar conviction — mixing very different traders means most positions only appear in one wallet and get reduced sizing (50%)
• Wallets trade markets available on Polymarket

Conviction Tiers

When following multiple wallets, positions are scored by conviction:

• High conviction (held by 2+ wallets): full position sizing (max_usd)
• Low conviction (held by 1 wallet): 50% position sizing

High-conviction positions are prioritized in Top N selection. Single-wallet positions still trade, but with reduced size. Using just 1 wallet disables conviction scoring (all positions get full sizing).

Troubleshooting

"Order too small" / "below minimum (5)"

• Polymarket requires minimum 5 shares per order
• Increase --max-usd or reduce --top-n to concentrate into fewer positions

"No wallets specified"

• Provide wallet addresses in your message, e.g., "copytrade 0x1234..."
• Or set SIMMER_COPYTRADING_WALLETS environment variable for recurring scans

"Agent has no USDC balance"

• Need USDC in your Polymarket wallet, or use --venue sim for $SIM paper trading
• Check wallet is linked at simmer.markets/dashboard

"Conflict skipped"

• Wallets disagree on this market (one long YES, other long NO)
• Markets with net position < 10% are skipped

"All N positions filtered (X conflicts, Y drifted, Z stale)"

• All whale positions were removed by safety filters
• Try different target wallets, or reduce to 1 wallet to disable conviction scoring
• Drift filter skips positions where price moved >30% from whale's entry
• Stale filter skips near-resolved markets (price >90% or <10%)

"Insufficient balance"

• Not enough USDC for all trades
• Reduce SIMMER_COPYTRADING_TOP_N or SIMMER_COPYTRADING_MAX_USD

"Market could not be imported"

• Some markets may not be importable (resolved, private, etc.)
• These are skipped automatically

"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment
• The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed
• Fix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>
• Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it

"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon"

• Polymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174) — not native USDC
• If you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC
• Swap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry

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