Idea Shortlist Curator

Idea Shortlist Curator (select → evaluate → subset → fuse)

Goal: turn a large Idea Pool into a small, research-grade shortlist that is:

• feasible under constraints,
• novelty is expressed as delta vs closest prior work,
• falsifiable (clear failure criteria),
• portfolio-diverse.

This skill rewrites output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md by:

• keeping the Pool section,
• adding/replacing the "Final Shortlist" section.

Inputs

• output/IDEA_BRIEF.md
• output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md (must contain the Idea Pool)
• outline/taxonomy.yml
• papers/paper_notes.jsonl
• papers/core_set.csv

Outputs

• output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md

Rubric (weights come from the brief)

Score candidates on:

• novelty_delta (vs closest-3)
• feasibility (fits constraints)
• evidence_density / traceability
• consistency (task/eval definitions don't conflict)
• writeability (can be written into a coherent paper/report)
• portfolio_diversity (cluster coverage + idea type coverage)

Shortlist card contract (per idea)

Each shortlisted idea must include:

• Problem (1-2 sentences; testable)
• Closest-3 (3 paper_id pointers from papers/core_set.csv)
• Delta (2-4 bullets)
• Non-Delta (1-2 bullets; what is NOT actually new)
• Minimal validation plan (1 week): task + metric + baseline + resources + expected signal
• Failure criteria (what result kills it)
• Risks / failure modes (>=2)
• Evidence anchors: >=3 core paper pointers total

Portfolio constraints:

• cover >=2-3 clusters from outline/taxonomy.yml
• cover >=2 idea types (e.g., eval/protocol vs mechanism vs system constraint)
• at most 1 item may be labeled "needs verification" (and it must say what evidence is missing)

Procedure

1. Read constraints + rubric weights from output/IDEA_BRIEF.md

• If constraints are missing, add a blocking question to DECISIONS.md (do not pretend).

2. Parse the Idea Pool from output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md

• Discard candidates that violate exclusions.
• De-duplicate near-identical ideas (keep the best phrasing).

3. Build evidence anchors using papers/paper_notes.jsonl + papers/core_set.csv

• For each candidate, attach 1-3 plausible paper pointers.
• Prefer pointers that directly relate to the candidate's failure mode / protocol gap.

4. Propose 2-3 shortlist compositions internally

• Composition A: feasibility-heavy
• Composition B: novelty-heavy
• Composition C: portfolio-diverse

5. Select the best composition and fuse overlaps

• If two shortlisted ideas overlap, keep one and merge the strongest parts.

6. Write "Final Shortlist" into output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md

• Size default: 7 (or follow idea_shortlist_size in the brief)
• For each idea, write the full card contract (closest-3/delta/validation/failure/risks/anchors).

7. Add a short "Selection Rationale" section

• Why these ideas (top 3 reasons)
• Top 5 excluded high-scoring ideas and why they were excluded (e.g., infeasible, duplicate, weak evidence)

Acceptance

• output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md contains a Final Shortlist (5-7; default 7).
• Every shortlisted idea satisfies the card contract and points to papers/core_set.csv paper_ids.
• Portfolio constraints are satisfied (>=2-3 clusters; >=2 idea types).

Troubleshooting

Issue: shortlist is too wild / not doable

Fix:

• Tighten feasibility weight in the brief and rerun.
• Replace the item with the best next candidate from the same cluster.

Issue: novelty is hand-wavy

Fix:

• Enforce closest-3 + delta/non-delta.
• If you can't name closest prior work from papers/core_set.csv, mark the idea as "needs verification" and keep it out of the shortlist.