Sector rotation — what's moving and where money is going
Rotation between sectors is often a clearer trend than anything inside a single
value chain. This is the right-side read most real (medium/short-term) trading
runs on — and the thing you'll open most often. The point is not a gainers
list; it's "where is money rotating, on what timeframe, and does it hold
together."
Procedure (don't answer from memory — go to the data)
The data is on your CLIs: traderhub board / traderhub etf for sector & theme
performance, alice analysis quant for momentum across timeframes and breadth.
Choose news sources to suit the question. (See the traderhub, alice-analysis
skills.)
- Rank the field across timeframes. Look at sector/theme performance and
momentum over long, medium, and short windows. The signal isn't any single
window — it's how they line up:
- long up + short up → established uptrend (real, but maybe late)
- long up + short down → pullback in an uptrend (buy-the-dip, not a top)
- long down + short up → a bounce or early rotation-in — decide which
- long down + short down → downtrend (avoid, or watch for capitulation)
- Map the rotation, not just the levels. Rotation is a FROM → TO: money
leaving sectors that were strong and are now breaking, going into ones
turning up. Name both ends. A one-day pop with nothing behind it is noise,
not rotation.
- Confirm or doubt it. A rotation is trustworthy when timeframes, market
breadth (what's leading vs lagging beneath the index), and the news narrative
point the same way. When only the shortest timeframe moves, distrust it.
- Overlay the macro regime. Rotations make sense inside a regime — risk-on
vs risk-off, rates up vs down, early vs late cycle. Tie what you see to the
macro picture: does the rotation fit a coherent story, or is it noise? A
rotation that contradicts the regime is either early (valuable) or wrong.
- Hand off the standouts. For each surging/crashing sector worth a look,
give a one-line read and the next move — usually "decompose this one"
(the
scan-value-chain skill) to find the names carrying the move.
Output — persist a dated snapshot
Rotation is about change over time, so write a dated snapshot
(rotation/<date>.md, or whatever layout the user agrees) rather than
overwriting one file. The latest snapshot is the current read; the series is the
rotation itself — next session diffs against the last one ("what changed since
Tuesday"). Don't impose a layout; settle it with the user, then CRUD the series.
Worked example (schematic — illustrates the read, NOT the current tape)
Run this live; the tape moves daily. The shape to produce:
| sector |
long |
mid |
short |
read |
| A |
strong |
strong |
pulling back |
buy-the-dip in an uptrend — not a top |
| B |
weak |
turning up |
surging |
early rotation-in if breadth + news confirm; else a dead-cat bounce |
| C |
strong |
rolling over |
down |
distribution — money leaving; a FROM end |
| D |
weak |
weak |
down |
downtrend, no read |
Rotation call: money rotating C → B (out of the rolling-over leader into the
turning-up laggard). Confirm: is B's strength broad (many names) or one
ticker? does the news support a reason? Regime fit: does C → B match the
macro regime (e.g. a rates move favoring B's profile), or is it a head-fake?
Hand off: B looks like the live thread → decompose B's value chain next to
find which names carry it.
1---2name: sector-rotation3description: Read what's moving across the whole market right now — which sectors are surging vs crashing, and where capital is rotating between them, across long / medium / short timeframes. The right-side, top-of-funnel "what is the market actually doing" read. Use when the user has no specific target and wants the lay of the land: "what's hot right now", "what sectors are surging / crashing", "where is money rotating", "what's leading and lagging", "is this risk-on or risk-off", "what should I be looking at this week", "show me the rotation map". Hands the standout movers off to a value-chain scan to dig into.4---56# Sector rotation — what's moving and where money is going78Rotation between sectors is often a clearer trend than anything inside a single9value chain. This is the right-side read most real (medium/short-term) trading10runs on — and the thing you'll open most often. The point is not a gainers11list; it's "where is money rotating, on what timeframe, and does it hold12together."1314## Procedure (don't answer from memory — go to the data)1516The data is on your CLIs: `traderhub board` / `traderhub etf` for sector & theme17performance, `alice analysis quant` for momentum across timeframes and breadth.18Choose news sources to suit the question. (See the `traderhub`, `alice-analysis`19skills.)20211. **Rank the field across timeframes.** Look at sector/theme performance and22 momentum over long, medium, and short windows. The signal isn't any single23 window — it's how they line up:24 - long up + short up → established uptrend (real, but maybe late)25 - long up + short down → pullback in an uptrend (buy-the-dip, not a top)26 - long down + short up → a bounce or early rotation-in — decide which27 - long down + short down → downtrend (avoid, or watch for capitulation)282. **Map the rotation, not just the levels.** Rotation is a FROM → TO: money29 leaving sectors that were strong and are now breaking, going into ones30 turning up. Name both ends. A one-day pop with nothing behind it is noise,31 not rotation.323. **Confirm or doubt it.** A rotation is trustworthy when timeframes, market33 breadth (what's leading vs lagging beneath the index), and the news narrative34 point the same way. When only the shortest timeframe moves, distrust it.354. **Overlay the macro regime.** Rotations make sense inside a regime — risk-on36 vs risk-off, rates up vs down, early vs late cycle. Tie what you see to the37 macro picture: does the rotation fit a coherent story, or is it noise? A38 rotation that contradicts the regime is either early (valuable) or wrong.395. **Hand off the standouts.** For each surging/crashing sector worth a look,40 give a one-line read and the next move — usually "decompose this one"41 (the `scan-value-chain` skill) to find the names carrying the move.4243## Output — persist a dated snapshot4445Rotation is about change over time, so write a **dated** snapshot46(`rotation/<date>.md`, or whatever layout the user agrees) rather than47overwriting one file. The latest snapshot is the current read; the series is the48rotation itself — next session diffs against the last one ("what changed since49Tuesday"). Don't impose a layout; settle it with the user, then CRUD the series.5051## Worked example (schematic — illustrates the read, NOT the current tape)5253Run this live; the tape moves daily. The shape to produce:5455| sector | long | mid | short | read |56|---|---|---|---|---|57| A | strong | strong | pulling back | buy-the-dip in an uptrend — not a top |58| B | weak | turning up | surging | early rotation-in **if** breadth + news confirm; else a dead-cat bounce |59| C | strong | rolling over | down | distribution — money leaving; a FROM end |60| D | weak | weak | down | downtrend, no read |6162**Rotation call:** money rotating C → B (out of the rolling-over leader into the63turning-up laggard). **Confirm:** is B's strength broad (many names) or one64ticker? does the news support a reason? **Regime fit:** does C → B match the65macro regime (e.g. a rates move favoring B's profile), or is it a head-fake?66**Hand off:** B looks like the live thread → decompose B's value chain next to67find which names carry it.
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