ur-grue Polling Analysis Writer
What This Skill Does
Analyses poll or survey results and writes a clear, accurate, publication-ready explanation for a general audience — covering the headline finding, key subgroup breakdowns, methodology caveats, and what the numbers do and do not mean.
When To Use This Skill
- A polling firm or research organisation has released survey results and you need to write them up quickly and accurately
- You want to check your draft poll write-up for errors in interpretation (particularly subgroup misuse)
- You have multiple polls on the same question and need to contextualise the latest against previous findings
- An editor needs a plain-language explainer of a complex survey methodology to accompany a polling story
What You Need To Provide
Required: The poll results — key headline figures, subgroup figures if relevant, sample size, fieldwork dates, and polling organisation. The question(s) asked, verbatim if possible. Optional: Previous poll figures on the same question; the commission source (who paid for the poll); the publication's audience register.
How the Assistant Approaches This
- Reviews the results for the five most common polling reporting errors: cherry-picking subgroups, ignoring margin of error, treating non-significant differences as meaningful, misrepresenting question wording, and omitting who commissioned the poll.
- Writes a plain-language summary that leads with the headline finding and places it in context — comparison to previous polls, margin of error, and any relevant methodology caveats.
- Flags any result in the data that appears to be a subgroup finding and warns if the subsample is too small to report reliably.
Output Format
A structured analysis document in three parts: (1) Headline summary — two to four sentences suitable for use as the opening of a news article. (2) Key findings — bullet list of three to six findings, each with the figure and a one-line plain-language gloss. (3) Methodology and caveats — two to five sentences on sample size, margin of error, fieldwork dates, question wording issues, and commissioning source. Readability target: accessible to any adult reader. No statistical jargon without immediate plain-language explanation.
Quality Criteria
- Headline summary leads with the most newsworthy finding, not the most flattering one for any party
- Margin of error is stated and applied correctly to at least the headline figure
- Any subgroup figure below n=100 is flagged as unreliable
- Question wording is reproduced or summarised accurately
- Commissioning source is disclosed if known
- No difference between two figures is described as meaningful unless it exceeds the margin of error
Example
Input
Poll results: A survey of 1,847 registered voters conducted online over three days (12–14 March 2026) by Meridian Research on behalf of a national newspaper. Question asked: "If a general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" Results: Party A 38%, Party B 31%, Party C 18%, Other/Don't know/Wouldn't vote 13%. Subgroup: Among 18–24 year olds (n=203): Party A 29%, Party B 24%, Party C 34%. Previous poll (same pollster, January 2026): Party A 36%, Party B 33%, Party C 17%.
Output
Headline Summary
A new poll puts Party A on 38% of the vote, its highest recorded figure with this pollster, with Party B at 31% and Party C at 18%. The seven-point lead for Party A over Party B has widened slightly since January, when the gap was three points — though both changes are within the poll's margin of error of approximately two to three percentage points.
Key Findings
- Party A: 38% — Up two points since January. Lead over Party B has grown, but the shift is at the margin-of-error boundary and should not be treated as definitive movement.
- Party B: 31% — Down two points since January. Back to levels last seen in late 2025.
- Party C: 18% — Up one point. Consistent with its recent polling range of 16–19%.
- Young voters (18–24): Party C leads at 34% — The most notable subgroup finding. Party C outpolls both major parties among this age group. Treat with some caution: subsample of 203 respondents carries a higher margin of error of around ±7 points.
- 13% undecided or would not vote — A substantial pool. Movement in this group could shift headline figures significantly at an election.
Methodology and Caveats
The poll was conducted online with 1,847 registered voters between 12–14 March 2026 by Meridian Research, commissioned by the newspaper. Online panels tend to over-represent more politically engaged voters; results are weighted by age, gender, and region but not by past vote. The question asked about a "general election held tomorrow" — a hypothetical scenario that may not reflect actual turnout behaviour. The poll was commissioned by a publication with a declared editorial position; readers should bear this in mind when assessing news coverage of the results.
Known Limitations
- This skill cannot assess whether the polling firm's weighting methodology is sound — that requires access to full methodology tables, which are often published separately. Always check the tables before writing up subgroup findings.
- The skill works from the figures provided. If the pollster has suppressed unfavourable subgroups or released only selected cross-tabs, the analysis will reflect only what was shared.
- International polling conventions vary. Margin-of-error guidance in this skill assumes a standard simple random sampling formula; complex weighted designs may have different effective sample sizes.