Decision Engine
Apply four analytical frameworks to any product decision, then synthesize into a single prioritized recommendation with confidence scoring and pre-mortem analysis.
Output
Save to outputs/decision-[topic]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md
When to Use
- Quarterly prioritization with competing initiatives
- Ship / iterate / sunset decisions for features
- Build vs. buy vs. partner evaluations
- Any decision where you need structured reasoning, not gut feel
What You'll Get
| Framework |
What It Evaluates |
| Impact × Confidence Matrix |
Revenue impact weighted by execution certainty |
| Strategic Alignment |
Weighted scoring against company goals |
| Second-Order Effects |
Downstream consequences (positive and negative) |
| Pre-Mortem Analysis |
"It's December and this failed — what went wrong?" |
Plus:
- Synthesized Recommendation with confidence score
- Actionable Next Steps with owners and dates
- Risk Register with mitigation strategies
Process
Step 1: Define the Decision
I'll ask:
"What decision are you facing? List the options you're considering (2-4 options work best). Include any context about constraints, timeline, or strategic priorities."
Step 2: Impact × Confidence Matrix
For each option, I'll score:
- Impact (1-10): Revenue potential, user value, market differentiation
- Confidence (1-10): Technical feasibility, team capability, timeline certainty
- Weighted Score = Impact × Confidence / 10
Step 3: Strategic Alignment
I'll score each option against your company's strategic pillars:
- Growth & Revenue (weight: 30%)
- Customer Retention (weight: 25%)
- Technical Excellence (weight: 20%)
- Market Positioning (weight: 15%)
- Team Development (weight: 10%)
Step 4: Second-Order Effects
For each option, I'll map:
- Positive cascades: What else gets better if this succeeds?
- Negative cascades: What breaks or gets harder?
- Opportunity costs: What can't you do if you pick this?
Step 5: Pre-Mortem
For the top option:
"It's 6 months from now. This initiative failed. What went wrong?"
I'll generate 4-5 failure scenarios with probability estimates and mitigations.
Step 6: Synthesis
I'll combine all four frameworks into:
- Recommended option with overall confidence
- Key conditions that must be true for this to work
- Decision reversibility — how easy is it to change course?
- Next steps with specific owners and timelines
Demo Scenario: Quarterly Prioritization
Input:
"We need to pick one initiative for Q2. Options: (A) AI-powered analytics dashboard, (B) Enterprise SSO + compliance features, (C) Mobile app v2 redesign. We're a B2B SaaS with 200 enterprise customers, $15M ARR, trying to move upmarket."
Sample Impact × Confidence Matrix:
| Option |
Impact |
Confidence |
Weighted |
Rationale |
| A: AI Analytics |
8 |
6 |
4.8 |
High differentiation but unproven tech stack |
| B: Enterprise SSO |
7 |
9 |
6.3 |
Clear requirements, proven patterns, direct revenue |
| C: Mobile Redesign |
5 |
7 |
3.5 |
Nice-to-have, not blocking deals |
Sample Pre-Mortem (Option B: Enterprise SSO):
| Failure Scenario |
Probability |
Mitigation |
| SSO integration testing takes 3x longer due to customer IdP variations |
35% |
Start with top 3 IdPs only (Okta, Azure AD, OneLogin) |
| Compliance certifications (SOC2 Type II) delayed by audit backlog |
25% |
Begin audit prep in parallel, don't gate launch on cert |
| Enterprise deals close but at lower ACV than modeled |
20% |
Pre-negotiate 2 pilot deals before committing Q2 scope |
| Team morale drops working on "boring" infrastructure |
15% |
Frame as career growth; SSO expertise is marketable |
Tips
- Include constraints — Budget, timeline, team size, technical debt
- Be honest about unknowns — "We're not sure if X" is better than guessing
- 3 options is ideal — 2 feels binary, 4+ gets noisy
1---2name: decision-engine3description: Multi-framework strategic analysis for product decisions. Use when: prioritize features, evaluate trade-offs, strategic decision, impact analysis, pre-mortem, ship or sunset, quarterly planning, compare options, confidence scoring.4---56# Decision Engine78Apply four analytical frameworks to any product decision, then synthesize into a single prioritized recommendation with confidence scoring and pre-mortem analysis.910## Output11Save to `outputs/decision-[topic]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md`1213## When to Use14- Quarterly prioritization with competing initiatives15- Ship / iterate / sunset decisions for features16- Build vs. buy vs. partner evaluations17- Any decision where you need structured reasoning, not gut feel1819## What You'll Get2021| Framework | What It Evaluates |22|-----------|-------------------|23| **Impact × Confidence Matrix** | Revenue impact weighted by execution certainty |24| **Strategic Alignment** | Weighted scoring against company goals |25| **Second-Order Effects** | Downstream consequences (positive and negative) |26| **Pre-Mortem Analysis** | "It's December and this failed — what went wrong?" |2728Plus:29- **Synthesized Recommendation** with confidence score30- **Actionable Next Steps** with owners and dates31- **Risk Register** with mitigation strategies3233## Process3435### Step 1: Define the Decision36I'll ask:37> "What decision are you facing? List the options you're considering (2-4 options work best). Include any context about constraints, timeline, or strategic priorities."3839### Step 2: Impact × Confidence Matrix40For each option, I'll score:41- **Impact** (1-10): Revenue potential, user value, market differentiation42- **Confidence** (1-10): Technical feasibility, team capability, timeline certainty43- **Weighted Score** = Impact × Confidence / 104445### Step 3: Strategic Alignment46I'll score each option against your company's strategic pillars:47- Growth & Revenue (weight: 30%)48- Customer Retention (weight: 25%)49- Technical Excellence (weight: 20%)50- Market Positioning (weight: 15%)51- Team Development (weight: 10%)5253### Step 4: Second-Order Effects54For each option, I'll map:55- **Positive cascades**: What else gets better if this succeeds?56- **Negative cascades**: What breaks or gets harder?57- **Opportunity costs**: What can't you do if you pick this?5859### Step 5: Pre-Mortem60For the top option:61> "It's 6 months from now. This initiative failed. What went wrong?"62I'll generate 4-5 failure scenarios with probability estimates and mitigations.6364### Step 6: Synthesis65I'll combine all four frameworks into:66- **Recommended option** with overall confidence67- **Key conditions** that must be true for this to work68- **Decision reversibility** — how easy is it to change course?69- **Next steps** with specific owners and timelines7071## Demo Scenario: Quarterly Prioritization7273**Input:**74> "We need to pick one initiative for Q2. Options: (A) AI-powered analytics dashboard, (B) Enterprise SSO + compliance features, (C) Mobile app v2 redesign. We're a B2B SaaS with 200 enterprise customers, $15M ARR, trying to move upmarket."7576**Sample Impact × Confidence Matrix:**7778| Option | Impact | Confidence | Weighted | Rationale |79|--------|--------|------------|----------|-----------|80| A: AI Analytics | 8 | 6 | 4.8 | High differentiation but unproven tech stack |81| B: Enterprise SSO | 7 | 9 | 6.3 | Clear requirements, proven patterns, direct revenue |82| C: Mobile Redesign | 5 | 7 | 3.5 | Nice-to-have, not blocking deals |8384**Sample Pre-Mortem (Option B: Enterprise SSO):**8586| Failure Scenario | Probability | Mitigation |87|---|---|---|88| SSO integration testing takes 3x longer due to customer IdP variations | 35% | Start with top 3 IdPs only (Okta, Azure AD, OneLogin) |89| Compliance certifications (SOC2 Type II) delayed by audit backlog | 25% | Begin audit prep in parallel, don't gate launch on cert |90| Enterprise deals close but at lower ACV than modeled | 20% | Pre-negotiate 2 pilot deals before committing Q2 scope |91| Team morale drops working on "boring" infrastructure | 15% | Frame as career growth; SSO expertise is marketable |9293## Tips941. **Include constraints** — Budget, timeline, team size, technical debt952. **Be honest about unknowns** — "We're not sure if X" is better than guessing963. **3 options is ideal** — 2 feels binary, 4+ gets noisy
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