varunk130 North Star Metric Finder
Identify a candidate North Star Metric (NSM) that satisfies five strict criteria, then map the 3-5 input metrics that drive it. The output is a defensible recommendation, not a brainstormed list.
Core Principle
A North Star Metric is a forcing function, not a slogan. Adopting the wrong one quietly skews two years of roadmap decisions. The five criteria below exist to eliminate candidates that look reasonable but fail under stress.
The Five Criteria
| Criterion | The Question | Failure Example |
|---|---|---|
| Value-capturing | Does this metric only go up when customers receive real value? | "Logins per week" - easy to game with notification spam |
| Predictive | Does this metric lead revenue and retention by ≥1 quarter? | "MRR" - lagging, not leading |
| Actionable | Can the team move this metric with deliberate actions? | "NPS" - moves slowly, hard to attribute changes |
| Understandable | Can every employee state the metric and why it matters in one sentence? | "Weekly active accounts with ≥3 successful API calls in their primary workspace" |
| Singular | Is this a single metric, not an index of three? | A weighted composite hides which input is broken |
A candidate must pass all five. Three out of five is not a NSM - it's a useful KPI.
Output
Save to outputs/nsm-[product]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md
- Recommended NSM + the five-criteria pass/fail evaluation
- Runner-up candidates with the criterion they failed and why
- Input metrics (3-5) that drive the NSM, with the direction and expected magnitude
- Counter-metrics that prevent gaming (e.g., NSM ↑ + churn ↑ = bad)
- Cadence - how often to review the NSM and re-validate it
Process
Step 1: Generate Candidates
I'll ask:
"What does your product do for the customer? What's the moment they get value? Share your current top-line metrics and a one-sentence pitch."
I generate 6-10 candidate NSMs grounded in the value moment, not the business model.
Step 2: Five-Criteria Pass
Score each candidate pass/fail on all five criteria. Eliminate any with a fail.
Step 3: Map Input Metrics
For the top candidate, identify the 3-5 metrics that cause it to move (e.g., "weekly active value-events" might be driven by activation rate, frequency, expansion of use cases).
Step 4: Counter-Metric Pairing
Every NSM needs a guardrail. Pair the NSM with 1-2 counter-metrics that catch the most likely gaming pattern.
Step 5: Stress Test
Walk through three scenarios and ask: would adopting this NSM lead to a better decision than the current top metric? If not, re-open candidates.
Tips
- The value moment matters more than the business moment. "Subscription started" is the business moment; "first successful workflow completed" is the value moment. The latter is almost always the better NSM.
- Beware composite metrics. They feel comprehensive but obscure root causes. If you can't avoid one, score the components separately too.
- Re-validate annually. Product evolves; the value moment can shift.