vbrevik 📈 Financial Model — Business Financial Projections
Build monthly revenue projections, unit economics, break-even analysis, scenario modeling, and cash flow forecasts with key metrics dashboards.
Activation
When this skill activates, output:
📈 Financial Model — Building your financial projections...
| Context | Status |
|---|---|
| User says "financial model", "projections", "revenue forecast" | ACTIVE |
| User wants unit economics, break-even, or cash flow analysis | ACTIVE |
| User mentions MRR, churn, CAC, LTV, or runway | ACTIVE |
| User wants to set pricing (not model revenue) | DORMANT — see pricing-strategy |
| User wants to generate an invoice | DORMANT — see invoice-generator |
| User wants to scope an MVP (budget is secondary) | DORMANT — see mvp-scoper |
Protocol
Step 1: Gather Inputs
Ask the user for:
- Business type: SaaS, e-commerce, service business, marketplace, info product?
- Revenue streams: How do you make money? (subscriptions, one-time sales, usage fees, ads)
- Pricing: What do you charge? (per plan, per unit, per transaction)
- Current metrics (if existing): Current MRR, customer count, churn rate
- Cost structure: Major expenses (team, hosting, tools, marketing)
- Growth assumptions: How will you acquire customers? Expected growth rate?
- Funding status: Bootstrapped, pre-seed, seed, Series A?
Step 2: Build Monthly Revenue Projections (12 Months)
SaaS / Subscription Model:
── MONTHLY REVENUE PROJECTION ─────────────
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12
New [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n]
Churned -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n] -[n]
Active [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n] [n]
ARPU $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x]
MRR $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x]
ARR $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x] $[x]
Revenue formulas:
- New customers = marketing spend / CAC (or organic growth rate)
- Churned customers = previous active × monthly churn rate
- Active customers = previous active + new − churned
- MRR = active customers × ARPU
- ARR = MRR × 12
E-commerce / Transactional Model:
Orders/mo × Average Order Value = Gross Revenue
Gross Revenue − Returns − Refunds = Net Revenue
Service Business:
Billable Hours × Hourly Rate = Revenue
— OR —
Active Clients × Monthly Retainer = Revenue
Step 3: Monthly Expense Projections
── MONTHLY EXPENSES ───────────────────────
Category M1 M2 M3 ... M12 Type
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
PEOPLE
Founder salary $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Fixed
Engineer #1 $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Fixed
Contractor $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Variable
Benefits/tax $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] % of salary
INFRASTRUCTURE
Hosting $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Scales w/ usage
SaaS tools $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Fixed (step up)
Domain/SSL $[x] — — ... — Annual
MARKETING
Paid ads $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Variable
Content $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Fixed
Tools $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Fixed
OPERATIONS
Legal/accounting $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Fixed
Insurance $[x] — — ... — Annual
Office/misc $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x] Fixed
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
TOTAL EXPENSES $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x]
Expense scaling rules:
- People: Step function — add hires at specific months
- Hosting: Linear with customer count (estimate $/customer/mo)
- Marketing: Set as % of revenue or fixed budget
- SaaS tools: Step up at tier thresholds
Step 4: Unit Economics
── UNIT ECONOMICS ─────────────────────────
Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC):
Total marketing spend / New customers acquired
CAC = $[amount]
Lifetime Value (LTV):
ARPU × (1 / monthly churn rate)
LTV = $[ARPU] × [months] = $[amount]
— OR detailed —
LTV = ARPU × Gross Margin × (1 / churn rate)
LTV = $[amount]
LTV:CAC Ratio:
$[LTV] / $[CAC] = [X]:1
Target: ≥ 3:1 (healthy), ≥ 5:1 (very healthy)
Below 3:1 → Acquisition is too expensive or LTV too low
CAC Payback Period:
CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin)
Payback = [X] months
Target: ≤ 12 months (SaaS), ≤ 3 months (e-commerce)
Gross Margin:
(Revenue − COGS) / Revenue × 100
GM = [X]%
Target: ≥ 70% (SaaS), ≥ 40% (e-commerce), ≥ 50% (services)
Monthly Churn Rate:
Lost customers / Total customers at start of month
Churn = [X]%
Target: ≤ 5% monthly (early stage), ≤ 2% (mature)
Net Revenue Retention (NRR):
(MRR at end − new MRR) / MRR at start × 100
NRR = [X]%
Target: ≥ 100% (expansion offsets churn)
Step 5: Break-Even Analysis
── BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS ────────────────────
Fixed Costs (monthly): $[amount]
Variable Cost per Customer: $[amount]
Revenue per Customer: $[amount]
Contribution Margin: $[revenue − variable cost]
Break-even Customers = Fixed Costs / Contribution Margin
Break-even Customers = [number]
Break-even Revenue = Break-even Customers × Revenue per Customer
Break-even Revenue = $[amount]/month
Current trajectory: Break-even in Month [X]
Revenue ─────── Expenses
$│ / /
│ / ════/═══ Fixed + Variable
│ / ════/
│ / ════/
│ / ════/
│/══/──────────────────────── Break-even point
│/ Month [X]
└────────────────────────────────
M1 M3 M5 M7 M9 M12
Step 6: Scenario Modeling
Build three scenarios:
── SCENARIO COMPARISON ────────────────────
Conservative Moderate Aggressive
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ASSUMPTIONS
Growth rate/mo [X]% [X]% [X]%
Churn rate/mo [X]% [X]% [X]%
CAC $[X] $[X] $[X]
ARPU $[X] $[X] $[X]
Marketing spend/mo $[X] $[X] $[X]
MONTH 6 METRICS
Active customers [n] [n] [n]
MRR $[X] $[X] $[X]
Monthly burn $[X] $[X] $[X]
Cash position $[X] $[X] $[X]
MONTH 12 METRICS
Active customers [n] [n] [n]
MRR $[X] $[X] $[X]
ARR $[X] $[X] $[X]
Cumulative revenue $[X] $[X] $[X]
Profit/Loss (mo) $[X] $[X] $[X]
Break-even month [M] [M] [M]
Runway remaining [X] months [X] months [X] months
Scenario definitions:
- Conservative: Lower growth, higher churn, higher CAC — what if things go slowly?
- Moderate: Realistic assumptions based on comparable companies
- Aggressive: Higher growth, lower churn, lower CAC — what if things go very well?
Step 7: Cash Flow & Runway
── CASH FLOW PROJECTION ───────────────────
M1 M2 M3 ... M12
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Revenue $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x]
Expenses $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x]
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Net $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x]
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Cash $[x] $[x] $[x] ... $[x]
(starting cash + cumulative net)
── RUNWAY CALCULATION ─────────────────────
Starting cash: $[amount]
Average monthly burn: $[amount]
Months of runway: [X] months
Cash-out date: [month/year]
If runway < 6 months → URGENT: reduce burn or raise funds
If runway 6-12 months → START fundraising or path to profit
If runway > 12 months → COMFORTABLE: focus on growth
Step 8: Key Metrics Dashboard
── KEY METRICS DASHBOARD ──────────────────
REVENUE
MRR: $[amount] ([+X]% MoM)
ARR: $[amount]
Revenue growth: [X]% MoM
CUSTOMERS
Total active: [n]
New this month: [n]
Churned: [n]
Net new: [n]
UNIT ECONOMICS
CAC: $[amount]
LTV: $[amount]
LTV:CAC: [X]:1
Payback period: [X] months
PROFITABILITY
Gross margin: [X]%
Net margin: [X]%
Monthly burn: $[amount]
Runway: [X] months
EFFICIENCY
Revenue per employee: $[amount]
CAC payback: [X] months
NRR: [X]%
Quick ratio: [X] (new MRR / lost MRR)
Step 9: Output
Present the complete financial model:
━━━ FINANCIAL MODEL: [Business Name] ━━━━━━
── REVENUE PROJECTIONS (12 Mo) ────────────
[monthly revenue table]
── EXPENSE PROJECTIONS (12 Mo) ────────────
[monthly expense table by category]
── UNIT ECONOMICS ─────────────────────────
CAC: $[X] | LTV: $[X] | LTV:CAC: [X]:1
Payback: [X] mo | Gross Margin: [X]%
── BREAK-EVEN ─────────────────────────────
Break-even customers: [N]
Break-even revenue: $[X]/mo
Projected break-even: Month [X]
── SCENARIOS ──────────────────────────────
Conservative: ARR $[X] by M12, break-even M[X]
Moderate: ARR $[X] by M12, break-even M[X]
Aggressive: ARR $[X] by M12, break-even M[X]
── CASH FLOW & RUNWAY ─────────────────────
Starting cash: $[X]
Monthly burn: $[X]
Runway: [X] months
── METRICS DASHBOARD ──────────────────────
[key metrics summary]
── ASSUMPTIONS & RISKS ────────────────────
[list of key assumptions with sensitivity notes]
Inputs
- Business type and revenue model
- Pricing and current metrics (if existing)
- Cost structure (people, infrastructure, marketing)
- Growth and churn assumptions
- Starting cash and funding status
Outputs
- 12-month revenue projection (monthly granularity)
- 12-month expense projection by category
- Unit economics (CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC, payback period, gross margin, churn, NRR)
- Break-even analysis with customer and revenue targets
- 3-scenario comparison (conservative, moderate, aggressive)
- Cash flow projection with runway calculation
- Key metrics dashboard (MRR, ARR, growth, efficiency)
Level History
- Lv.1 — Base: 12-month revenue/expense projections (SaaS, e-commerce, service models), unit economics (CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC, payback, margins, churn, NRR), break-even analysis, 3-scenario modeling (conservative/moderate/aggressive), cash flow with runway calculation, key metrics dashboard. (Origin: MemStack v3.2, Mar 2026)