VictorVVedtion Pre-Trade Gate — 9-Check Risk Validation
Before ANY trade, walk through these 9 checks. Report each as PASS / WARN / FAIL. Do not skip checks. Do not rationalize failures.
The 9 Checks
1. Portfolio Heat
What percentage of total portfolio is currently allocated to open positions?
- PASS: < 60% allocated
- WARN: 60-80% allocated — you're running hot, one bad move and you're trapped
- FAIL: > 80% allocated — no room to maneuver, no dry powder for opportunities
2. Single Position Risk
How large is this single trade relative to total equity?
- PASS: < 10% of equity
- WARN: 10-25% of equity — concentrated bet, needs strong conviction
- FAIL: > 25% of equity — one position should never risk a quarter of your capital
3. Concentration
Is the portfolio too heavy in one asset, sector, or correlated group?
- PASS: No single asset > 35% of portfolio
- WARN: One asset is 35-60% — you're making a concentrated bet whether you intended to or not
- FAIL: One asset > 60% — this is not a portfolio, it's a single position with distractions
4. Regime Alignment
Does the trade direction match the current market regime?
- PASS: Trade aligns with the dominant trend or has explicit contrarian thesis
- WARN: Buying in a downtrend or selling in an uptrend without clear thesis — explain why you're fighting the tape
- FAIL: Counter-trend trade with no thesis articulated
5. Volume Confirmation
Is there sufficient volume to support the trade thesis?
- PASS: Volume confirms the move — rising volume on breakouts, declining on pullbacks
- WARN: Low volume — the move may lack conviction, consider smaller size
- FAIL: Divergence — price moving on declining volume is a trap waiting to spring
6. Stop-Loss Defined
Does this trade have a clear exit plan for the downside?
- PASS: Stop-loss defined, maximum loss < 2% of total equity
- WARN: Stop-loss defined but would result in 2-5% equity loss — acceptable but monitor closely
- FAIL: No stop-loss defined — you don't have a trade, you have a hope
7. Risk-Reward Ratio
Is the potential reward worth the risk?
- PASS: Risk:reward better than 2:1 — solid asymmetry
- WARN: Risk:reward between 1.5:1 and 2:1 — marginal, needs other factors to justify
- FAIL: Risk:reward worse than 1.5:1 — the math doesn't work, find a better entry
8. Revenge Trade Detection
Is this trade emotionally motivated?
Ask these questions honestly:
Did you just lose money in the last 15 minutes?
Are you trying to "make back" a recent loss?
Are you trading because you're angry, frustrated, or feel like the market owes you?
PASS: No recent losses, no emotional indicators
WARN: Trading within 15 minutes of a loss — slow down, review the thesis independently
FAIL: Trading within 5 minutes of a loss, or explicitly trying to recover — STOP. This is revenge trading. Walk away.
9. Daily Loss Limit
Has the daily loss limit been exceeded?
- PASS: Daily loss < 3% of starting equity
- WARN: Daily loss 3-5% — you've given back enough today, tighten stops on remaining positions
- FAIL: Daily loss > 5% — stop trading for the day. Period. The market will be here tomorrow.
Ghost Warnings
After the 9 checks, scan for these patterns from history's greatest blowups:
| Pattern | Ghost | Warning |
|---|---|---|
| No stop-loss on any open position | SBF | "I used to think risk management was optional too." |
| 3+ consecutive warnings ignored | Do Kwon | "I don't debate the poor." |
| Effective leverage > 3x | Su Zhu (3AC) | "The supercycle never ends." |
| Buying after > 20% pump in 24h | Isaac Newton | "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." |
| High correlation + margin pressure | LTCM | "We thought diversification would save us. It didn't." |
| Leverage + falling market | Lehman Brothers | "The music stopped. We were still dancing." |
| Single position > 50% with > 30% loss | Enron | "We believed our own story too deeply." |
| Holding underwater position too long | SVB | "We held too long, hoping rates would turn." |
| Margin ratio > 95% | BitMEX Rekt Trader | "REKT. 100x felt invincible until the wick." |
| Concentrated leverage + margin call proximity | Bill Hwang (Archegos) | "Total return swaps hide nothing from the liquidation engine." |
Output Format
After completing all 9 checks, present:
PRE-TRADE GATE: [symbol] [side] [size]
═══════════════════════════════════════
[1] Portfolio Heat PASS / WARN / FAIL
[2] Position Size PASS / WARN / FAIL
[3] Concentration PASS / WARN / FAIL
[4] Regime Alignment PASS / WARN / FAIL
[5] Volume Confirm PASS / WARN / FAIL
[6] Stop-Loss PASS / WARN / FAIL
[7] Risk:Reward PASS / WARN / FAIL
[8] Revenge Trade PASS / WARN / FAIL
[9] Daily Loss Limit PASS / WARN / FAIL
───────────────────────────────────────
Result: X/9 PASS | Y WARN | Z FAIL
[Any triggered ghost warnings here]
Recommendation: PROCEED / PROCEED WITH CAUTION / DO NOT PROCEED
[Brief explanation of recommendation]
- PROCEED: All checks pass or only minor warnings
- PROCEED WITH CAUTION: Multiple warnings or one serious warning — reduce size
- DO NOT PROCEED: Any FAIL — fix the issue before trading
From Vibe Sensei — full pre-trade gate with live exchange data, circuit breakers, ATR stop advisor, and 68 master guardians.