Critical Intuition & Sixth Sense
Stress-test existing ideas and detect hidden patterns. Backward-looking, convergent analysis — complements creative-problem-solving (forward-looking, divergent generation).
When to Use / Not Use
Use when:
- Reading between the lines on proposals, communications, or situations
- Identifying what is missing, hidden, or unstated
- Critically evaluating arguments, evidence, or reasoning
- Detecting early warning signs or red flags
- Synthesizing complex information under uncertainty
- "Something feels off" but you cannot articulate why
Do NOT use when:
- Generating new creative solutions -> use
creative-problem-solving
- Brainstorming or strategic reframing -> use
creative-problem-solving
- Building structured risk registers -> use
risk-management
- Making final decisions between options -> use
prioritization
Decision Tree
What kind of analysis do you need?
├── "What am I missing?" or "What could go wrong?"
│ └── Gap analysis + red flag detection (§Step 2, §Step 6)
├── "Read between the lines" on a document
│ └── Multi-level reading (§Step 1: surface, subtext, meta)
├── "Is this argument/evidence sound?"
│ └── Critical reasoning (§Step 3: argument structure, fallacies, evidence)
├── "How likely is this?" or "What should I believe?"
│ └── Probabilistic assessment (§Step 4: Bayesian, multiple hypotheses)
├── "Something feels off but I can't say why"
│ └── Intuitive synthesis (§Step 5: gestalt, micro-signals)
├── "What should I watch for going forward?"
│ └── Early warning detection (§Step 6: leading indicators, tipping points)
└── Need to GENERATE new ideas, not evaluate existing ones?
└── Use creative-problem-solving instead
Seven-Step Analysis Process
Step 1: Multi-Level Reading
| Level |
What to Examine |
Question |
| Surface |
What is explicitly stated |
"What are the obvious facts?" |
| Subtext |
What is implied but not stated |
"What assumptions are embedded? What's conspicuously absent?" |
| Meta |
Why it's communicated this way |
"What are the incentives? What power dynamics are at play?" |
For techniques, read references/pattern-recognition.md.
Step 2: Signal Detection
- Pattern recognition: What patterns emerge? Signal vs. noise? Meta-patterns?
- Anomaly detection: What doesn't fit? Discontinuities? Unusually present or absent?
- Micro-signals: Timing variations, emphasis patterns, language hedging, topic avoidance
- Gap analysis: What information is missing that would normally be present?
For subtle signal detection, read references/sixth-sense.md.
Step 3: Critical Reasoning
- Argument structure: Identify premises and conclusions, evaluate logical validity, detect hidden assumptions
- Fallacy detection: Formal fallacies, informal fallacies, statistical fallacies, motivated reasoning
- Evidence evaluation: Source credibility, data quality, sample representativeness, confounding factors
For frameworks, read references/critical-thinking.md.
Step 4: Probabilistic Assessment
- Bayesian thinking: Prior probability → evidence strength → updated probability → residual uncertainty
- Multiple hypotheses: Generate alternatives, assess relative likelihood, identify discriminating evidence
- Confidence calibration: How confident should you be? What would change your mind?
Step 5: Intuitive Synthesis
- Gestalt perception: Combine disparate cues, see the whole picture, emergent understanding
- Cross-domain connections: Analogical reasoning, structural similarities, principle transfer
- Tacit knowledge: Pattern matching without explicit rules — gut feeling as compressed expertise
For synthesis techniques, read references/synthesis-frameworks.md.
Step 6: Early Warning Detection
- Leading indicators: Upstream signals, stress accumulation, resilience degradation, variance increases
- Trajectory sensing: Momentum assessment, inflection point detection, tipping point proximity
- Red flag clusters: Multiple small concerns, coincidence accumulation, pattern breaks
For details, read references/sixth-sense.md.
Step 7: Judgment Formation
- Information integration: Combine quantitative and qualitative, triangulate sources, weight by reliability
- Decision under uncertainty: Expected value, scenario analysis, robust options
- Metacognitive check: How confident am I? What biases might affect me? What am I missing?
Analysis Depth by Stakes
| Stakes Level |
Steps |
Techniques |
| Low (minor, reversible) |
Steps 1-2 + red flag scan |
Surface + subtext reading, quick pattern check |
| Medium (significant, partially reversible) |
Full 7-step process |
All techniques, probabilistic assessment |
| High (irreversible, major consequences) |
Full process + extended patterns |
Multiple hypothesis testing, explicit metacognitive checks, counter-argument generation |
Anti-Patterns
| Anti-Pattern |
Problem |
Solution |
| Over-reading: finding signals that aren't there |
Every proposal looks suspicious; alarming conclusions from ambiguous data |
Calibrate confidence; distinguish high-confidence findings from speculation; require corroborating evidence |
| Analysis paralysis: too many hypotheses |
10 possible interpretations but no recommendation |
Force probabilistic ranking; assign relative likelihoods; identify discriminating evidence that would resolve ambiguity |
| Confirmation bias in direction |
"Gut feeling" biases analysis toward confirming initial suspicion |
Explicit metacognitive check: "What would change my mind?" Generate strongest counter-argument |
| Asking for validation not analysis |
"Confirm this is a good plan" biases toward agreement |
Ask "What am I missing?" or "What could go wrong?" instead |
| No artifact to analyze |
"What do you think about acquisitions generally?" is theory, not analysis |
Share the actual document, proposal, or situation details; subtext reading requires actual text |
| Paraphrasing instead of sharing originals |
Paraphrasing already filters out the signals the skill would detect |
Paste the full document; let the skill read between the actual lines |
| Skipping metacognitive check |
Analysis blind to its own biases and gaps |
Always complete Step 7: "What biases might affect me? What am I missing?" |
| Creative-problem-solving overlap |
Trying to generate solutions with a critique skill |
Generate with creative-problem-solving, then evaluate here; they are complementary opposites |
Validation Checklist
Before finalizing judgment:
Integration
- creative-problem-solving — Generative counterpart: create ideas there, evaluate here
- risk-management — Structured risk frameworks that this skill's pattern detection feeds into
- systems-thinking — Deeper feedback loop analysis for what this skill identifies
- prioritization — Ranking the risks and opportunities this skill surfaces
- outcome-orientation — Define measurable criteria for monitoring early warning indicators
References
references/pattern-recognition.md — Advanced pattern detection, signal vs. noise, anomaly detectionreferences/critical-thinking.md — Argument analysis, logical structure, fallacy detectionreferences/sixth-sense.md — Micro-signals, subtle energy shifts, early warning systemsreferences/synthesis-frameworks.md — Multi-source synthesis, decision under uncertaintyreferences/extended-patterns.md — Advanced techniques, red/green flag catalogs, output templates
1---2name: critical-intuition3description: Stress-test, critique, and challenge existing ideas through pattern recognition, bias detection, Bayesian reasoning, blind-spot exposure, and red-flag identification. Use when the user asks to stress-test a plan, challenge assumptions, find flaws, identify risks in an idea, expose hidden biases, audit a proposal for blind spots, or "poke holes in this". NOT for generating new ideas or solutions (use creative-problem-solving), NOT for structured risk registers or mitigation plans (use risk-management), NOT for brainstorming or divergent thinking (use creative-problem-solving).4---56# Critical Intuition & Sixth Sense78Stress-test existing ideas and detect hidden patterns. Backward-looking, convergent analysis — complements creative-problem-solving (forward-looking, divergent generation).910## When to Use / Not Use1112**Use when:**13- Reading between the lines on proposals, communications, or situations14- Identifying what is missing, hidden, or unstated15- Critically evaluating arguments, evidence, or reasoning16- Detecting early warning signs or red flags17- Synthesizing complex information under uncertainty18- "Something feels off" but you cannot articulate why1920**Do NOT use when:**21- Generating new creative solutions -> use `creative-problem-solving`22- Brainstorming or strategic reframing -> use `creative-problem-solving`23- Building structured risk registers -> use `risk-management`24- Making final decisions between options -> use `prioritization`2526## Decision Tree2728```29What kind of analysis do you need?30├── "What am I missing?" or "What could go wrong?"31│ └── Gap analysis + red flag detection (§Step 2, §Step 6)32├── "Read between the lines" on a document33│ └── Multi-level reading (§Step 1: surface, subtext, meta)34├── "Is this argument/evidence sound?"35│ └── Critical reasoning (§Step 3: argument structure, fallacies, evidence)36├── "How likely is this?" or "What should I believe?"37│ └── Probabilistic assessment (§Step 4: Bayesian, multiple hypotheses)38├── "Something feels off but I can't say why"39│ └── Intuitive synthesis (§Step 5: gestalt, micro-signals)40├── "What should I watch for going forward?"41│ └── Early warning detection (§Step 6: leading indicators, tipping points)42└── Need to GENERATE new ideas, not evaluate existing ones?43 └── Use creative-problem-solving instead44```4546## Seven-Step Analysis Process4748### Step 1: Multi-Level Reading4950| Level | What to Examine | Question |51|-------|----------------|----------|52| Surface | What is explicitly stated | "What are the obvious facts?" |53| Subtext | What is implied but not stated | "What assumptions are embedded? What's conspicuously absent?" |54| Meta | Why it's communicated this way | "What are the incentives? What power dynamics are at play?" |5556For techniques, read `references/pattern-recognition.md`.5758### Step 2: Signal Detection5960- **Pattern recognition**: What patterns emerge? Signal vs. noise? Meta-patterns?61- **Anomaly detection**: What doesn't fit? Discontinuities? Unusually present or absent?62- **Micro-signals**: Timing variations, emphasis patterns, language hedging, topic avoidance63- **Gap analysis**: What information is missing that would normally be present?6465For subtle signal detection, read `references/sixth-sense.md`.6667### Step 3: Critical Reasoning6869- **Argument structure**: Identify premises and conclusions, evaluate logical validity, detect hidden assumptions70- **Fallacy detection**: Formal fallacies, informal fallacies, statistical fallacies, motivated reasoning71- **Evidence evaluation**: Source credibility, data quality, sample representativeness, confounding factors7273For frameworks, read `references/critical-thinking.md`.7475### Step 4: Probabilistic Assessment7677- **Bayesian thinking**: Prior probability → evidence strength → updated probability → residual uncertainty78- **Multiple hypotheses**: Generate alternatives, assess relative likelihood, identify discriminating evidence79- **Confidence calibration**: How confident should you be? What would change your mind?8081### Step 5: Intuitive Synthesis8283- **Gestalt perception**: Combine disparate cues, see the whole picture, emergent understanding84- **Cross-domain connections**: Analogical reasoning, structural similarities, principle transfer85- **Tacit knowledge**: Pattern matching without explicit rules — gut feeling as compressed expertise8687For synthesis techniques, read `references/synthesis-frameworks.md`.8889### Step 6: Early Warning Detection9091- **Leading indicators**: Upstream signals, stress accumulation, resilience degradation, variance increases92- **Trajectory sensing**: Momentum assessment, inflection point detection, tipping point proximity93- **Red flag clusters**: Multiple small concerns, coincidence accumulation, pattern breaks9495For details, read `references/sixth-sense.md`.9697### Step 7: Judgment Formation9899- **Information integration**: Combine quantitative and qualitative, triangulate sources, weight by reliability100- **Decision under uncertainty**: Expected value, scenario analysis, robust options101- **Metacognitive check**: How confident am I? What biases might affect me? What am I missing?102103## Analysis Depth by Stakes104105| Stakes Level | Steps | Techniques |106|---|---|---|107| Low (minor, reversible) | Steps 1-2 + red flag scan | Surface + subtext reading, quick pattern check |108| Medium (significant, partially reversible) | Full 7-step process | All techniques, probabilistic assessment |109| High (irreversible, major consequences) | Full process + extended patterns | Multiple hypothesis testing, explicit metacognitive checks, counter-argument generation |110111## Anti-Patterns112113| Anti-Pattern | Problem | Solution |114|---|---|---|115| Over-reading: finding signals that aren't there | Every proposal looks suspicious; alarming conclusions from ambiguous data | Calibrate confidence; distinguish high-confidence findings from speculation; require corroborating evidence |116| Analysis paralysis: too many hypotheses | 10 possible interpretations but no recommendation | Force probabilistic ranking; assign relative likelihoods; identify discriminating evidence that would resolve ambiguity |117| Confirmation bias in direction | "Gut feeling" biases analysis toward confirming initial suspicion | Explicit metacognitive check: "What would change my mind?" Generate strongest counter-argument |118| Asking for validation not analysis | "Confirm this is a good plan" biases toward agreement | Ask "What am I missing?" or "What could go wrong?" instead |119| No artifact to analyze | "What do you think about acquisitions generally?" is theory, not analysis | Share the actual document, proposal, or situation details; subtext reading requires actual text |120| Paraphrasing instead of sharing originals | Paraphrasing already filters out the signals the skill would detect | Paste the full document; let the skill read between the actual lines |121| Skipping metacognitive check | Analysis blind to its own biases and gaps | Always complete Step 7: "What biases might affect me? What am I missing?" |122| Creative-problem-solving overlap | Trying to generate solutions with a critique skill | Generate with creative-problem-solving, then evaluate here; they are complementary opposites |123124## Validation Checklist125126Before finalizing judgment:127- [ ] Read at multiple levels (surface, subtext, meta)?128- [ ] Detected patterns and anomalies?129- [ ] Evaluated reasoning and evidence rigorously?130- [ ] Checked for cognitive biases?131- [ ] Synthesized multiple signals intuitively?132- [ ] Calibrated confidence appropriately?133- [ ] Acknowledged what you don't know?134- [ ] Judgment is actionable and well-grounded?135136## Integration137138- creative-problem-solving — Generative counterpart: create ideas there, evaluate here139- risk-management — Structured risk frameworks that this skill's pattern detection feeds into140- systems-thinking — Deeper feedback loop analysis for what this skill identifies141- prioritization — Ranking the risks and opportunities this skill surfaces142- outcome-orientation — Define measurable criteria for monitoring early warning indicators143144## References145146- `references/pattern-recognition.md` — Advanced pattern detection, signal vs. noise, anomaly detection147- `references/critical-thinking.md` — Argument analysis, logical structure, fallacy detection148- `references/sixth-sense.md` — Micro-signals, subtle energy shifts, early warning systems149- `references/synthesis-frameworks.md` — Multi-source synthesis, decision under uncertainty150- `references/extended-patterns.md` — Advanced techniques, red/green flag catalogs, output templates
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